Workers, Get Ready for the Great Rebalancing

American workers’ wild ride is coming to an end.

After three whiplash-inducing years of, first, professional vulnerability and, then, perceived invincibility, many people are returning to more typical levels of career security and leverage.

Call it the Great Rebalancing of the employer-employee relationship.

“We’re clearly headed there,” says Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute.

Not long ago, at the pandemic’s onset, things were so bad that people lost jobs in record numbers as the U.S. unemployment rate reached 14.7%. Then things got so good that workers resigned in record numbers. There was a catchy name for this trend, I believe.

Adding to the volatility, savings swelled and shrivelled with the stock market, causing some people to lurch between hope for an early retirement and fear of working forever. Raises that made some feel flush were offset by inflation, in many cases.

The “quiet quitters” who reduced their on-the-job efforts while feeling untouchable last year may now be angling to fill key roles when their companies freeze or cut head counts.

Ms. Shierholz says that workers are still in good shape, overall, but certain key metrics are trending down toward normal ranges. December’s hourly earnings increase of 4.6% from a year earlier was the smallest rise since mid-2021, and the 223,000 additional jobs were the fewest per month in two years.

To complain about such decreases would be akin to griping if Yankees slugger Aaron Judge were to hit only 50 home runs this year, after smacking an American League-record 62 last season. It’s unrealistic to expect new peaks all the time, and it’s worth remembering what 2020 was like. (Mr. Judge, beset by injuries, hit 9 homers that year, by the way.)

Francesco Carucci, a California software developer, says he knew that his pay package was “wildly inflated” when he joined Meta Platforms Inc. last January. He says Facebook’s parent company tripled the total compensation that he earned at his previous employer, amid a hiring spree in a historically tight labor market.

Then Meta laid off Mr. Carucci late last year in a round of 11,000 job cuts. Being aware of his bloated comp didn’t dull the sting of losing it, he says, and he got an additional reality check this month when he accepted an offer that is worth half of the one he received a year ago.

Still, he says his new pay is reasonable—more than what he made a few years ago—and the interview and negotiation process was more in line with what he has usually experienced over a 25-year career. He adds that he’s trying not to take the layoff personally. He views it instead as part of a natural and inevitable correction to the job market.

Others would do well to practice the same attitude. Andy Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which helps companies manage layoffs and provides career coaching to the dismissed, tells me that business is picking back up after two of the slowest years in the firm’s history. He offers a blunt translation of what that means: “We know that there are a lot more layoffs coming.”

Ominous as that sounds, Mr. Challenger says the prospects of finding new work are generally good. Job openings, while shrinking, still outnumber the unemployed by several million, according to federal data. He expects that gap to narrow as the year goes on and advises job seekers to redouble their urgency.

“It’s not a time to lay back and feel too comfortable about the tight labor market,” he says. “Even if you’re getting lots of messages from recruiters today, that can dry up pretty quickly as things turn.”

As Paris makes its final preparations for the Olympic games, its residents are busy with their own—packing their suitcases, confirming their reservations, and getting out of town.

Worried about the hordes of crowds and overall chaos the Olympics could bring, Parisians are fleeing the city in droves and inundating resort cities around the country. Hotels and holiday rentals in some of France’s most popular vacation destinations—from the French Riviera in the south to the beaches of Normandy in the north—say they are expecting massive crowds this year in advance of the Olympics. The games will run from July 26-Aug. 1.

“It’s already a major holiday season for us, and beyond that, we have the Olympics,” says Stéphane Personeni, general manager of the Lily of the Valley hotel in Saint Tropez. “People began booking early this year.”

Personeni’s hotel typically has no issues filling its rooms each summer—by May of each year, the luxury hotel typically finds itself completely booked out for the months of July and August. But this year, the 53-room hotel began filling up for summer reservations in February.

“We told our regular guests that everything—hotels, apartments, villas—are going to be hard to find this summer,” Personeni says. His neighbours around Saint Tropez say they’re similarly booked up.

