Covid Slashed Consumer Choices. This Is Why They Aren’t Coming Back.

The furniture retailer Malouf sells beds and bedding in a fraction of the colours it did a few years ago. Newell Brands, the Sharpie maker, has retired 50 types of Yankee Candle. Coca-Cola offers half as many drinks.

Covid slashed consumer choices as companies pared their offerings to ease clogs in the supply chain. The logistical mess is behind them. But many of the choices aren’t coming back.

Retailers and suppliers across industries—from groceries to health, beauty and furniture—have said that it didn’t pay to offer products for everyone, and consumers didn’t care that much when they stopped.

“Today, people would rather lose a portion of consumer demand as opposed to spending extra on too much variety,” said Inna Kuznetsova, chief executive officer of ToolsGroup, a supply-chain planning and optimisation company.

Macy’s president and CEO-elect, Tony Spring, told analysts in November that “the customer today does not want an endless aisle.”

New items made up about 2% of products in stores in 2023 across categories such as beauty, footwear and toys, down from 5% of items in 2019, according to the market-research firm Circana. Shelf Engine, a technology company that automates ordering for grocery retailers, said large grocery stores have reduced fresh-food offerings such as fruit, dairy products and deli meats by 15% to 20%.

Large grocers cutting back on choice is a reversal from pre pandemic days, when they believed they had to carry everything to avoid losing customers to the store across the street, said Stefan Kalb, CEO of Shelf Engine.

Kalb said that grocers are now saving money because they have fewer items to manage and that the slimming of product options is reducing food waste.

Executives at consumer-product companies said the thinning of their product lines has been a relief for those struggling to improve profitability in the midst of higher interest rates and rising costs for raw materials and labor. They said many of the reductions have been in lines that consumers wouldn’t notice, such as items in special packaging and assortments for specific big-box retailers. The cutbacks are also to product lines that drown consumers in options.

“I don’t think any consumer would have noticed we went from 200 to 150” types of Yankee Candle, said Chris Peterson, chief executive of Newell Brands.

Some industry specialists said the new focus on bestselling items has reduced innovation and hurt smaller brands that rely on retailers’ desire to carry something for everyone.

“There has definitely been less innovation since the pandemic,” said Seth Goldman, a founder of the organic-beverage maker Honest Tea, which was bought by Coca-Cola in 2011 and discontinued in 2022.

Coca-Cola over the past few years reduced its brands to 200 from 400, cutting slow-growing as well as declining products, including small regional lines such as Northern Neck Ginger Ale and national brands such as its first diet cola, Tab.

“It was pruning the garden to let the better plants grow,” Coca-Cola Chief Executive James Quincey said in 2022.

Goldman said there was still demand for Honest Tea, even if it wasn’t big enough for Coca-Cola. In September 2022, four months after Coca-Cola’s announcement, he launched Just Ice Tea, a drink that he said is similar to Honest Tea and that is expected to have sales in 2023 of more than $16 million.

Companies began winnowing product lines in the years leading up to the pandemic as a corrective to previous decades when consumer choice ballooned. That was partly because of the internet, where online retailers weren’t constrained by the space limitations of physical stores, giving rise to the term “endless aisle.”

The cuts were turbocharged in 2020 and 2021, when product shortages and a surge in consumer spending led companies to give priority to the most in-demand items. They focused on products that ran fastest on production lines and, because of social distancing in factories, could be made with automated machinery.

Kimberly-Clark cut more than 70% of its toilet paper and facial-tissue products over a single weekend in 2020 as it rushed to satisfy a fourfold increase in demand, said Tamera Fenske, the company’s chief supply chain officer.

Fenske said the company jettisoned slow-selling items as well as many of the special counts and custom sizes it made for individual retailers. Fenske said that, as pandemic restrictions eased, Kimberly-Clark was able to be more thoughtful about the items it brought back. She said the company carries about 30% fewer product lines in North America than it had at the start of 2020.

PVH, which owns Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, embarked in 2020 on a plan to cut more than a fifth of its offerings to focus on what it calls “hero” products—those that make up an essential part of someone’s wardrobe.

Kimberly-Clark, maker of Scott paper towels, has brought back some, but not all, of the products it stopped offering during the pandemic. PHOTO: KRISTEN NORMAN FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Some companies said the culling of less-popular products opened up space for new lines.

