Building approvals fall as high rise apartment development languishes
The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show little headway being made in the Federal Government’s push to create more housing
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Building approvals fell 6.1 percent in August after a rise of 11 percent in July, mostly driven by the apartment sector, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has revealed. Figures released yesterday show the number of total dwellings approved in the last month of winter was 13,991, with the biggest decline in NSW and South Australia, both at -11.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. However, approvals for private dwellings excluding houses — townhouses and apartments — saw a 16.5 percent drop on the same time last year.
The fall has been attributed to the drop in approval for high density apartments blocks more than nine storeys high. Figures show there were 1,214 apartments approved in August 2024 compared with 2,504 in July.
Property Council of Australia Group Executive Policy and Advocacy Matthew Kandelaars said the numbers were disappointing.
“We need to increase the number of homes approved and ensure a strong pipeline of apartment supply, to drive towards our housing targets at scale,” Mr Kandelaars said.
“But the reality is that it has never been more difficult and costly to get apartments out of the ground.”
He said ‘apartment-killer’ taxes and planning systems had had a negative effect on housing supply at a time when the country is struggling to deal with a housing crisis.
“Over the past year, we approved nearly 9,000 fewer apartments and townhouses across the country than in the preceding 12-month period,” he said.
“We need that number to increase month on month to build the homes Australians need.”
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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.
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