The Building Boom Is Prolonging Market Pain
Construction employment is higher than ever—undermining bets the Fed will soon pivot
4 min
US: The building boom has helped push unemployment to around its lowest level in more than 50 years. That is perplexing investors who want to see the Federal Reserve switch course on interest rates.
Construction spending and employment have risen to new records this year, boosted by government outlays for infrastructure, a domestic manufacturing renaissance and a wave of apartment building that got off to a slow start during the pandemic when prices for building materials, such as lumber, were sky high.
Construction companies with jobs ranging from airport overhauls to bathroom renovations say they have enough work booked to maintain payrolls—for years in some cases. Even home builders, who slowed down last year when rates began to rise, are ramping up into spring.
The persistent strength in a sector that is usually among the first to suffer job loss when borrowing costs rise is undermining investor hopes that the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate increases would quickly slow inflation and rejuvenate the stock market.
It also threatens to upend bets in the market that recession and lower rates are on the horizon. Investors are trading government bonds as if rate cuts will come within the next year and buying technology stocks, bitcoin and other speculative assets that surged when borrowing costs were near zero.
The issue for investors is that the longer it takes for construction activity and employment to decline, the longer it will be before the central bank can cut rates.
“Through this whole cycle, many have expected a much faster slowdown than has occurred,” said Bob Elliott, co-founder and chief executive of asset manager Unlimited. “Macroeconomic cycles take years to play out.”
There are signs of slowdown, to be sure. Apartment construction is expected to decline once the latest batch of buildings is finished. Problems at regional banks are drying up financing for some projects. Spending on home improvement and repairs is forecast to decline over the next year, the first contraction since the depths of the foreclosure crisis in 2010, according to a closely watched barometer of the remodelling industry.
“Maybe we’re starting to see the effects of higher cost of capital on interest-rate-sensitive sectors,” said Anirban Basu, chief economist at trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, which said its measure of construction backlog declined in March to the lowest level since August. “The Federal Reserve raises rates until something breaks and something is starting to break.”
Even when construction employment declines, the effects might not be felt immediately in the broader economy. During the relatively fast-crashing 2008 financial crisis, the number of people working in residential construction peaked in April 2006 and had fallen roughly 15% before overall employment began to drop about two years later, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
The 2008 crash kicked off a deep recession and a years long home-building slump that left the U.S. severely short of housing.
Meanwhile, millions of homeowners are locked into historically low mortgage rates, which is keeping existing homes off the market and stoking demand for new construction, builders and analysts say. New-home sales climbed 9.6% in March, the Census Bureau said.
PulteGroup Inc., the country’s third-largest home builder, Tuesday reported record first-quarter revenue after selling 6% more houses at a 9% higher average price than a year earlier. Executives said they are adding sales and construction staff and building more spec homes, especially those aimed at first-time buyers.
“They don’t have a home to sell. And so they are not hampered by the low interest rate,” said Chief Executive Ryan Marshall. Pulte’s shares are up 47% this year and among the leaders of the S&P 500 stock index, which has gained 8.6%.
Employment in residential construction has been buoyed by the biggest burst in apartment building since the mid-1980s. Apartment projects were delayed after the Covid lockdown because of the budget-straining expense of building materials, such as lumber, which shot to more than twice the pre pandemic high and added millions of dollars to construction costs.
“People couldn’t build their projects, so they kicked the can down the road,” said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust Inc., which lends to landlords.
Though prices for lumber and other materials have come down, developers now face construction financing that is about twice as expensive as it had been and landlords are unlikely to be able to offset greater borrowing costs with rent increases, which should hinder new projects, said Mr. Kaufman.
So far, the roughly $50 billion decline in residential construction spending over the past year has been more than made up for by gains in commercial projects, including highways, hotels and hospitals. A record $108 billion was spent building factories last year, and the amount has risen this year, to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of about $141 billion in February, according to Census Bureau data.
