HOUSING CRISIS WON’T BE SOLVED BY DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES, PROPERTY EXPERTS WARN
Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.
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Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.
Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.
Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.
“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.
“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”
Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.
Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.
“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.
Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.
He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.
“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.
“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”
Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.
He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.
McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.
While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.
“People are looking for value for money,” she said.
She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.
“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.
The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.
“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.
He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.
While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.
“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.
Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.
Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.
McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.
Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.
“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.
“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”
As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.
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Australia’s median advertised rent has climbed to a record high, with every capital city recording quarterly price growth despite a slight lift in vacancy rates.
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Australia’s rental market has reached a new milestone, with national median advertised rents climbing to a record $670 per week in the June quarter as prices continued to rise across every capital city.
New data from realestate.com.au shows national rents increased 3.1 per cent over the quarter and 6.4 per cent over the past year, while capital city rents rose 2.2 per cent over the quarter to a median of $690 per week, up $10 from the March quarter.
REA Group economist Luc Redman said rental price growth had continued despite a small increase in vacancy rates.
“National median rents reached a new high in the June quarter, with widespread price growth across the capitals,” he said.
“The rent increases occurred despite a small increase in the rental vacancy rate over the same period.”
Melbourne and Perth recorded the strongest quarterly growth among the capitals, with rents increasing 3.5 per cent in each city. On an annual basis, Perth led the nation with rental growth of 10.3 per cent, followed by Hobart at 9.1 per cent and Darwin at 7.7 per cent.
Sydney remained Australia’s most expensive city for renters, with a median advertised rent of $800 per week, while Melbourne and Hobart were the most affordable capital cities at $600 per week.
Regional markets were more subdued, with rents holding steady over the quarter but remaining 5.3 per cent higher than a year ago, suggesting the rapid pace of growth outside the capitals has eased.
Mr Redman said the full impact of the Federal Budget’s changes to investor tax settings was yet to be seen.
“The May Federal Budget, which announced sweeping changes to investor tax settings, occurred in the middle of the quarter, so the full impact on the rental market is yet to be seen,” he said.
“While the vacancy rate has edged higher, the expected decrease in investor demand due to the budget’s tax changes could slow the pace of new supply, putting further pressure on rents.”
The report also found house rents continued to outpace units, rising 2.9 per cent across capital cities over the quarter compared with 1.5 per cent for units. Melbourne was the only capital where renting a unit was more expensive than renting a house, reflecting demand for well-located apartments.
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