Georgia-Pacific stopped selling 164-sheet rolls of Quilted Northern toilet paper because its larger rolls were better for consumers who valued longer-lasting rolls, said Kim Burns, senior vice president of supply chain for Georgia-Pacific’s consumer products group. Burns said the company has subsequently invested more time and money in new product lines, such as toilet paper with a scented tube that acts as a bathroom air freshener.

For other companies, the supply-chain shock provided a real-life experiment in how trimming product lines could improve productivity without hurting customer satisfaction. “It was quite shocking as we parsed it out to see we were using a lot of our buying power to really not get much of a return on investment,” said Nick Jensen, vice president of product at Malouf.

The Logan, Utah-based furniture company has reduced its lines to about 3,500 product choices, down from almost 11,000 items before the pandemic. Jensen said the company is adding new items more carefully these days.

“If we have 15 different colours and three shades of grey, it’s a paralysing choice,” Jensen said. “It’s kind of forced us to be much more intentional versus throwing a lot of things at the wall and hoping that they stick.”

—Suzanne Kapner contributed to this article.

International Holidays 33 Percent More Expensive Than Pre-COVID

Travelling overseas is significantly more expensive than before the pandemic, and the cost has risen at a much faster rate than domestic travel. New Finder research shows domestic holidays are 19 percent more expensive than pre-COVID, while international holidays now cost 33 percent more.

Australians are spending an average of $6,765 on international trips, according to Finder. Accommodation is the most expensive component at $2,343 on average, closely followed by flights at $2,153. Finder’s travel expert, Angus Kidman said higher demand had pushed prices up. “International travel has become more costly as pent-up demand and the peak European summer season coincide.” Other factors that have made international travel more expensive in 2023 include higher jet fuel prices, staff shortages at airlines and airports, worldwide inflation and airlines being slow to return all their planes to the sky following their fleets’ grounding during COVID-19.

But higher costs have not deterred people from heading abroad. Australians are making up for lost time, with ‘COVID revenge travel’ prompting many to head overseas this year. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, leisure dominated overseas travel intentions in FY23, with 53 percent of travellers going overseas for a holiday, 32 percent travelling to visit friends and family and only 6 percent heading overseas on business.

Government forecasts show Aussies will keep travelling overseas in 2024 despite the significantly higher costs, and demand is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of the new year. However, there are signs that the cost-of-living crisis is starting to bite, and 2024 may the last big year of revenge travel before Australians tighten their belts. According to the Tourism Forecasts for Australia 2023 to 2028 report: “In 2023, 9.8 million resident returns are expected, which would be 86 percent of the pre-pandemic level. This increases to 11.3 million resident returns in 2024, which is nearing parity with the number of resident returns in 2019. Looking forward, cost-of-living and budget pressures in Australia are expected to weigh on outbound travel growth. Compared to last year’s forecasts, the profile for outbound growth is very similar. However, high global travel costs and reduced household savings in Australia have had a mild dampening effect.”

Finder says 54 percent of Australians intend to travel in the new year, with 15 percent heading overseas, 14 per cent intending to travel both overseas and domestically, and 25 percent planning to holiday only in Australia. Online travel agent KAYAK says searches for 2024 flights are up dramatically. “As Aussies, travel is in our DNA and despite macroeconomic uncertainties it looks like many Aussies are still struck by the travel bug, with searches for flights to both international and domestic destinations up 47 percent for travel over the next 12 months compared to last year,” said brand director Nicola Carmichael.

Top 10 overseas destinations for Australians in 2023

  1. Indonesia
  2. United States
  3. United Kingdom
  4. Italy
  5. Thailand
  6. France
  7. New Zealand
  8. Japan
  9. Singapore
  10. Vietnam

 

Source: Finder Travel Inflation Report

How to Make Your Phone Last Forever: 6 Simple Tips

THE MARS rover Opportunity, launched in 2004, was only designed to complete a 90-day mission. But thanks to the efforts of many engineers and scientists, it wasn’t until 2019, 15 years later, that it finally stopped sending updates to NASA.

The more these scientists worked on the device, the more connected they felt to it, says Janet Vertesi, a sociologist of science and technology at Princeton University whose research included NASA’s rover programs. After all, she said, “you don’t just go to the Genius bar and get another one.”

Her reference to Apple’s Genius bar is telling: No matter how connected we get to our phones, most people accept that they’ll soon seem obsolete. The average phone in America is only used for around 2½ years, according to data published by intelligence platform Statista.

