Sydney Housing Boom May Be Over
Sydney house values fell in February for the first time since October 2020.
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Sydney house values fell 0.1% in February, marking the first monthly decline since September 2020 according to the latest data from CoreLogic.
Melbourne’s values also stagnated over the month following on from similarly dour results in December and January with mortgage rate hikes, rising listings and poor affordability takings its toll on the market.
According to Time Lawless, CoreLogic’s director of research, the February home value index showed capital city and broad regions recorded a slowing trend in price growth.
“Sydney’s price drop is a pretty stark reminder that the boom in Sydney is over, and potentially we are looking at a marketplace now that is levelling out, potentially even moving into its downward phase earlier than what we expected,” he said.
“This could be the start of price falls,” Mr Lawless added.
Across the nation, housing values rose by 0.6% — the lowest monthly growth rate since October 2020 and is down from 1.1% in January and a cyclical peak of 2.8% in March 2021.
While smaller capitals continued to power ahead with Brisbane and Adelaide marking 1.8% growth and 1.5% respectively their growth rates have also been tempered.
In February, Brisbane recorded a 2.3% lift while Adelaide added 2.2%. Elsewhere, Canberra slowed to 0.45 and Hobart by 1.2%, Perth by 0.3% and Darwin by 0.4%.
According to Mr Lawless, the smaller markets have been resilient to the slowing conditions but now we’re seeing it affect the market.
“I’m quite certain that Brisbane and Adelaide will continue to be the standout performers across the capitals, but they’re not immune to a slowdown on the back of higher mortgage rates and worsening sentiment.”
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
Philip Lowe’s comments come amid property industry concerns about pressures on mortgage holders and rising rents
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Leaders in Australia’s property industry are calling on the RBA to hit the pause button on further interest rate rises following yesterday’s announcement to raise the cash rate to 4.1 percent.
CEO of the REINSW, Tim McKibbin, said it was time to let the 12 interest rate rises since May last year take effect.
“The REINSW would like to see the RBA hit pause and allow the 12 rate rises to date work their way through the economy. Property prices have rebounded because of supply and demand. I think that will continue with the rate rise,” said Mr McKibbin.
The Real Estate Institute of Australia today released its Housing Affordability Report for the March 2023 quarter which showed that in NSW, the proportion of family income required to meet the average loan repayments has risen to 55 percent, up from 44.5 percent a year ago.
Chief economist at Ray White, Nerida Conisbee, said while this latest increase would probably not push Australia into a recession, it had major implications for the housing market and the needs of ordinary Australians.
“As more countries head into recession, at this point, it does look like the RBA’s “narrow path” will get us through while taming inflation,” she said.
“In the meantime however, it is creating a headache for renters, buyers and new housing supply that is going to take many years to resolve.
“And every interest rate rise is extending that pain.”
In a speech to guests at Morgan Stanley’s Australia Summit released today, Governor Philip Lowe addressed the RBA board’s ‘narrow path’ approach, navigating continued economic growth while pushing inflation from its current level of 6.8 percent down to a more acceptable level of 2 to 3 percent.
“It is still possible to navigate this path and our ambition is to do so,” Mr Lowe said. “But it is a narrow path and likely to be a bumpy one, with risks on both sides.”
However, he said the alternative is persistent high inflation, which would do the national economy more damage in the longer term.
“If inflation stays high for too long, it will become ingrained in people’s expectations and high inflation will then be self-perpetuating,” he said. “As the historical experiences shows, the inevitable result of this would be even higher interest rates and, at some point, a larger increase in unemployment to get rid of the ingrained inflation.
“The Board’s priority is to do what it can to avoid this.”
While acknowledging that another rate rise would adversely affect many households, Mr Lowe said it was unavoidable if inflation was to be tamed.
“It is certainly true that if the Board had not lifted interest rates as it has done, some households would have avoided, for a short period, the financial pressures that come with higher mortgage rates,” he said.
“But this short-term gain would have been at a much higher medium-term cost. If we had not tightened monetary policy, the cost of living would be higher for longer. This would hurt all Australians and the functioning of our economy and would ultimately require even higher interest rates to bring inflation back down.
“So, as difficult as it is, the rise in interest rates is necessary to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable timeframe.”
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
