Preeminent Expert Reveals 2024 Housing Market Predictions

The Australian housing market will deliver a mixed performance in 2024, with Sydney and Melbourne home values likely to fall and Brisbane and Perth prices likely to rise. That’s according to Louis Christopher, the Head of Research at SQM Research and one of Australia’s preeminent experts on property prices, who has just released his annual Housing Boom and Bust Report 2024.

Mr Christopher has outlined his base case for property prices next year based on a cash rate of between 4.1% and 5% (the Reserve Bank raised the rate to 4.35% this month), slower but still elevated annual population growth of 460,000 people or less, and the unemployment rate rising to between 4.5% and 5.5%. He also outlines what may happen in other scenarios, including a global energy crisis brought about by current events in the Middle East, and higher population growth above 500,000 people per year.

At a national level, Mr Christopher’s base case forecasts a -1% to 3% price movement across the weighted combined capital cities. He explains: “… with expected slowing employment growth and the corresponding rise in unemployment, tipped to be towards 5% by the year end 2024, this negative will more than offset another year of strong migration. The interest rate rises of 2022, 2023 and possibly 2024 will finally start to bite homeowners and would-be homebuyers alike. Distressed selling activity is expected to jump, especially in NSW where we are already starting to see a new trend upwards in that data set.”

Looking at the cities individually, Mr Christopher forecasts a fall or very weak price growth in Sydney and Melbourne next year in his base case scenario. He tips a -4% to 0% price movement for Sydney and a -3% to +1% change in Melbourne. This would follow surprisingly strong price growth in Sydney this year despite interest rates still rising throughout 2023. Sydney dwelling values have lifted by an extraordinary 10.9% in the year to 31 October, while Melbourne home values have lifted 4%, according to the latest CoreLogic data.

Mr Christopher said continuing strong population growth (albeit lower than in 2023) and housing supply constraints will limit price falls in Australia’s two biggest cities. Historically, Sydney and Melbourne attract the lion’s share of migrants, so the significant current surge in international arrivals is likely to offset the affordability challenges created by a slower economy and 13 interest rate rises since May 2022, which have curtailed borrowing power and loan serviceability.

Christopher says home values will fall the most in Canberra, down between -8% to -4%, and Hobart, down between -7% to -3%. The combination of a fall in Federal Government spending plus an expected strong increase in dwelling completions will create a softer market in Canberra. The city is one of very few in Australia recording a lift in housing supply as the city embraces apartment living for the first time in its history. Known as the Garden City, Canberra is dominated by houses on family-sized blocks, but in recent years the ACT Government has gradually allowed for higher density stock, including dual occupancies on larger blocks and apartment buildings in major residential centres such as Belconnen and Woden.

On the other side of the coin, Mr Christopher predicts 5% to 9% price growth in Perth and 4% to 8% growth in Brisbane. He says these two cities are likely to benefit from tailwinds created by a recovering Chinese economy and an anticipated lift in demand for iron ore and other commodities. “Perth and Brisbane are still very likely to record price rises based on super tight rental conditions, a better-than-expected global commodities market and minimal exposure to the financial services sector, where we believe there maybe be significant job losses,” Mr Christopher said.

The bulk of Australia’s mines are located in Western Australia and Queensland, and fly-in, fly-out workers commonly base themselves and their families in the capital cities. The iron ore price closed at US$137.50 per tonne in overnight trading – its highest level since May 2022 – and is up almost 20% over the past month, according to Trading Economics data.

This is largely due to the Chinese Government announcing new stimulus targeting infrastructure and manufacturing to counter deflationary pressures in the economy. China imports 70% of the world’s annual iron ore supply, making it the biggest consumer globally, according to Federal Government data. Top broker Citi is forecasting the iron ore price to average US$140 per tonne over the next three months due to the anticipated higher Chinese demand.

Mr Christopher said property prices in Adelaide and Darwin are anticipated to remain steady or record a minor price rise or correction. The base case forecast is a 0% to 3% price movement in Adelaide and a -3% to +1% change in Darwin next year.

For Jack Freeman, a compelling interior should not look as though it was completed in a single shopping trip.

The founder and designer behind FREEMAN & CO prefers rooms that develop through art, travel, commissioned furniture and objects collected over time. It is an approach that treats the home less as a decorative project and more as an evolving portrait of its owner.

“I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating,” Freeman says.

That distinction underpins the international practice he has built across private residences, hotels, property developments, yachts and private aviation. Its projects stretch from Point Piper, Vaucluse, Circular Quay and Toorak to Mayfair, Bel Air and the Caribbean.

Although the locations and architecture vary considerably, the work is connected by a restrained design language. Natural stone, warm timbers and sculptural furniture establish the foundation, while art, bespoke lighting and individual objects give each interior its identity.

The objective is not to overwhelm a room with obvious symbols of expense. It is to create an environment that feels calm, layered and particular to the people living within it.