As of March, the online marketplace Gens de Confiance (“Trusted People”), saw a 50% increase in reservations from Parisians seeking vacation rentals outside the capital during the Olympics.

Already, August is a popular vacation time for the French. With a minimum of five weeks of vacation mandated by law, many decide to take the entire month off, renting out villas in beachside destinations for longer periods.

But beyond the typical August travel, the Olympics are having a real impact, says Bertille Marchal, a spokesperson for Gens de Confiance.

“We’ve seen nearly three times more reservations for the dates of the Olympics than the following two weeks,” Marchal says. “The increase is definitely linked to the Olympic Games.”

Worried about the hordes of crowds and overall chaos the Olympics could bring, Parisians are fleeing the city in droves and inundating resort cities around the country.
Getty Images

According to the site, the most sought-out vacation destinations are Morbihan and Loire-Atlantique, a seaside region in the northwest; le Var, a coastal area within the southeast of France along the Côte d’Azur; and the island of Corsica in the Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, the Olympics haven’t necessarily been a boon to foreign tourism in the country. Many tourists who might have otherwise come to France are avoiding it this year in favour of other European capitals. In Paris, demand for stays at high-end hotels has collapsed, with bookings down 50% in July compared to last year, according to UMIH Prestige, which represents hotels charging at least €800 ($865) a night for rooms.

Earlier this year, high-end restaurants and concierges said the Olympics might even be an opportunity to score a hard-get-seat at the city’s fine dining.

In the Occitanie region in southwest France, the overall number of reservations this summer hasn’t changed much from last year, says Vincent Gare, president of the regional tourism committee there.

“But looking further at the numbers, we do see an increase in the clientele coming from the Paris region,” Gare told Le Figaro, noting that the increase in reservations has fallen directly on the dates of the Olympic games.

Michel Barré, a retiree living in Paris’s Le Marais neighbourhood, is one of those opting for the beach rather than the opening ceremony. In January, he booked a stay in Normandy for two weeks.

“Even though it’s a major European capital, Paris is still a small city—it’s a massive effort to host all of these events,” Barré says. “The Olympics are going to be a mess.”

More than anything, he just wants some calm after an event-filled summer in Paris, which just before the Olympics experienced the drama of a snap election called by Macron.

“It’s been a hectic summer here,” he says.

Hotels and holiday rentals in some of France’s most popular vacation destinations say they are expecting massive crowds this year in advance of the Olympics.
AFP via Getty Images

Parisians—Barré included—feel that the city, by over-catering to its tourists, is driving out many residents.

Parts of the Seine—usually one of the most popular summertime hangout spots —have been closed off for weeks as the city installs bleachers and Olympics signage. In certain neighbourhoods, residents will need to scan a QR code with police to access their own apartments. And from the Olympics to Sept. 8, Paris is nearly doubling the price of transit tickets from €2.15 to €4 per ride.

The city’s clear willingness to capitalise on its tourists has motivated some residents to do the same. In March, the number of active Airbnb listings in Paris reached an all-time high as hosts rushed to list their apartments. Listings grew 40% from the same time last year, according to the company.

With their regular clients taking off, Parisian restaurants and merchants are complaining that business is down.

“Are there any Parisians left in Paris?” Alaine Fontaine, president of the restaurant industry association, told the radio station Franceinfo on Sunday. “For the last three weeks, there haven’t been any here.”

Still, for all the talk of those leaving, there are plenty who have decided to stick around.

Jay Swanson, an American expat and YouTuber, can’t imagine leaving during the Olympics—he secured his tickets to see ping pong and volleyball last year. He’s also less concerned about the crowds and road closures than others, having just put together a series of videos explaining how to navigate Paris during the games.

“It’s been 100 years since the Games came to Paris; when else will we get a chance to host the world like this?” Swanson says. “So many Parisians are leaving and tourism is down, so not only will it be quiet but the only people left will be here for a party.”

Workers, Get Ready for the Great Rebalancing

This may be the year when employer-employee power dynamics begin to normalize