But a smartphone can last much longer. I should know. I used a Pixel 2, which came out in October 2017, as my primary phone until this summer. I loved how well the small phone fit in my hand, was happy enough with the photos it took and appreciated the speedy Android apps. My friends occasionally teased me for using the “dated” gadget (“Aren’t you a tech journalist?”). Unfortunately, it stopped receiving software updates this fall. It was time to shop for a new phone.

I ended up getting the third-generation iPhone SE from 2022. I like its smaller size, and that Apple promises it will get software updates for at least five years. To try to keep it for longer, I reached out to experts for advice.

Save Your Phone’s Life: Easy-to-Follow Tips to Keep It Going
Tip 1: Check for updates.

Your phone stores info about every aspect of your life. Without security updates, it’s all at risk, says Thorin Klosowski, a security and privacy activist at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights advocacy organisation. Apple offers software upgrades for at least five years and security updates for longer. This year’s Google Pixel eight will get updates through 2030. Samsung promises security updates for four years minimum.

Tip 2: Put a case on it.

Every expert I spoke with said that getting a case and a screen protector are the most important steps to maintaining a phone’s life economically. Investing in this combo rarely exceeds $50, while repairing your screen can top $200.

Tip 3: Clean your filthy, disgusting charge port.

If you’ve ever had trouble getting your phone to charge, even with endless cord fiddling, you might have thought it kaput. But the port itself, whether Lightning or USB-C, might not be broken. Try gently inserting a straightened-out paper clip along its sides to see if it’s full of pocket lint and random dust. (A can of compressed air works too.) Then, use a lint plug, a removable piece of rubber that can sit in your port, to prevent more buildup.

Tip 4: Monitor your battery health.

“Many problems that appear to be defects in [a] phone are really problems with dying batteries,” said Gay Gordon-Byrne, executive director of the Repair Association, a New York-based trade group that advocates for right-to-repair laws. You can check your battery’s health in the settings menu on both Apple or Android phones. If your iPhone says your battery’s “Maximum Capacity” is 80% or less under “Battery Health,” it’s probably time to replace it.

Tip 5: Know your repair options.

If you do need to replace a battery or screen, don’t accidentally overpay to fix it. Apple has a tool on its website that will quickly estimate the cost of common repairs for your specific phone. (It says it will cost $69 to repair the battery on my new SE.) You can maybe get things fixed cheaper at local shops, but there might be quirks. After a non-Apple repair person replaces an iPhone battery, for example, your phone might send a warning it’s “unable to verify” whether it has a “genuine Apple battery.”

Tip 6: If all else fails, repurpose.

When your phone’s maker declares it obsolete, and stops sending software and security updates, don’t just accept the death sentence. Compromise on some of its capabilities. Start, Klosowski says, with a factory reset, and update your OS as much as you can. Then, you can download apps that will let your phone replace or augment your primary devices. It can be a dedicated alarm clock, smart home hub, remote control, digital picture frame, or even an extra camera for your home security system.

Top Suburbs For House Price Growth In 2023

]The strongest house price growth was seen in Australia’s more affordable suburbs in 2023, as high interest rates and an average 30% reduction in borrowing capacity prompted more buying activity in markets with lower median prices.

CoreLogic’s annual Best of the Best report reveals that Brookdale in Perth recorded the highest house price growth of the capital cities at 32.8% to a median value of $474,532. Across the regional markets, Tralee in the south-east of NSW and close to the ACT border recorded the best growth at 34.2% to a median house price of $782,764.

The Australian housing market has demonstrated surprising resilience despite interest rates rising substantially over a short period. CoreLogic reports that the average home loan size today is only 0.1% below where it was at the peak of the cycle in April 2022 before rate rises began. This likely reflects two trends. The first is more purchasing activity in lower-priced markets where buyers need smaller loans. CoreLogic says the cheaper capital cities of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide demonstrated more resilience during the 2022 downswing and strong growth in 2023.

The second trend is more buying activity among wealthy Australians, foreign investors and downsizers, who are less reliant on credit to buy. Additionally, a shortage of homes for sale across the board created stronger competition, as many would-be sellers waited for prices to fully recover following the 2022 market correction. Mortgage holders coped well with rising rates by leaning on savings buffers, working more hours and reducing their discretionary spending at the shops.

However, there are signs that high interest rates are now starting to bite, with the pace of property price growth slowing and auction clearance rates falling in the second half of 2023. This was first seen across the upper price brackets of the market, and CoreLogic expects this trend to filter through to the low to middle price brackets next year. Tougher economic conditions may also weaken the market, with the Reserve Bank forecasting unemployment to rise in 2024 amid subdued economic growth. Most analysts say interest rates are unlikely to fall until very late in 2024 at the earliest.

