Crypto Prices Crashed, But True Believers Are Holding On

Crypto prices plunged this year, but Drew Larsen says that is no concern.

Over the past two years, Mr. Larsen, 54, has poured about 10% of his savings into cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Ethereum and solana. He believes it is a smart hedge for his investment portfolio, the rest of which is in real estate, stocks and bonds. But more than that, he feels a deep connection to the idea of digital assets, which makes the pain of bitcoin’s plunge this year a lot more bearable.

“I actually do think it has the potential to save the world,” said Mr. Larsen, a founder of two software companies who now lives in Colorado with his family. So far, his crypto holdings have lost about 40% in value this year.

With the crypto market crashing, there is a growing divide between investors who are looking to make money and those who believe in its mission. Some true believers, like Mr. Larsen, tout crypto as a way to replace, or at least push back against, big banks and the traditional fiat-money system. Others are more enthusiastic about blockchain, a kind of digital ledger underpinning cryptocurrencies, that could be used to change how records are tracked and stored in areas as varied as medicine and real estate.

Some of the traders knuckling down on crypto are fairly well off, which means they have money to lose—and a higher tolerance for risk. Many, including Mr. Larsen, didn’t have their investments tied up in lending platforms like Celsius Network LLC and Voyager Digital Ltd., both of which have frozen withdrawals and filed for bankruptcy protection. Customers there haven’t been able to access their money for weeks.

Some investors buy cryptocurrencies as if they are stocks, holding them in a crypto exchange and hoping prices rise so they can make a profit. Others deposit their crypto into yield-earning accounts with firms that then invest those digital assets or lend them out to others for a fee. Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency, is riding the wave of July’s market rally. It is up about 28% in July, but is still down about 65% from its November record high.

Maria Saavedra, a 31-year-old software test engineer in California, said she views most cryptocurrencies as hyped-up assets with little legitimate value. But in March, after the crypto market had already endured a rough few months, she started buying the two biggest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and Ethereum. She has invested about US$8,000 total.

Ms. Saavedra says the plunge in prices makes it a great time to buy on the cheap. She bought $1,000 in Ethereum on Thursday when leading cryptocurrencies rallied after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increase.

Like Mr. Larsen, she said she supports stricter regulation for the crypto market. She thinks it would give the industry more legitimacy—and probably give a boost to her holdings.

Her other long-term investment strategy? Handbags. Ms. Saavedra recently paid $10,000 for a black Hermès Kelly bag and plans to cash out the investment when she nears retirement. Until then, the gold-plated bag sits in her closet, resting in its original cloth bag and stuffed to keep its shape.

Zachary Bertucci, a 25-year-old real-estate investment analyst in Chicago, has put about 10% of his investment portfolio in Ethereum and lesser-known cryptocurrencies like chainlink and polygon. Mr. Bertucci started buying crypto in September, when prices were still on the way up. His holdings have lost about half their value,but he plans to keep buying more each month and hopes to eventually rake in enough gains to buy an investment property.

“That money you’re investing, it could go away or it could triple,” Mr. Bertucci said. “As long as you’re willing to accept that risk, then you’re OK.” The other 90% of his investment portfolio is in stocks and an ETF that mirrors the S&P 500.

Not all crypto believers are loading up.

Tyler Lahti began investing in crypto in 2014, adding about $5,000 total in bitcoin and Ethereum up until early this year. After the recent downturn, he doesn’t plan to add more.

Still, Mr. Lahti said he is bullish on the sector. As an accountant, he has high hopes for smart contracts, which are software programs on the blockchain that automatically execute transactions between parties.

“If it does work out, it’s beneficial to the world and I’ll make money,” said Mr. Lahti, who is 31 and lives in Georgia.

Mr. Larsen, the Colorado entrepreneur, has experience dealing with risk. He co-founded a sales-related tech company in 1999, shortly before the dot-com bubble burst, then exited in 2009. He sold another venture, a software-based workout platform, in 2019. The following year, he got into crypto, partly because he didn’t want to “sit around doing nothing.”

Mr. Larsen attends a monthly crypto happy hour, where topics of conversation can range from the price of bitcoin to how to persuade your spouse to invest in it. Still, he said he doesn’t believe most cryptocurrencies are for the average investor, likening crypto to investing in early-stage startups.

The exception, in his mind, is bitcoin. He views it as a long-term savings method, and he thinks he might one day hand down his bitcoin holdings to his children.

“I guess I would say I came for the money,” Mr. Larsen said, “but stayed because of the philosophy.”

Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.

The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.

Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.

A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.

Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.

Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .

Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.

Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.

The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.

The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.

Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.

Crypto Prices Crashed, But True Believers Are Holding On

A divide is growing between investors looking to make money and those who believe in crypto’s mission.