HOME PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE AS APRIL GROWTH EASES
Australia’s capital city housing markets have continued to record price growth, although higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are beginning to temper momentum.
3 min
Capital city home prices have continued to rise in April despite higher interest rates and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and the global economy.
Growth rates, however, have eased, reflecting the usual subduing effect of the lengthy April holiday month.
The national capital city median house price increased marginally by 0.2% over the April quarter to $1,297,798 compared to the March quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.
Annual national house prices are, however, 10.2% higher and have now increased for 14 consecutive months.
Most capitals reported house price increases over the month, with Brisbane and Perth the top performers, each higher by 1.3%, followed by Hobart and Darwin, both up 1.2%, Adelaide up 0.2%, with Sydney steady. Melbourne prices, however, fell 0.7%, while Canberra prices fell 1.7%.
Most also report strong annual house price growth in excess of 10%, with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide clearly the highest, up by 25.7%, 21.6%, 20.0% and 14.2% respectively.
National unit prices were also higher in the April quarter than in the March quarter, rising by 0.5% to $728,459, and have now increased by 8.2% compared to the April quarter 2025 result.
Brisbane was the top monthly performer in April, with unit prices rising by 1.7%, followed by Perth up 1.0%, Melbourne and Canberra each up 0.9%, Adelaide up 0.6%, and Hobart up 0.1%. Sydney unit prices were steady over the month; however, Darwin unit prices were down 0.8%.
Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to April 2026, at 30.1%, 27.8%, 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively.
Analysis
Capital city housing markets have generally reported higher home prices in April, although growth rates have eased compared to March.
Easing housing markets reflect the usual dampening effects of the lengthy April holiday month, although higher interest rates and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook have weighed on affordability and confidence.
Robust annual home price growth, however, continues for most capitals with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide still reporting boomtime results.
Although 2026 is still set to see home price growth generally in most capitals, the rising spectre of further interest rate increases and elevated uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the economy will continue to dampen affordability and confidence.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, however, are again set to lead capital city outcomes for both houses and units, but are unlikely to match the extraordinary 2025 results.
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record higher median house prices than Melbourne, with Perth now closing in fast on Brisbane and set to lead all but Sydney.
Underlying drivers will continue to support overall housing market activity, although the outlook for RBA interest rates is more problematic, with inflation set to accelerate and economic activity to decline as a consequence of the recent sharp increase in oil prices.
The economy, however, remains strong, with a steady, still-low jobless rate, falling unemployment, continued robust job growth, and a high participation rate.
Housing demand continues to outpace a low and diminishing housing supply, and although high post-COVID migration levels have recently eased, numbers remain strong and will add to chronic housing undersupply, supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.
Following a period of easing in rental growth, the latest data continue to show extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and clear signs that rents are on the rise again.
High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.
Ongoing government initiatives to support first-home buyers will increase demand and place further upward pressure on prices.
Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025, fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.
Although 2026 is again likely to see higher home prices, significant uncertainty has recently emerged about the near-term outlook for already-high interest rates and economic activity, which will generally dampen buyer and seller confidence.
Early signs are emerging in the recent weakening of home auction market clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
As interest rates, inflation and market sentiment fluctuate, investors are being urged to focus on data, not panic.
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The Federal Budget has created a supply freeze that could push rents higher, reduce investment and hand more of Australia’s housing stock to offshore institutions.
4 min
For months, I have been one of the few commentators openly stating what the data was already showing: property prices had begun to fall.
The latest figures confirm it. Cotality’s June 1 Home Value Index showed Sydney values down 0.9 per cent in May and Melbourne down 0.8 per cent. ANZ has cut its national capital city forecast to 2.8 per cent growth this year, down from 4.8 per cent in April. CBA has also downgraded its outlook.
So the Federal Budget arrived at the worst possible time, with the wrong prescription, to treat a problem it fundamentally misunderstands.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has suggested that making it easier for first-home buyers to get a fair crack at auctions is a good thing. The reality is more complicated.
Driving property prices down does not simply hand a discount to first-home buyers. It affects the 1.4 million Australians employed by the property sector, the 67 per cent of household wealth tied to housing, and the state government revenues that fund schools, hospitals and roads.
The government had a choice: tackle supply constraints, link migration growth to housing completions and reduce spending, or increase taxes on property investors. It chose the latter.
