National Housing Affordability Declines
However, New South Wales and South Australia saw improvements in affordability in the quarter.
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Both housing and rental affordability has declined, the Real Estate Institute of Australia’s Housing Affordability Report has found.
Although housing affordability improved in New South Wales and South Australia and remained steady in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, it declined in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
REIA President Adrian Kelly stated that housing affordability across Australia has declined, with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments increasing to 34.7%, a rise of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter.
However, when compared to the same quarter of 2020 – housing affordability improved by 0.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, rental affordability declined with the proportion of income required to meet median rents increasing to 24.4%, an increase of 0.4% over the March quarter and an increase of 0.7% over the past 12 months.
Mr Kelly added that the number of first home buyers had decreased by 4.4% over the quarter, but a rise of 62.6% over the last 12 months. Now, first home buyers make up 40.% of owner-occupier dwelling commitments.
“Over the March quarter, the average loan size grew to $506,340, an increase of 1.0% over the quarter and a rise of 2.6% over the past 12 months. During the quarter, the average loan size increased in all states and territories except New South Wales and South Australia. Over the past 12 months, the average loan size rose in all states and territories, ranging from 2.3% in Victoria to 10.8% in Tasmania,” Mr Kelly said.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
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Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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