Interest rates could fall by the end of the year, major lender predicts

Mortgage payments could ease as soon as the end of 2023, according to predictions by Australia’s largest mortgage holder.

Economists at the Commonwealth Bank expect rates to peak at 3.85 percent (0.25 percent above current levels) in May before easing off towards the end of the year. This comes ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia board, which is widely tipped to keep rates on hold for the first time in 10 months.

While the other three major banks – Westpac, ANZ and NAB – are all suggesting rates will not begin to fall until 2024, the CBA and NAB have made the most accurate predictions over the past six months.

Westpac predicts interest rates will peak at 3.85 percent in May, while NAB and ANZ expect two more possible rate rises in May and June, bringing interest rates to a peak of 4.1 percent.

The RBA has been using rises in the cash rate to drive down inflation, which has fallen from a peak of 8.4 percent in December 2022 to 6.8 percent in February, further strengthening the possibility of a pause.

Property data provider CoreLogic has just released its Home Value Index, revealing national home values increased by 0.6 percent in March, the first month-on-month rise since April 2022. Research director at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, said low stock levels, tight rental conditions and greater demand from overseas migration were the most likely causes.

“Although interest rates are high and there is an expectation the economy will slow through the year, it’s clear other factors are now placing upwards pressure on home prices,” Mr Lawless said.

“Advertised supply has been below average since September last year, with capital city listing numbers ending March almost -20 percent below the previous five-year average. Purchasing activity has also fallen but not as much as available supply; capital city sales activity was estimated to be roughly -7 percent below the previous five-year average through the March quarter.

“With rental markets this tight, it’s likely we are seeing some spillover from renting into purchasing, although, with mortgage rates so high, not everyone who wants to buy will be able to qualify for a loan. Similarly, with net overseas migration at record levels and rising, there is a chance more permanent or long-term migrants who can afford to, will skip the rental phase and fast track a home purchase simply because they can’t find rental accommodation.”

A perfectly-positioned harbourside residence, formerly the home of a late Melbourne Cup-winning horse owner, has come to market with $14 million price expectations for its February 22 auction.

Sitting in one of Sydney’s most coveted enclaves on Waiwera St in Lavender Bay, the duplex with never-to-be-built-out gunbarrell views of both the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Opera House was home to championship thoroughbred owner Michael Fergus Doyle. The Irish-born entrepreneur was part owner of Protectionist, the 2014 Melbourne Cup winner.

Bought by Doyle in April 2020, in an off-market deal totalling $11 million according to CoreLogic data, the two-storey Lavender Bay property is being sold by the racing legend’s family through Atlas Sydney & East Coast. Doyle, a prominent character in Sydney’s Irish community for more than 50 years after arriving down under in the 1960s with a 10 pound boat ticket, sadly passed away in November 2023 at the age of 77.

Doyle built his fortune by building a construction company from the ground up that eventually employed more than 300 people and had a contract with Sydney Water worth A$100 million a year. By 2009, Doyle sold the business to a company owned by the Singapore Government and breeding horses through Doyles Breeding & Racing became his next passion.

The contemporary four-bedroom three-bathroom property features 304sq m of internal living space with additional outdoor entertaining areas on both levels.

Beyond the impressive grand entrance foyer with a personalised floor medallion, the layout opens up to reveal a large everyday living level with a formal lounge room and casual sitting space featuring walls of windows to frame the Harbour City’s top icons. Thanks to a central skylight tower, this main living zone is also flooded with natural light.

A spacious chef-grade kitchen anchored by a long island bench is equipped with Gaggenau appliances, gas burners, dual ovens, and a grill plate. The adjoining dining area spills out onto a terrace with an integrated bar table plus a Luna Park and bridge backdrop. The entry level also houses a home office or guest bedroom with a Juliette balcony and integrated desks opposite a full bathroom.

In the main bedroom suite upstairs there is a deep full-width balcony with more landmark views, a vast walk-in wardrobe, plus a spa ensuite complete with twin vanities, heated floors and warming towel racks. Two more bedrooms on the upper level each have access via French doors to a shared street-facing terrace and built-ins with a common family-friendly bathroom.

Added extras include automatic awnings and privacy screens to the outdoor areas, marble floor tiles, and a double lock up garage with storage.

The designer duplex is located close to harbourside dining venues, foreshore parks such as Bob Gordon Reserve and Wendy Whiteley’s Secret Gardens, Kirribilli Markets and North Sydney’s bustling CBD.

Property 2 at 9-11 Waiwera St is on the market with Adrian Bridges and Daniel Chester of Atlas Sydney & East Coast with a price guide of $14 million. It is set to go under the hammer on February 22.

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His stallion once won the Melbourne Cup, now this late legendary horse owner’s thoroughbred harbourside home is on the market.