CoreLogic Head of Research Tim Lawless says it will be a different market next year and price growth will be lower. “Growth in housing values is likely to show greater diversity, both geographically and across housing types,” he said. “Overall, housing value performance is likely to be softer next year relative to 2023. Western Australia and Queensland look well placed to outperform the rest of the country given solid interstate migration rates, low supply and less affordability challenges relative to Sydney and Melbourne. Unit values also are positioned to outperform relative to houses, given the cheaper price points and burgeoning undersupply across the medium to high density sector.”

 

Suburbs in capital cities with the greatest house price growth:  

  1. Brookdale, Perth (up 32.8% to a median value of $474,532)
  2. Armadale, Perth (up 31.4% to $422,427)
  3. Hilbert, Perth (up 30.1% to $525,827)
  4. Ravenswood, Perth (up 29.2% to $630,258)
  5. Whitlam, Canberra (up 29.1% to $1,158,983)
  6. Camillo, Perth (up 27.3% to $440,749)
  7. Haynes, Perth (up 25.7% to $494,323)
  8. Bayview, Sydney (up 25.3% to $3,123,777)
  9. Seville Grove, Perth (up 25.2% to $540,983)
  10. Gosnells, Perth (up 25.1% to $475,030)

 

Suburbs in regional areas with the greatest house price growth:  

  1. Tralee, NSW (up 34.2% to $782,764)
  2. Port Vincent, SA (up 25.9% to $404,359)
  3. Angaston, SA (up 23.9% to $573,883)
  4. Mount Morgan, QLD (up 22.8% to $198,636)
  5. Kapunda, SA (up 21.4% to $445,814)
  6. Barraba, NSW (up 21.2% to $258,652)
  7. York, WA (up 21.1% to $373,340)
  8. Green Head, WA (up 21% to $378,433)
  9. Kingscote, SA (up 20.8% to $434,232)
  10. Waroona, WA (up 20.6% to $430,990)

 

This Country Will Police ‘Shrinkflation’ at the Supermarket

SEOUL—Food prices have risen so much that Kim Soo-yeon has developed a suspicious new habit at the grocery store. She has taken to shaking bags of her favourite brands of potato chips to see if they feel lighter.

“If companies are reducing the amount of food by unnoticeable amounts, it feels deceptive,” said the 32-year-old office worker in Seoul.

South Korean authorities will soon be backing her up in the supermarket aisles.

Seeking to temper the effects of inflation, many countries have sought to use political pressure to dissuade food makers from gouging consumers—with higher prices or lower volumes. South Korea is taking things a step further.

Starting next year, the country will require companies to disclose on their packages and websites when grocery items drop in volume, but not price. To ensure firms comply, South Korea is establishing a dedicated price-investigation team to monitor any fluctuations. Officials are considering levying fines, too.

South Korea’s muscular response to “shrinkflation” reflects how a sluggish economy—its projected full-year growth of 1.4% is roughly half that of other wealthy countries—has become a major problem for President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose approval ratings remain stuck in the mid-30s. Those unhappy with Yoon most commonly cite economic issues.

The new proposals to fight shrinkflation came as the government unveiled an initial list of violators. Following a monthlong investigation, authorities said the offerings of everything from beer to Vienna sausages to dumplings had quietly gotten smaller. Some 16 variants of flavoured almonds had shrunk, too.

Choi Si-yeon, a 28-year-old office worker, said she was angry when she found out about what had happened with her favorite wasabi-flavored almonds. Each bag contained 20 grams less, a seemingly undetectable amount.

“If they had raised the price, at least some consumers would notice,” Choi said.

The maker of the snack, a South Korean firm called HBAF, for Healthy But Awesome Flavors, said it had disclosed the product-size changes on its website. The firm pointed to the pandemic, a rise in labor costs and almond prices as factors.

Other companies also claimed to have made online disclosures or argued the slimmed-down offerings were part of flavour revamps.

Shrinkflation backlash has emerged elsewhere, too. France’s second-largest supermarket chain, Carrefour, has put up bright orange signs to highlight products it deems subject to shrinkflation since September. In the U.S., Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.) recently issued a report on shrinkflation, citing facial tissues and Oreos as examples.

With costs rising, what is often lacking is transparency over potential changes, creating room for a sense of injustice when shrinkflation occurs, said Rajiv Biswas, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Consumers can’t check the website of hundreds of products,” he said.