Some, such as those in fields that the Biden administration has made national priorities, such as semiconductors and electric vehicles, are supported by government incentives. Others are being built by big companies that can fund projects without borrowing.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co. is building a plant in Waco, Texas, to recycle old cardboard into new paperboard and said it would cover the $1 billion cost with cash over three years of construction. A similar facility that Graphic completed last year in Kalamazoo, Mich., required as many as 1,200 workers from 38 states.
The 2021 infrastructure bill and last years’ climate, tax and healthcare law are pumping money into industrial projects—such as renewable-energy facilities and railroad expansions—that promise to keep workers busy for years.
John Fish, CEO of the Suffolk construction firm, said the Boston-based company is focusing more on government-supported construction, such as airport upgrades. Suffolk employs roughly 2,500 and contracts with another 25,000 or so. It has three or four years of work lined up, including the renovation of Terminal C at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, which won’t start until next year and isn’t scheduled for completion until 2026.
Home remodeller Jay Cipriani said his staff of 34 has plenty of kitchens and bathrooms to work through this year. But he said he’s getting fewer calls for new jobs and expects a slowing economy could make some prospective clients think twice about nonessential projects: “Maybe we don’t put in that fish pond this year.”
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Weary of ‘smart’ everything, Americans are craving stylish ‘analog rooms’ free of digital distractions—and designers are making them a growing trend.
5 min
James and Ellen Patterson are hardly Luddites. But the couple, who both work in tech, made an unexpectedly old-timey decision during the renovation of their 1928 Washington, D.C., home last year.
The Pattersons had planned to use a spacious unfinished basement room to store James’s music equipment, but noticed that their children, all under age 21, kept disappearing down there to entertain themselves for hours without the aid of tablets or TVs.
Inspired, the duo brought a new directive to their design team.
The subterranean space would become an “analog room”: a studiously screen-free zone where the family could play board games together, practice instruments, listen to records or just lounge about lazily, undistracted by devices.
For decades, we’ve celebrated the rise of the “smart home”—knobless, switchless, effortless and entirely orchestrated via apps.
But evidence suggests that screen-free “dumb” spaces might be poised for a comeback.
Many smart-home features are losing their luster as they raise concerns about surveillance and, frankly, just don’t function.
New York designer Christine Gachot said she’d never have to work again “if I had a dollar for every time I had a client tell me ‘my smart music system keeps dropping off’ or ‘I can’t log in.’ ”
Google searches for “how to reduce screen time” reached an all-time high in 2025. In the past four years on TikTok, videos tagged #AnalogLife—cataloging users’ embrace of old technology, physical media and low-tech lifestyles—received over 76 million views.
And last month, Architectural Digest reported on nostalgia for old-school tech : “landline in hand, cord twirled around finger.”
Catherine Price, author of “ How to Break Up With Your Phone,” calls the trend heartening.
“People are waking up to the idea that screens are getting in the way of real life interactions and taking steps through design choices to create an alternative, places where people can be fully present,” said Price, whose new book “ The Amazing Generation ,” co-written with Jonathan Haidt, counsels tweens and kids on fun ways to escape screens.
From both a user and design perspective, the Pattersons consider their analog room a success.
Freed from the need to accommodate an oversize television or stuff walls with miles of wiring, their design team—BarnesVanze Architects and designer Colman Riddell—could get more creative, dividing the space into discrete music and game zones.
Ellen’s octogenarian parents, who live nearby, often swing by for a round or two of the Stock Market Game, an eBay-sourced relic from Ellen’s childhood that requires calculations with pen and paper.
In the music area, James’s collection of retro Fender and Gibson guitars adorn walls slicked with Farrow & Ball’s Card Room Green , while the ceiling is papered with a pattern that mimics the organic texture of vintage Fender tweed.
A trio of collectible amps cluster behind a standing mic—forming a de facto stage where family and friends perform on karaoke nights. Built-in cabinets display a Rega turntable and the couple’s vinyl record collection.
“Playing a game with family or doing your own little impromptu karaoke is just so much more joyful than getting on your phone and scrolling for 45 minutes,” said James.