“The greatest luxury isn’t about excess,” Freeman says. “It’s about creating an oasis where you come home and feel immediately grounded — effortlessly chic and deeply personal.”

Collecting instead of decorating

Decorating can imply the completion of a room: selecting the required furniture, filling the available walls and producing a coherent finished image.

Collecting is less conclusive.

A collected interior has room to change as its owners travel, discover artists, inherit pieces or reassess how they use their home. Its character comes from the relationship between objects rather than adherence to a single brand or season.

That does not mean placing unrelated pieces together without discipline. The designer must understand scale, proportion, material and provenance well enough to create a dialogue between them.

A contemporary artwork might sit beside a historic piece of furniture. A precisely detailed new interior may be interrupted by an irregular object made by hand. Smooth stone can be balanced by timber, textiles or a patinated metal surface that becomes richer with age.

The tension between those elements is part of the appeal.

For Freeman, art is not an accessory to be added once the furniture plan is complete. It forms part of the architecture and atmosphere of the room from the beginning.

Lighting is considered in the same way. Beyond its practical purpose, a bespoke fitting can operate as a suspended sculpture, changing both the room’s composition and the way its materials are experienced after dark.

A design perspective shaped by travel

International travel plays a significant role in Freeman’s creative process.

Design fairs such as PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile in Milan provide opportunities to encounter emerging designers, established galleries, new materials and collectible furniture away from the filter of social media.

More spontaneous discoveries can prove equally important.

“Sometimes it’s the simple things,” Freeman says. “That piece found on a shopping trip with a client in Paris, stumbling across an artisan’s workshop, or a special memory that forms the narrative of the story.”

Objects selected during travel bring more than visual interest into a home. They carry an association with a place, maker or experience, giving the client a connection that cannot be reproduced by ordering an entire interior from a catalogue.

Freeman’s influences are international, but his projects are not conceived as replicas of Parisian, Milanese or Californian style. Each commission responds to its architecture, setting, natural light and the daily lives of its occupants.

A waterfront Sydney residence demands a different treatment from a Mayfair townhouse. A Caribbean estate shaped by brutalist architecture and reflecting pools calls for another response again.

The designer’s role is to absorb those references without allowing them to overwhelm the individual qualities of the property.

Designing the complete experience

FREEMAN & CO extends beyond conventional interior decoration.

The practice’s stated services include interior design and architecture, project management, property acquisition, development advice, concept design, documentation, furniture and lighting design, procurement and art curation.

That breadth allows the team to become involved before a room’s dimensions and finishes are fixed.

Early participation can be important at the top end of the residential market, where architecture, landscape, interiors, technology and art must operate as one environment. Decisions about ceiling heights, wall dimensions, sightlines and lighting can directly affect where art is installed or how custom furniture is proportioned.

The practice can then carry those decisions through to procurement and final installation, maintaining the design narrative as a project moves between architects, builders, specialist craftspeople, dealers and suppliers.

Its residential portfolio includes a South Coast retreat conceived as an escape from urban life, a Caribbean estate with reflecting pools, an East Coast-inspired Palm Beach residence and a Mayfair townhouse organised around an expressive drawing room.

The studio also says it has worked on highly tailored Sydney residences with values exceeding $100 million, although the private nature of such commissions means individual addresses and clients are not always disclosed.

A home that can keep changing

The risk in creating a perfectly resolved interior is that it can become too static — a composition that looks exceptional in photographs but leaves little room for life.

Freeman sees the home as something that should evolve with its owners.

“I love the evolution of design,” he says. “We are talking about people’s lives, and as they evolve, so too should their private sanctuaries.”

That evolution might involve adding art, reupholstering a significant piece, adapting rooms as a family changes or making space for objects gathered through future travels.

The original design needs to be strong enough to accommodate those layers.

This may be the clearest expression of Freeman’s approach to luxury. It is not simply access to rare stone, collectible furniture or commissioned craftsmanship. It is the creation of a personal environment whose meaning deepens rather than diminishes with time.

Fact box

Designer: Jack Freeman

Role: Founder and managing director

Practice: FREEMAN & CO

Base: Australia, with international projects

Project locations named by the practice: Point Piper, Vaucluse, Circular Quay, Toorak, Palm Beach, the NSW South Coast, Mayfair, Bel Air and the Caribbean

Sectors: Private residences, hotels, residential developments, private aviation and superyachts

Services: Interior design and architecture, property development, project management, property acquisition, documentation, furniture and lighting design, FF&E procurement, interior dressing and art curation

Design philosophy: Collected, personal interiors shaped by art, craftsmanship, travel and enduring materials

Website: free-man.co

Preeminent Expert Reveals 2024 Housing Market Predictions

Sydney and Melbourne likely to fall, Perth and Brisbane set to rise amid improved iron ore demand from China

Jack Freeman believes the most compelling interiors are not decorated, but collected. The FREEMAN & CO founder creates layered, personal spaces shaped by art, travel and craftsmanship.