Under pressure: where interest rate rises are starting to bite
It’s a tale of two residential rings as some parts of the country’s capitals bear the brunt
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There’s no end in sight for mortgage holder pain, with some parts of the country set for a worse time than others, new analysis suggests.
While economists from the major banks are predicting rates to rise at least another 25 basis points from the current level of 4.1 percent to 4.35 percent, data from CoreLogic reveals it’s the outer suburbs of the country’s capitals most likely to feel the pressure.
Head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen, said repayments on a $750,000 loan have risen by about $1,550 per month since rate hikes began in May 2022, forcing many households to dig deep.
“Households in some regions will feel the pinch more than others,” Ms Owen said.
“The number of mortgaged, owner occupier households are generally highest in outer regions of major cities, particularly Melbourne.
“Looking at SA3 regional boundaries at the time of the 2021 Census, the highest number of mortgaged owner occupiers were in Wyndham (43,807, or around 48 percent of households), Casey –South (38,614, or 56.2 percent of households), and Wanneroo in Perth (38,320, or 54 percent of households).”
Adding further pressure on the ability of mortgage holders in those areas to service their loans, 16 of the 25 regions identified had a weekly median income lower than that of their greater capital city.
Ms Owen noted that Blacktown – North has seen a steady rise in the number of listings in the past four weeks, while the amount of time on the market has been increasing since February. This points to more available properties on the market and greater uncertainty amongst would-be buyers.
Other parts of the market, such as mining towns and inner city areas where there are fewer owner occupier mortgages, may also be under stress, Ms Owen said. Capital gains in some areas have also clouded the impact of higher interest rates on investment mortgage holders.
“It is noticeable that new listings volumes are climbing in some of these markets, where the national trend is seeing a seasonal slowdown,” she said. “This could make it more difficult for recent buyers to make a capital gain if they are struggling to meet mortgage repayments.”
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A legacy “partner” lease structure tied to sales, not fixed rent, is drawing investor attention as a potential hedge against inflation.
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A McDonald’s restaurant in Yass has been brought to market with one of the last remaining pure turnover leases in Australia, offering investors a direct share of revenue rather than a traditional fixed rental return.
The asset, located at 1713 Yass Valley Way, is being marketed by JLL via an expressions of interest campaign closing on 30 April. It is underpinned by a legacy lease structure no longer offered by McDonald’s in Australia.
Under the arrangement, the landlord receives 6.5 cents for every dollar spent at the restaurant, creating uncapped income growth linked directly to sales performance.
The lease is structured as triple net, meaning no operational risk, capital expenditure obligations or management responsibilities for the owner.
According to JLL, the property has recorded compounded annual sales growth of 4.26 per cent since 2003, with rental income rising by 150 per cent over the same period.
JLL’s David Mahood said the structure allows investors to “participate directly in the sales growth” of the business, rather than relying on fixed annual rent reviews.
The newly commenced lease runs to 2036, with four additional 10-year options extending to 2076, providing a weighted average lease expiry of 9.92 years by income.
The asset sits on a 3,571 square metre freehold site in Yass, with significant frontage to the Hume Highway, one of Australia’s busiest freight corridors.
The location benefits from high volumes of passing traffic, including an estimated 75,000 vehicles per day.
The quick service restaurant sector has remained resilient through economic cycles, including the pandemic and recent cost-of-living pressures, with McDonald’s continuing to expand its footprint and invest in store upgrades across Australia.
JLL pointed to strong investor demand for McDonald’s-backed assets, with recent transactions typically yielding between the high 2 per cent to mid 3 per cent range.
The Yass listing is expected to attract interest due to the scarcity of turnover-based leases, which provide a natural hedge against inflation by linking income growth to consumer spending rather than predetermined increases.
McDonald’s Yass is available for sale via an Expressions of Interest campaign closing at 3:00pm (AEST) on Thursday, April 30.
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