Melbourne set to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city as property demand surges

Australia’s housing market has lost momentum, with Cotality’s latest Home Value Index revealing national dwelling values were flat in May as affordability constraints, higher borrowing costs and weakening buyer sentiment continue to weigh on demand.

The national result masks increasingly divergent conditions across the country.

Sydney and Melbourne led the decline, with dwelling values falling 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively over the month.

Sydney values are now 2.1 per cent below their November 2025 peak, while Melbourne values sit 3.2 per cent below their March 2022 high.

In contrast, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continued to record growth, although even the stronger-performing markets are beginning to show signs of slowing.

Perth again led the capitals, recording monthly growth of 1.5 per cent and annual growth of 25.8 per cent. Brisbane values increased 0.9 per cent in May and are now 19.1 per cent higher than a year ago, while Adelaide recorded a 0.5 per cent monthly rise and annua growth of 12.3 per cent.

Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said Australia’s housing market continues to operate at vastly different speeds depending on location.

“We are continuing to see multi-speed conditions across Australia’s housing sector, with Perth and Melbourne at opposite ends of the spectrum,” Lawless said.

“The past five years have seen these cities diverge sharply, with Perth values up a stunning 91.4 per cent while Melbourne home values are only 3.3 per cent higher since May 2021.”

Lawless said while the pace of value growth remains highly varied between cities, a common trend is emerging.

“While the speed of value change remains very different from city to city, the direction is becoming more consistent, with most markets losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify.”

The slowdown is becoming increasingly evident in transaction activity.

National home sales over the past three months were estimated to be 2.2 per cent lower than a year ago and 4.1 per cent below the five-year average.

Sydney and Melbourne recorded the sharpest declines in sales activity, down 17.0 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively compared to the same period last year.

Lawless said higher listing volumes are shifting negotiating power back towards buyers.

“These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers,” he said.

The softer conditions come despite ongoing supply constraints across much of the country. Construction costs remain elevated and feasibility challenges continue to limit new housing delivery, even as governments in NSW and Victoria continue to implement planning reforms designed to accelerate approvals and increase apartment supply.

For the new apartment sector, the data highlights an increasingly important divide between established housing markets and the off-the-plan market.

While detached housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne continue to soften, the supply of new apartments remains well below the levels required to meet population growth and federal housing targets.

This imbalance is likely to continue supporting demand for new apartment stock, particularly in major urban centres where affordability pressures are forcing more buyers towards higher-density housing options.

The latest rental figures also reinforce the underlying strength of housing demand.

National rents increased another 0.6 per cent in May, taking annual rental growth to 5.9 per cent. Vacancy rates remain at just 1.5 per cent nationally, matching the record lows experienced during the post-pandemic migration surge.

Lawless said renters are increasingly reaching affordability limits.

“With renters dedicating around a third of their pre-tax income to rental payments, it’s uncertain how much longer this upswing in rents can last,” he said.

The housing slowdown is unfolding against a backdrop of improving inflation data and growing confidence that interest rates will remain on hold when the Reserve Bank meets in June.

Australia’s monthly inflation indicator has continued to trend lower in recent months, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA is unlikely to lift the cash rate again in the near term.

Financial markets and economists have increasingly shifted their focus towards the timing of future rate cuts rather than the prospect of further tightening.

While the RBA remains cautious about services inflation and housing-related costs, recent inflation outcomes have largely eased concerns that another rate rise would be required.

That is providing some support to housing sentiment, although affordability and borrowing capacity remain significant constraints.

For now, Cotality’s data suggests the housing market is entering a more subdued phase rather than facing a sharp correction.

Affordability pressures, weaker confidence and slower sales activity are weighing on demand, while population growth, tight rental markets and constrained housing supply continue to provide a floor underneath values.

The result is a housing market that remains highly fragmented, with Sydney and Melbourne continuing to cool, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain in growth mode, albeit at a slower pace than seen over the past two years.