Canadian Property Market Hurt by Tariff Concerns
Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.
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OTTAWA–The nascent recovery in Canada’s housing market has become a casualty of the trade dispute with the U.S.
The latest national home-resale data are due out Tuesday, but early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month as many prospective buyers exercised caution.
The recent weakness in home sales has dimmed the previously brighter outlook for the property market coming into 2025, when buyers were encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate cuts.
“The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier,” said Robert Hogue , assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
Hogue said resales are down materially in a number of markets two months running, and home prices in several markets are coming under pressure as inventories rise. And although Canada was spared additional levies when President Trump unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries earlier this month, no meaningful rebound is likely so long as trade uncertainty lingers, he said.
Home buyers in Toronto, Canada’s most populous city and the country’s financial hub, aren’t turning up for the usual spring pickup in property-market activity.
Sales in the Greater Toronto Area slumped 23.1% in March from a year earlier, as new listings for the region jumped close to 29%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That marked the worst month of resales since 1998.
The board’s chief information officer, Jason Mercer , said many potential home buyers were likely taking a wait-and-see approach given the economic worries as well as a pending federal election. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he said, adding that ownership has become more affordable and prices in the area fell about 3.8% year on year in March.
Uncertainty is also weighing on the housing market in Calgary, the biggest city in oil-rich Alberta. The city’s real-estate board said realtors reported a 19% drop in sales of existing homes from last year, with a similar trend of improving supply and a sharp increase in the average number of days that homes were on the market.
On the West Coast, home sales registered in the metro Vancouver area of British Columbia were the lowest for March since 2019, falling 13.4% on a year earlier and coming in close to 37% below the 10-year seasonal average, while active listings continued to rise.
There are some areas of resilience. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said total sales in the province were up 9% year on year in March. Still, RBC’s Hogue estimated Montreal sales in March were down about 15% from December seasonally adjusted, effectively rolling back the advance since the end of last summer.
The most recent national data for the country, from the Canadian Real Estate Association, showed resales dropped 9.8% month over month in February, when homebuyers may also have been put off by harsh winter storms in parts of the country. That marked the sharpest fall since May 2022 and brought the level of sales to their lowest level since November 2023, snapping signs that activity had been picking up in recent months.
Rishi Sondhi , an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a recent report estimated the country was tracking toward a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single-digit drop in Canadian average home prices for the first three months of 2025. That is much weaker than a pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December that projected a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest gain in sales and prices.
Central-bank officials are set to decide Wednesday on monetary policy, but they have signaled a cautious approach to rates as they balance the prospect of tariffs stoking price pressures against the likelihood that they will dampen demand and weigh on the economy. That could mean the Bank of Canada will pause after seven straight cuts to its policy rate.
Housing is a hot topic for party leaders campaigning ahead of the April 28 election, with both the incumbent Liberal Party and opposition Conservatives proposing tax cuts and incentives to encourage buyers and builders.
The outlook for new homes has also dimmed with the tariff threat. The value of residential-building permits issued in February fell 2.9% from a month prior, adding to a retreat in January that took back some of the surge in intentions in the final month of last year, Statistics Canada data last week showed.
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The 2026 McGrath Report warns that without urgent reforms to planning, infrastructure and construction, housing affordability will continue to slip beyond reach for most Australians.
3 min
Australia’s housing market has reached a critical juncture, with home ownership and rental affordability deteriorating to their worst levels in decades, according to the McGrath Report 2026.
The annual analysis from real estate entrepreneur John McGrath paints a sobering picture of a nation where even the “lucky country” has run out of luck — or at least, out of homes.
New borrowers are now spending half their household income servicing loans, while renters are devoting one-third of their earnings to rent.
The time needed to save a 20 per cent deposit has stretched beyond ten years, and the home price-to-income ratio has climbed to eight times. “These aren’t just statistics,” McGrath writes. “They represent real people and real pain.”
McGrath argues that the root cause of Australia’s housing crisis is not a shortage of land, but a shortage of accessibility and deliverable stock.
“Over half our population has squeezed into just three cities, creating price pressure and rising density in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane while vast developable land sits disconnected from essential infrastructure,” he says.
The report identifies three faltering pillars — supply, affordability and construction viability — as the drivers of instability in the current market.
Developers across the country, McGrath notes, are “unable to make the numbers work” due to labour shortages and soaring construction costs.
In many trades, shortages have doubled or tripled, and build costs have surged by more than 30 per cent, stalling thousands of projects.
Need for systemic reform
McGrath’s prescription is clear: the only real solution lies in increasing supply through systemic reform. “We need to streamline development processes, reduce approval timeframes and provide better infrastructure to free up the options and provide more choice for everyone on where they live,” he says.
The 2026 edition of the report also points to promising trends in policy and innovation. Across several states, governments are prioritising higher-density development near transport hubs and repurposing government-owned land with existing infrastructure.
Build-to-rent models are expanding, and planning reforms are gaining traction. McGrath notes that while these steps are encouraging, they must be accelerated and supported by new construction methods if Australia is to meet demand.
One of the report’s key opportunities lies in prefabrication and modular design. “Prefabricated homes can be completed in 10–12 weeks compared to 18 months for a traditional house, saving time and money for everyone involved,” McGrath says.
The report suggests that modular and 3D-printed housing could play a significant role in addressing shortages while setting a new global benchmark for speed, cost and quality in residential construction.
Intelligent homes
In a section titled Weathering the Future: The Power of Smart Design, the report emphasises that sustainable and intelligent home design is no longer aspirational but essential.
It highlights new technologies that reduce energy use, improve thermal efficiency, and make homes more resilient to climate risks.
“There’s no reason why Australia shouldn’t be a world leader in innovative design and construction — and many reasons why we should be,” McGrath writes.
Despite the challenges, the tone of the 2026 McGrath Report is one of cautious optimism. Demand is expected to stabilise at around 175,000 households per year from 2026, and construction cost growth is finally slowing. Governments are also showing a greater willingness to reform outdated planning frameworks.
McGrath concludes that the path forward requires bold decisions and collaboration between all levels of government and industry.
“Australia has the land, demand and capability,” he says. “What we need now is the will to implement supply-focused solutions that address root causes rather than symptoms.”
“Only then,” he adds, “can we turn the dream of home ownership back into something more than a dream.”
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