Investing During Extreme Uncertainty
How understanding risk influences investing.
3 min
OPINION
As we return to work after a Federal Election and welcome a new government, there still seems to be no end in sight regarding the war in Ukraine, a worldwide energy crisis, food shortages, supply chain issue, COVID-19 and rising costs of living alongside the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
It seems that our economic future has never been more uncertain. Or are things really all that bad for investors?
Amidst the macroeconomic upheaval in the global economy, the question remains, “How does one remain calm, continue to be invested strongly, and actually take advantage of these changes in the global economic cycle?”
How Heightened Risk Can Increase Market Awareness
An analogy can be drawn from a social experiment conducted some years ago in Drachten, Holland, by a traffic engineer named Hans Monderman. He removed all traffic signs, speed control, and traffic lights in this city. Naturally, you would expect complete chaos to have ensued. Almost completely counter-intuitively, both fatality rates and car accidents reduced, while traffic flows improved.
It all comes down to personal risk assessment; when drivers have a constant level of heightened risk awareness, they become better judges of risk more careful and prudent in an environment with fewer road signs and other traffic measures.
The same concept applies to investing. When investors are constantly thinking about risk, being self-reliant and filtering through market noise cautiously, investor behaviour changes for the better.
It also demonstrates an essential truth about life and investing – risk is a constant — what changes is both our attitude and reaction to risk.
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Investors are often lulled into a false sense of security based on what other people are forecasting and thinking, they are caught up in speculative investment trends, often with undesirable outcomes.
The most pressing economic issue impacting all investors is the nexus between inflation and interest rates. How far will the RBA go in raising interest rates to curb inflation? This is now the centrepiece of all forecasts and market predictions. If rates are raised too quickly and aggressively, it increases the risk of an exceptionally prolonged recession. If our central bank is too lax, the inflation we are experiencing may morph into something more disturbing, such as stagflation, deflation, or even hyperinflation.
Thus, the question becomes: how reliant are we on forecasts when making investment decisions?
Below are the Big Four bank economists giving their best attempt at a forecast. Interestingly the CBA and financial market forecasts would differ significantly regarding overall asset prices, from notions of a modest correction to a full-fledged market collapse.
Taking the conservative estimate, if the CBA predictions are accurate, mortgage holders’ monthly repayments will increase by 14.6%, which is aligned with the last time we experienced a rise in the interest rate between 2002 and 2008.
However, if they take the forecasts priced in by the financial market, mortgage payers would be making 39.7% higher monthly repayments.
Risk Tolerance
Msquared’s view is aligned with the CBA forecast; that is, we would anticipate property prices falling 15%. However, our risk tolerance towards new opportunities is more conservative as we continue to prioritise asset preservation and have adjusted our risk profile to reflect an extreme decline in property prices.
As Voltaire said, “uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is absurd”.
Embracing the volatile world we live in enables an investor to prepare and navigate uncertainty effectively.
The one thing that is certain is Mark Twain’s dire warning that “History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Market cycles have been around since the advent of money, largely a result of people’s emotions/sentiments. In other words, the market is not driven solely by economic fundamentals.
What is certain and predictable is that market busts will inevitably be followed by market booms, and vice versa. These cycles will continue so long as people make decisions regarding money – that is – forever.
Paul Miron has more than 20 years experience in banking and commercial finance. After rising to senior positions for various Big Four banks, he started his own financial services business in 2004.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
Whimsy Farm is a playful period estate positioned in Byron Bay’s picturesque hinterland.
3 min
Tucked away in Byron Bay’s coveted hinterland, Whimsy Farm is a traditional rural homestead surrounded by more than 16ha of lush fertile grounds with equestrian facilities and a host of whimsical additions including a fairytale-inspired maze.
Just listed with Sotheby’s International Realty Byron Bay, agents Denzil Lloyd and Will Phillips are running an expressions of interest campaign on the glamorous getaway with a price guide of $5.25 million to $5.75 million.
The romantic estate in Federal, 25 kms from Byron Bay dates back more than a century, but has been meticulously renovated by its current owners to attain modern day dream home status.
Back in 2016, the enviable property even featured on Foxtel’s short-lived reality TV show I Own Australia’s Best Home. The picturesque parcel has also been appreciated by location scouts and has appeared in a long list of fashion brand and magazine shoots such as Country Style and Queensland Homes.
Owner Melinda Boundy, founder of boutique interiors firm Melinda Boundy Design, was instrumental in reviving the historic Federal homestead. She has described the rural property as a “a respite from the world” where she and her husband have raised their two sons over the past decade.
“I brought my boys down 10 years ago to nurture their creativity, their boyhood,” Boundy said in a recent Instagram post announcing the impending sale.
“We found our farm with its double-storey treehouse and 40 acres the perfect place for two young boys to thrive.”
In addition to hiring out the estate for formal events, Boundy said the family had celebrated several milestones at the address.
“Many parties, sleepovers, friends staying and events have been held [here]. It has seen the filming of a TV show or two, music videos, location shoots and weddings,” she added.
“Now it’s time to pass the baton to another family to share the magic and wonderment of this beautiful compound.”
Lloyd agreed that the listing is a magical estate, ripe for the picking.
“It’s a wonderland. There’s the maze, but it’s also got the treehouse, teepee, dams, beautiful established veggie gardens and it’s perfect for those who love horse riding,” Mr Lloyd said.
“It really is an oasis with plenty of classical charm as well. It’s not an ostentatious home; it’s an original Queenslander from 1910.”
Living up to its storybook name, Whimsy Farm is home to a preserved traditional Queenslander residence with five bedrooms, plus a freestanding guest cottage. There is also a separate pool house and a combined shed or office on site, all capturing scenic hinterland views.
The main single-storey residence has a choice of entertaining spaces inside and out as well as bedrooms opening to private alfresco areas. A grand kitchen and the large living room both open to a vast terrace and pool area.
In the primary bedrooms suite there is a bay window overlooking the natural surrounds, an ensuite with double vanities, and out on the covered deck an outdoor bathtub is an idyllic spot for soaking under the stars.
The playful property has also operated as a holiday rental and offers up unique bonus features including a solar-heated semi circle pool, a double-storey treehouse, a teepee, horse stables, paddocks and a an Olympic-sized dressage arena.
A true tree change destination, the Federal address is home to 10 acres of regenerated forest, eight water tanks, two lagoons, extensive raised veggie gardens and a citrus orchard.
It is conveniently located a scenic 30-minute drive to Byron Bay and 20 minutes to Bangalow.
Whimsy Farm at 711 Federal Dr, Federal is listed through Sotheby’s International Realty Byron Bay through an expressions of interest campaign closing February 20, 5pm.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
