Australian home market's first test of the year

The Australian property market will undergo its first major test tomorrow when 1,700 capital city homes go under the hammer on the first significant auction day of the year. CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said it will be the second biggest start to February on record behind 2022 when 1,779homes went to auction. In the country’s two biggest auction markets, there will be 608 auctions held in Melbourne and 591 in Sydney.

Ms Ezzy said auction clearance rates weakened to below-average levels toward the end of last year and tomorrow’s event would “help set the pace for the pre-Easter selling season and provide a timely test of buyer demand”.

She added: “This week’s results could help indicate whether the weaker selling condition seen towards the end of last year has persisted into 2023 or if sentiment has lifted with earlier expectations of rate cuts following [this week’s] inflation update.”

Australia’s median home value moved higher for the twelfth consecutive month in January, up 0.4 percent. This follows an 0.3 percent uplift in both November and December. However, price performance is mixed across the capital cities, with Perth once again delivering outstanding growth at 1.6 percent in January. CoreLogic research director, Tim Lawless explained: “The western capital continues to see housing demand outweigh supply, helping to push values 16.7 percent higher over the past 12 months. Despite that, housing prices remain relatively affordable compared with most capital cities, with the median dwelling value sitting just under $677,000.”

Adelaide home values lifted 1.1 percent in January, Brisbane prices rose by 1 percent and Sydney values moved up 0.2 percent. Conversely, Hobart home values fell 0.7 percent, Canberra prices dipped 0.2 percent and Melbourne declined by 0.1 percent.

Mr Lawless noted that house prices across Australia continued to rise faster than apartments. The price gap is now at a new record high of 45.2 percent. House values across the capital cities lifted by 0.5 percent in January, equivalent to about $4,800 in value, while apartments lifted 0.1 percent, or about $900 in value. “Since the commencement of the upswing, capital city house values have surged 11 percent higher while unit values are up 6.9 percent,” Mr Lawless said. “It seems that most Australians are willing to pay a higher premium than ever for a detached home.”

Sales volumes remain elevated, with CoreLogic estimating 115,241 dwellings were sold over the three months ending January, which was 11.9 percent higher than the same time last year. “Despite ongoing cost of living pressures, high interest rates, low consumer sentiment and affordability constraints, homes are still selling, Mr Lawless said. “Housing demand has been buoyed by high migration, but also tight rental markets that have probably incentivised renters to transition towards home ownership if they can afford to do so.”

Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.

Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.

Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.

“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.

“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”

Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.

Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.

“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.

Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.

He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.

“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.

“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”

Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.

He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.

McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.

While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.

“People are looking for value for money,” she said.

She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.

“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.

The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.

“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.

He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.

While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.

“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.

Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.

Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.

McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.

Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.

“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.

“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”

As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.

Australian home market’s first test of the year

It’s the first big auction day of 2024 as the gap between apartment and house values widens

Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.