The suburbs where we’re building the most new homes
Amid a national housing crisis, these are the home building hot spots
2 min
Australia is in the midst of a housing crisis with supply challenges and demand pressures leading to a clogged pipeline of unfinished new home builds and approvals per capita languishing at decade-lows. There aren’t enough tradies to finish the homes under construction in normal timeframes. Meantime, construction costs have risen by 40 percent since late 2019 and contributed to dramatically higher insolvencies among building companies. High interest rates and lengthy approval processes have also prompted some developers to shelve plans for new projects altogether.
All of these challenges mean the National Housing Accord, with its ambition to build 1.2 million well-located homes over the next five years, will begin shortly amid very difficult conditions. However, the Federal and state and territory governments have agreed to the plan and plenty of money was allocated in the recent Federal Budget to get the program officially underway from 1 July.
Meanwhile, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) has published a report revealing the areas that are in line to receive the most new homes soonest, based on the value of approvals during FY23. The HIA has paired this data with population figures to identify the growth hot spots across Australia.
HIA economist Maurice Tapang said the top 20 hot spots for new approvals and above-average population growth were predominantly suburbs with greenfield developments. These developments require state governments to fund and build supporting infrastructure such as power lines, sewage and water pipes, roads and footpaths to service thousands of new residential lots.
“This is testament to the role that greenfield developments play in supporting the growth of our cities,” Mr Tapang said. “The drivers of housing demand are population and economic growth. Supporting population growth will require supplying adequate homes, which will entail providing the necessary infrastructure and land supply to grow our cities.
“As the high cost of the typical house and land package in some of our capital cities becomes out of reach to the typical income earner, it is important for policymakers to facilitate the supply needed to fill housing shortages. In order to build the Australian Government’s target of 1.2 million homes, there needs to be a healthy balance between greenfield and infill developments to support building well-located homes of all types.”
Australia’s top 6 home building and population hot spots
Box Hill – Nelson
In NSW, the top new home building hot spot is Box Hill – Nelson in Sydney’s Hills District, with $597 million in approvals and population growth of 26.5% in FY23.
Fraser Rise – Plumpton
Fraser Rise – Plumpton in Melbourne’s west was Victoria’s biggest growth hot spot, with $660.1 million in approvals along with 26.4% population growth.
Marsden Park – Shanes Park
Located in Sydney’s Blacktown area in the western suburbs, Marsden Park – Shanes Park booked $370 million in approvals and 19.7% population growth.
Tarneit – North
Located in Melbourne’s western suburbs, Tarneit – North recorded $384.3 million in new home building approvals and 18.9% population growth.
Rockbank – Mount Cottrell
Also in Melbourne’s western suburbs, Rockbank – Mount Cottrell had $593.4 million in approvals and 18.7% population growth.
Chambers Flat – Logan Reserve
Chambers Flat – Logan Reserve in the City of Logan, south of Brisbane, was Queensland’s biggest growth hot spot with $264.6 million in approvals and 18.4% population growth.
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New detached-home sales fell 10% nationally in August, led by a 27% decline in Victoria, raising concerns about construction starts in 2027.
2 min
Australia’s hoped-for recovery in housing construction is losing momentum before it has had time to close the national supply gap.
Sales of new detached homes fell 10 per cent nationally in August, according to the Housing Industry Association’s survey of major volume builders across the five largest mainland states. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
The fall was broad rather than isolated. Victoria recorded the largest retreat, down 27 per cent, followed by Queensland at 20.2 per cent, New South Wales at 17.5 per cent, South Australia at 10.8 per cent and Western Australia at 8.2 per cent.
Across the three months to August, sales were 19.3 per cent below the preceding three-month period and 7.7 per cent lower than the equivalent period a year earlier.
New-home sales matter beyond the immediate fortunes of volume builders. They are an early indicator of future starts: buyers sign contracts, finance is finalised, approvals are secured and construction follows months later. A sustained sales decline during the middle of 2026 is therefore likely to weaken commencements during 2027.
The slowdown reflects the collision of several pressures. Households have absorbed multiple interest-rate rises, reducing borrowing capacity and increasing the repayment cost attached to a new build. Established-home prices have softened in some markets, weakening the relative appeal of waiting through a construction period. Builders continue to face elevated labour and material costs.
The Reserve Bank’s August analysis showed new-dwelling construction prices increased 1.8 per cent during the June quarter and 5.3 per cent over the year. It attributed part of the pressure to oil-derived building products and other conflict-related costs.
Policy uncertainty can also cause buyers and investors to defer large commitments. But the precise contribution of any single tax or regulatory change is difficult to isolate from rates, confidence, land prices and construction costs. The HIA survey should be read as an indicator from large builders rather than a complete count of every dwelling sale.
The figures complicate progress towards the Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council reported 308,000 completions since the Accord began and 244,000 dwellings under construction in the March quarter. Approvals and commencements had improved, but falling sales risk undermining the next wave.
For developers and governments, the warning is that planning approvals alone do not create homes. Projects need finance, viable construction pricing and buyers able to settle. If one part fails, approved supply can remain on paper.
Data box
National August new-home sales: Down 10 per cent
Three months to August: Down 19.3 per cent from the preceding three months
Year-on-year three-month comparison: Down 7.7 per cent
Victoria: Down 27 per cent
Queensland: Down 20.2 per cent
New South Wales: Down 17.5 per cent
South Australia: Down 10.8 per cent
Western Australia: Down 8.2 per cent
Australia’s housing market defies forecasts as prices surge past pandemic-era benchmarks.
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