The U.S. Economy Grew, but It’s Not as Good as It Looks
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The U.S. Economy Grew, but It’s Not as Good as It Looks

By JACK DENTON
Fri, Oct 28, 2022 7:51amGrey Clock 3 min

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly high 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, reversing two consecutive quarters of declines. But beneath the strong headline number were signs that consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation and that the housing market has been hit by this year’s dramatic rise in interest rates.

Nevertheless, quarterly growth of this magnitude should reassure investors that the U.S. has not, at this point, been plunged into recession. Fears of an economic slowdown have been front of mind this year amid a dramatic tightening of financial conditions by the Federal Reserve. The central bank is attempting to get inflation, which is at its hottest in decades, under control by boosting interest rates.

But one quarter of growth doesn’t mean the risk of a slowdown has passed.

“The trajectory for growth looks weak,” said Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating housing market and nagging inflation along with an aggressive Federal Reserve puts the economy on unsure footing for 2023.”

The market reaction was still upbeat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was rising 375 points, or 1.2%, on Thursday.

After all, the result was a significant surprise to the upside. Economists surveyed by FactSet had estimated that the economy grew at a 2% annual rate in the three months to the end of September, following declines of 0.6% and 1.6% in the second and first quarter, respectively. The first half of the year marked a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.

The rise in third-quarter growth reflected net increases in exports, matching expectations that the trade deficit had narrowed as a result of a steep drop in imports, in part due to bloated inventories at some retailers. It was much fewer imports of consumer goods that led to the overall decline.

International trade dynamics may have been what ultimately delivered such strong growth in GDP, but investors would do well to examine some of the more telling components in the data.

Consumer spending increased overall, reflecting money flowing to healthcare and other services. But shoppers stopped digging as deep in their pockets to purchase goods, with data showing a deceleration of spending on cars, parts, and food and beverages. This was the third straight quarter in which goods spending fell, indicating a squeeze on consumers.

Amid signs that inflation remains persistently high—with two more interest-rate decisions due from the Federal Reserve this year—these trends are important.

As are indications that the U.S. is facing a slowdown in the housing market. GDP growth was primarily weighed down by a decrease in residential housing investment, and especially single-family home construction. The Fed’s hawkish shift on interest rates has had a knock-on effect on the mortgage market and created what some economists have called a housing recession.

The data out Thursday may be as good as it gets for a while.

“We expect 3Q22 to mark the peak in quarterly growth, as the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy begins to push growth below potential,” said Ellen Zentner, the chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. The bank expects to see GDP growth in the fourth quarter of just 0.8%.

“There’s a distinct possibility that Q3 could be the last hurrah for this post-pandemic economic expansion, as the U.S. faces material economic headwinds as a result of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

The growth picture is likely to get gloomier as the full impact of the Fed’s monetary policy ripples across the economy—a process that can take many months or a year. The central bank is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points, or three quarters of a percentage point, for the fourth time since June next week. That, and another rate decision in December, will only show up in the data deep in 2023.

By that point, this year’s third quarter likely will look even better.



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How to Pick the Perfect Souvenir When Travelling

It’s easy to buy clunkers when you’re caught up in the moment. But regrettable purchases aren’t inevitable.

By KATHLEEN HUGHES
Sat, Nov 9, 2024 4 min

Trying to buy just the right souvenir on a trip is a risky business. You can wind up with a lifetime treasure—or an albatross you feel stuck with forever.

Consider the giant painting of a chicken flying out of Cuba that has been hanging over our couch in Palos Verdes, Calif., for the past 15 years. Buying it cheaply seemed to make sense when we were in Havana, since my husband’s family had fled the country after the revolution.

But the flying chicken just didn’t seem as, well, poignant by the time we returned home and hung the 4-by-7-foot painting. No guest has ever said a word about it. “I can’t help you with the chicken,” an art dealer told me long ago when I asked for help in selling it.

So, how do you find the right souvenir? Or is there even any such thing?

An everyday reminder

For many people, the answer to the second question is an unqualified “No,” and they have stopped trying. “Souvenirs never look as enticing or beautiful as they did at the time of purchase once you get them home,” warns Patricia Schultz, the author of “1,000 Places to See Before You Die.”