Headline inflation in South Korea topped out at 6.3% in July 2022 from the prior year, below the recent peaks of 9.1% in the U.S. and 11.1% in the U.K. But food prices in the East Asian country had remained relatively low for decades, so the recent upticks have triggered outsize anger. Wages haven’t kept pace with rising prices. The country’s housing market—the main source of wealth for many South Koreans—has stagnated.

A majority of South Koreans plan to spend less money next year, according to a recent poll, with nearly half of respondents citing inflation as the chief reason.

Low inflation had been a particular policy priority for South Korea over the decades, helping the country’s export-heavy economy maintain a good environment for private investment, said Randall Jones, a former senior official at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development who led the group’s economic reports on South Korea.

“People aren’t used to inflation in South Korea,” said Jones, who is now a distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

South Korea is conducting daily price checks for more than two dozen staple items such as milk and ramen noodles. The country’s antitrust regulator will list any shrinkflation examples on a newly created website and will handle enforcement of the new measures. The government wants to ink agreements with large South Korean retailers to build a joint monitoring system for some 10,000 everyday items.

That sliced cheese and other inexpensive items were among the first named shrinkflation violators irks people like Lee Hyun-woo, a 23-year-old university student. “If even processed food is shrinking, I feel betrayed,” Lee said.

In recent weeks, the country’s shrinkflation suspicions have touched everything from the cubed white radish accompanying Korean fried chicken to the cream density of a slice of strawberry cake.

Kim Young-hee, a 42-year-old homemaker, is glad about more government transparency. But the extra knowledge likely won’t change her habits, such as her occasional purchase of honey-butter almonds for her children.

“I’ll still buy the almonds,” Kim said, “but I don’t want to be tricked.”

The top 7 trends for 2024 borrowers

After a turbulent 12 months, 2024 is shaping up to be another challenging year for Aussies looking to obtain a mortgage and those already servicing one. Despite 12 rate rises, inflation remains stubborn and isn’t expected to fall to the RBA’s intended range of 2-3% until 2025. Parts of the housing market remain as robust as ever, with prices for standalone homes steadily increasing due to fierce competition and low stock levels.

This scarcity of housing combined with a construction industry in distress are major factors that are pushing more first home buyers into making the jump. However, tightened lending means these buyers are more restricted in their options than they were a few years ago.

With that in mind, here are some of the key trends to watch for in the mortgage industry in 2024:

First home buyers head for the fringes

Sydney’s property market continues to soar to new heights, with house and unit prices growing further out of reach for most first home buyers. Even with a healthy budget of $800,000 – the price cap for buyers taking advantage of the government’s first home loan deposit scheme – buyers are priced out of most of Sydney’s suburbs. Currently figures show the median price of a unit in Sydney is $817,059 while median house prices sit at an eye-watering $1,333,985. To stay within budget, first home buyers would need to search for properties on the city’s fringes on the west, south-west and as far as the Blue Mountains.

First homebuyers may have to consider properties on the city fringes. Image: Getty

Singles are being hit hard

Singles in Sydney are facing formidable challenges when it comes to entering the property market. For the most part, property prices in Sydney show no sign of falling which presents a major barrier for those on a single income. Limited housing affordability coupled with stringent lending criteria and the high cost of living further compounds the issue.

Many singles find themselves struggling to save for a substantial deposit, and even with the Federal government’s first home loan deposit scheme and the NSW government’s waiving of stamp duty among other concessions, buying property as a single is still difficult thanks to most properties exceeding the price cap for government assistance.

Female homeowners on the rise

The rise of female homeownership reflects the country’s rapidly changing economic and social dynamics. According to census data, 35% of all households in NSW are single households. Single parent households have reached unprecedented highs. Empowered by increased financial independence and the growing emphasis on gender equality, women are no longer solely reliant on men when it comes to property ownership. CoreLogic reports that women currently own 26.8% of Australian property, with 35.7% of apartments in the hands of female owners.

Divorce trends also play a role in this change as women increasingly have the means and motivation to buy out their male partner’s share in marital property settlements. Additionally, more women are pursuing homeownership independently, heralding a broader transformation of the property market as greater numbers of women aspire to invest in real estate.

Second marriages’ effect on home ownership

Second marriages often bring complex issues regarding home ownership, especially when safeguarding assets is a priority. For individuals entering into second marriages, protecting investments or previous family homes for their existing children is a major consideration. In these cases, it’s common for couples to keep ownership of such properties separate to ensure they are inherited by their respective children rather than being factored into the new marital union.

