Foreign student arrivals surge in Australian states

The number of foreign students returning to Australia is on the rise, spelling good news for suburbs with high levels of student accommodation.

Data from Ray White shows that 140,000 foreign students returned to Australia in February, with NSW and Victoria leading the way.

During the height of the pandemic in 2021, areas with higher levels of student accommodation saw significant falls, with Melbourne CBD recording the highest drops. Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said rental levels in that city fell by 23 percent and prices dropped by 7 percent during 2021, which had a flow-on effect to commercial property in those areas, such as retail properties that relied on that market. Ray White data showed that prior to the pandemic, the numbers of foreign students rose steadily from just under 300,000 in 2006 to more than 800,000 in 2020 before falling to less than 100,000 during COVID.

However, figures show that 49,160 students arrived in NSW in February, with another 47,970 students heading to Victoria. Queensland was the next most popular destination, with 19,300 students arriving ahead of the start of the academic year, followed by Western Australia with 11,850.

Ms Conisbee said rents had already begun to rise quickly, reaching pre pandemic levels, although values had not kept a similar pace. That is expected to happen later this year, she said, noting she is hopeful it will spark a new construction cycle for further affordable student housing.

The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.

Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.

Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.

But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.

Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.

Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.

Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.

The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.

The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.

The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.

Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.

That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.

Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.

We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.

At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.

This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.

Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.

The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.

Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.

And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.

Foreign student arrivals surge in Australian states

As the academic year geared up, overseas students returned to Australia in droves during February

Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.