After collecting rugs on her trips, then Christmas ornaments, before running out of room at home for both, Schultz says, “I have gone cold turkey. I collect memories.”

But for others, surrendering just won’t do. “It’s intrinsic when people travel that they wind up bringing a keepsake of the journey,” says Rolf Potts, the author of “Souvenir,” a book that traces the history of travel souvenirs back to the earliest recorded journeys.

“It can be a way to show off,” he says. “Much like the envy-inducing travel posts on Instagram.” But for many people, he says, “It’s proof you were there, not only to show other people but also for yourself.”

For those who lean in this direction, there are ways to help avoid regrets. Tara Button , founder of the Buy Me Once website, and the author of “A Life Less Throwaway: The Lost Art of Buying for Life,” suggests focusing on practical items that fit your lifestyle and double as mementos.

As an example, she once bought a “very affordable” baby blanket made from alpaca fiber on a trip to Peru and now uses it every day. The blanket not only reminds her of “the time pre-children when I was traveling,” she says. “It goes over my 2-year-old son every night. It’s always soft and always gorgeous.”

She has a friend who collects one cup from each destination. “Those are perfect memory keepers,” she says. “A small item that is used every day.”

Finding the right scale

One obstacle to finding the right souvenir is that it can be hard to think practically when you are swept up in the excitement of a new culture. Consider the Burmese puppet, 15 inches tall, that has spent about two decades in the closet of Liz Einbinder , head of public relations for Backroads, an adventure-tour company.

“We saw a lot of puppets everywhere and just got caught up in all of the Burmese art and culture,” she says. Now she wonders, “Why did I bring this back? It sits in the back of my closet and I can’t seem to get rid of it. It creeps me out when I see it.”

When that buying urge sweeps over you, Button and other travel experts suggest pausing to consider your lifestyle, taste, needs, and the scale of your home—you’re going back to the reality of your everyday life, after all.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean being entirely practical. Einbinder collects miniatures, mostly miniature houses, from every country, and has more than a hundred. Most are in storage, but she keeps a little London bus and a little Egyptian pyramid on her desk. For her, souvenirs aren’t just about memories, they’re also about the hunt. “It gives me something to search for” on each trip, she says. “That’s half the fun.”

Ignore the hard sell

Another way travelers often go wrong is by giving in to pressure, or at least persistence, from salespeople.

When Kimba Hills, an interior designer, went to Morocco, she hired a guide who took her to a rug store in Fez, where the dealers delivered a whirlwind sales pitch while serving tea. She wound up buying a $4,000 flat-weave Turkish rug, measuring about 13 feet by 9 feet.

“No one in my group could believe I got seduced,” she says.

When the rug finally arrived at her home in Santa Monica, “It smelled like cow dung,” she says. Washing the rug was going to change the color.

When she called the dealer in Fez and demanded her money back, he refused, offering to send her a different rug instead. “We got into a yelling match,” says Hills. “All my skills went out the window.”

Looking back, she says, “You are in a buying mode because you are there and feel like you should buy something.” On a recent trip to Mexico, she bought nothing, explaining, “I’m wiser.”

Sometimes, magic

Spontaneity can cut both ways. There’s the chicken painting. But waiting for inspiration to strike, rather than planning to go home with a souvenir, can still help.

Henry Zankov, a sweater designer, says that when he travels, he explores his destinations with the idea that he won’t buy anything unless he comes across something he loves. He still buys plenty, but says “I don’t have regrets.” At his home in Brooklyn, he has ceramics, vases and glassware from shops he found randomly in Spain, Greece, and Italy. “I buy what I have to have,” he says.

There are times he doesn’t find anything. “So I just give up,” he says. “It’s OK.”

Some souvenirs do become the treasure of a lifetime.

Annie Lucas , the co-owner of MIR, which offers tours to less-traveled destinations, became captivated by a mirror on a trip to Morocco. It was made with hand-pounded silver and pieces of camel bones.

She went back to the store three or four times, debating the cost and whether she would regret it once she got home. It was heavy and measured 24 inches by 40 inches.

“That was 15 years ago, and I still treasure it,” she says. “If I had to get out of my house and had only five minutes to pack, I would grab that off the wall.”

MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

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