Property is an economic pillar
Property is not simply another investment class. It contributes about 10.6 per cent of GDP directly, up to 15 per cent when flow-on effects are included, and employs more than 1.4 million Australians. It also generates more tax revenue than mining and underpins consumer confidence through the wealth effect.
Against that backdrop, the Budget removed negative gearing from established residential properties purchased after Budget night and replaced the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with cost-base indexation and a 30 per cent minimum tax from July 1, 2027.
The government calls this fairness. I call it a misdiagnosis.
The grandfathering trap
The policy is also internally contradictory.
Properties purchased before Budget night are grandfathered, allowing existing investors to retain full negative gearing and capital gains tax benefits until they sell. The logical response is simple: hold.
That means fewer properties coming onto the market, fewer rental listings and reduced transaction volumes.
The result is likely to be higher rents, reduced stamp duty revenue and further inflationary pressure at a time when the Reserve Bank remains focused on bringing inflation under control.
The government is attempting to fight inflation with one hand while fuelling it with the other.
Who really owns investment properties?
What is often lost in this debate is who Australia’s property investors actually are.
According to ATO data, 71 per cent of investors own just one investment property. They are not wealthy property moguls.
They are teachers, nurses, police officers and small business owners who have purchased an investment property as part of their retirement strategy.
For many Australians, property remains the most tangible and trusted pathway to building long-term wealth.
Removing the incentives that supported that investment does not hurt a billionaire developer. It hurts ordinary Australians trying to secure their financial future.
Investors aren’t the affordability problem
It is true that housing affordability has deteriorated significantly over the past two decades. However, negative gearing is not the primary cause.
Research by economists Ross Kendall and Peter Tulip found planning and zoning restrictions significantly increase housing costs.
Their work showed zoning lifted detached house prices well above marginal construction costs in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.
Low interest rates, strong population growth, chronic under-supply and restricted access to development-ready land have all played a much larger role in pushing prices higher.
Punishing private investors does nothing to address these structural issues.
The Build-to-Rent advantage
At the same time the government is reducing incentives for Australian investors, it has created a more attractive tax environment for foreign institutional capital through Build-to-Rent projects.
Under current arrangements, foreign institutional investors can access a 15 per cent withholding tax rate through Managed Investment Trusts, accelerated depreciation benefits and exemptions from the new negative gearing restrictions.
State governments have added further concessions, including land tax reductions and exemptions from foreign investor surcharges.
Australian mum-and-dad investors receive none of these advantages.
The cumulative effect is striking. Foreign institutions can access a range of tax benefits unavailable to Australian private investors, while local investors lose concessions they have relied upon for decades.
This is not solving the housing crisis. It risks transferring ownership of Australia’s rental housing stock from local investors to offshore institutions.
Why state governments should worry
There are already signs these changes are affecting the credit cycle.
Major banks are removing negative gearing benefits from serviceability calculations for investment loans.
As market conditions soften, lenders become more cautious and investors find it harder to secure finance.
That matters because property transactions are a major source of state government revenue.
In NSW alone, transfer duty generates more than $12 billion annually. If transaction volumes fall significantly, the impact on state budgets will be substantial.
The consequences extend beyond stamp duty to GST collections, payroll tax receipts and land tax revenue.
The 95 per cent loan trap
There is another aspect of the Budget that concerns me.
The government has expanded first-home buyer deposit guarantee schemes, allowing eligible purchasers to buy with a five per cent deposit backed by the Commonwealth.
The intention is admirable. The timing may not be.
If prices in Sydney and Melbourne fall further, buyers entering the market with 95 per cent loan-to-value mortgages could quickly find themselves in negative equity.
They become trapped. They cannot sell without crystallising a loss, while the taxpayer guarantees the loan and the bank remains protected.
That is not wealth creation. It is a debt obligation.
After three decades working with debt and investment, I would never encourage my own children to borrow at a 95 per cent loan-to-value ratio.
A policy built on politics
The government had an opportunity to address the housing crisis by encouraging supply, reforming planning systems and reducing development costs.
Instead, it chose Robin Hood politics.
The optics may be appealing, but the economics are not.
Australians may ultimately pay the price through higher rents, weaker investment and a future in which an increasing share of the nation’s housing stock is owned by offshore institutions rather than local investors.
Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.
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