Heat coming out of V-shaped property market recovery

The V-shaped recovery in Australia’s property market was interrupted in November, with CoreLogic’s national home value index recording its smallest monthly gain since the new growth cycle began in February. Melbourne home values dipped by 0.1% and Sydney’s growth rate slowed sharply to 0.3%, representing a significant cooling in Australia’s two biggest property markets, and dragging down the national home value growth rate to 0.6%.

Factors taking the heat out of Melbourne and Sydney include affordability constraints, rising interest rates, pessimistic consumer sentiment and a higher number of homes for sale. CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said market weakness was more pronounced in the upper price brackets. “The more expensive end of the market tends to lead the cycles in these cities. As borrowing capacity reduces, we may be seeing more demand deflected towards lower housing price points, with the broad middle of the market now recording the strongest rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne.”

Meantime, the Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide markets continue to rise strongly. Perth dwelling values surged by 1.9% in November – the largest monthly gain since March 2021 – while Brisbane moved 1.3% higher and Adelaide went up 1.2%. Mr Lawless said buyer demand was strong amid low levels of supply. “This imbalance between available supply and demonstrated demand is keeping strong upwards pressure on housing values across these markets, despite the downside factors leading to weaker housing market conditions across the lower eastern seaboard,” Mr Lawless said.

Canberra recorded subdued growth at 0.5%, Hobart values fell 0.1% and Darwin values fell 0.3% last month. The supply of homes for sale began increasing over winter, which is seasonally unusual, leading to stock levels above five-year averages in Hobart, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney today.“In these cities, market conditions are now in favour of buyers as higher stock levels provide more choice, less urgency and greater opportunities to negotiate,” Mr Lawless said.

“The same can’t be said for Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, where advertised stock levels remain remarkably low. Perth listings are nearly 40% below their five-year average for this time of the year, while listings are more than 30% below average in Brisbane and Adelaide. Unsurprisingly, these cities are continuing to show a consistently high rate of growth amid strong selling conditions.”

Perth, Brisbane and Sydney have been the strongest performing capital city markets of 2023 with home values up 13.6%, 11.9% and 11.3%, respectively. Regional markets have lagged behind the capital cities this year, with the strongest gains seen in regional South Australia, up 9.6%, regional Queensland, up 7.9% and regional Western Australia, up 7%. Overall, regional property prices remain 1.8% below their historical peak recorded at the top of the last cycle in May 2022.

Mr Lawless said it would be “a very different housing market” in 2024. “It is looking increasingly clear the housing market is moving through a new inflection point, with the rate of growth in home values becoming more diverse, but generally weakening,” he said. The prospect of higher interest rates for longer has likely dampened buyer confidence as well. “We don’t expect to see a material lift in housing activity until interest rates reduce, and that isn’t likely until the second half of next year.”