Screen-Free ‘Escapes’
“Dumb” design will likely continue to gather steam, said Hans Lorei, a designer in Nashville, Tenn., as people increasingly treat their homes “less as spaces to optimise and more as spaces to retreat.”
Case in point: The top-floor nook that designer Jeanne Hayes of Camden Grace Interiors carved out in her Connecticut home as an “offline-office” space.
Her desk? A periwinkle beanbag chair paired with an ottoman by Jaxx. “I hunker down here when I need to escape distractions from the outside world,” she explained.
“Sometimes I’m scheming designs for a project while listening to vinyl, other times I’m reading the newspaper in solitude. When I’m in here without screens, I feel more peaceful and more productive at the same time—two things that rarely go hand in hand.”
A subtle archway marks the transition into designer Zoë Feldman’s Washington, D.C., rosy sunroom—a serene space she conceived as a respite from the digital demands of everyday life.
Used for reading and quiet conversation, it “reinforces how restorative it can be to be physically present in a room without constant input,” the designer said.
Laura Lubin, owner of Nashville-based Ellerslie Interiors, transformed a tiny guest bedroom in her family’s cottage into her own “wellness room,” where she retreats for sound baths, massages and reflection.
“Without screens, the room immediately shifts your nervous system. You’re not multitasking or consuming, you’re just present,” said Lubin.
As a designer, she’s fielding requests from clients for similar spaces that support mental health and rest, she said.
“People are overstimulated and overscheduled,” she explained. “Homes are no longer just places to live—they’re expected to actively support well-being.”
Designer Molly Torres Portnof of New York’s DATE Interiors adopted the same brief when she designed a music room for her husband, owner of the labels Greenway Records and Levitation, in their Lido Beach, N.Y. home. He goes there nightly to listen to records or play his guitar.
The game closet from the townhouse in “The Royal Tenenbaums”? That idea is back too, says Gachot. Last year she designed an epic game room backed by a rock climbing wall for a young family in Montana.
When you’re watching a show or on your phone, “it’s a solo experience for the most part,” the designer said. “The family really wanted to encourage everybody to do things together.”
Analog Accessories
Don’t have the space—or the budget—to kit out an entire retro rec room?
“There are a lot of small tweaks you can make even if you don’t have the time, energy or budget to design a fully analog room from scratch,” said Price.
Gachot says “the small things in people’s lives are cues of what the bigger trends are.”
More of her clients, she’s noticed, have been requesting retrograde staples, such as analog clocks and magazine racks.
For her Los Angeles living room, chef Sara Kramer sourced a vintage piano from Craigslist to be the room’s centerpiece, rather than sacrifice its design to the dominant black box of a smart TV. Alabama designer Lauren Conner recently worked with a client who bought a home with a rotary phone.
Rather than rip it out, she decided to keep it up and running, adding a silver receiver cover embellished with her grandmother’s initials.
Some throwback accessories aren’t so subtle. Melia Marden was browsing listings from the Public Sale Auction House in Hudson, N.Y. when she spotted a phone booth from Bell Systems circa the late 1950s and successfully bid on it for a few hundred dollars.
“It was a pandemic impulse buy,” said Marden.
In 2023, she and her husband, Frank Sisti Jr., began working with designer Elliot Meier and contractor ReidBuild to integrate the booth into what had been a hallway linen closet in their Brooklyn townhouse.
Canadian supplier Old Phone Works refurbished the phone and sold them the pulse-to-tone converter that translates the rotary dial to a modern phone line.
The couple had collected a vintage whimsical animal-adorned wallpaper (featured in a different colourway in “Pee-wee’s Playhouse”) and had just enough to cover the phone booth’s interior.
Their children, ages 9 and 11, don’t have their own phones, so use the booth to communicate with family. It’s also become a favorite spot for hiding away with a stack of Archie comic books.
The booth has brought back memories of meandering calls from Marden’s own youth—along with some of that era’s simple joy. As Meier puts it: “It’s got this magical wardrobe kind of feeling.”
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