When it comes to purchasing new marital homes, couples often enter the property market with clear financial agreements in place. These agreements ensure that the financial contributions of both partners are explicitly recognised, adequately reflect the financial realities and priorities of their second union and ensure that the new home is equitably shared. In the context of mortgages and property ownership, the importance of effective financial planning and communication when blending households in second marriages can’t be understated.

Appetite for new builds remains dampened

The appetite for new builds in Australia continues to be subdued primarily due to a variety of factors that have left many prospective homeowners cautious about embarking on new construction projects. With construction companies folding left, right, and centre, potential homeowners are understandably apprehensive about building their new home.

With uncertain timelines, cost overruns due to the rising price of building materials, and labour shortages to contend with, many Aussies are instead opting for existing properties or considering alternative measures like renovating as a more secure and predictable pathway to homeownership.

Residential construction rates will remain low in 2024.

Cash is king

Whether they accumulated cash through savings during the pandemic or are sitting on extra dough through the sales of investment properties, an increasing number of Australians are poised to buy into the market in cash. Data shows that 1 in 4 property purchases in Australia’s three most populous states are cash purchases.

Undeterred by high interest rates, these buyers are a formidable force in the property market. Consisting of downsizing Boomers and international buyers, this cohort could potentially price out buyers who rely on mortgage financing, intensifying competition for the most desirable properties and possibly driving property prices even higher.

Mortgage sideliners

A growing group of individuals often referred to as “mortgage sideliners” are sitting in the wings for longer and longer as they await more favourable market conditions. For these potential homebuyers the increasing unaffordability of homes coupled with tighter lending requirements is a major barrier to entry. Mortgage sideliners hope for a market correction and for interest rates to fall before making their move. While they continue to monitor the market for the right opportunity, mortgage sideliners risk the current market spiralling even further out of reach as a low interest rate period is sure to spark more competition for desirable properties.

Two Red Shoes founder Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton

Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton is founder of mortgage broker, Two Red Shoes

Picasso, Monet, Warhol, Basquiat, and Richter Lead Artists Powering the US$1 Million-Plus Market

Pablo Picasso, Claude Monet, Andy Warhol, Jean-Michel Basquiat, and Gerhard Richter top a list of 50 artists leading the momentum for works valued at US$1 million or more, according to a report released Tuesday by Sotheby’s and ArtTactic, a London art market analysis firm.

The list ranked artists with an average of five artworks of US$1 million or more that sold each year between 2018 and 2022 at Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s—a methodology aimed at showing consistency. The analysis also considers sales value, liquidity, average prices, bidder confidence, and market momentum for each artist, and draws on Sotheby’s internal data on bidders and private sales.

Works by the top five artists alone made up more than a third of all US$1 million-plus sales at these top global auction houses in those years, the report said.

Shifts may be afoot, however. A “Power Rank” of top artists in the US$1 million-plus category, based on data from July 2022 to June 2023, “aims to identify artists whose markets show signs of growing momentum and interest,” the report said.

The top artists of this 12-month Power Rank are Jasper Johns, Lucian Freud, Paul Gaugin, Wassily Kandinksy, and Willem de Kooning.

“The Artists Who Power the $1 Million+ Market” is the second report by Sotheby’s and ArtTactic to explore this segment of the auction world, which proved to be “especially resilient” in 2021 and 2022, during the height of the pandemic and the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Despite representing a “small fraction” of works sold at auction, art that fetches at least US$1 million has “a tremendous impact on the market at lower levels,” the report said.

The analysis considers auction results at Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s in four categories: contemporary (including Post-War), impressionist and modern, Old Masters, and Chinese works of art. The list of top 50 artists from 2018 to 2022 who are powering the US$1 million-plus sector also includes insights from Sotheby’s private sales and its bidding activity data. Though the latter information is from Sotheby’s alone, similar activity is likely taking place at other auction houses, the report said.

“We all know that the art market has never been as transparent as the financial markets, so any information we can give our clients in terms of trends, analysis, and insight will allow them to make more thoughtful and educated decisions about their purchases, whether they see them as an investment or are pursuing a passion,” Mari-Claudia Jiménez, Sotheby’s head of global business development, said during a roundtable discussion with her colleagues and ArtTactic CEO Anders Petterson that’s included in the report.

The rare insight into private-sale data revealed that works by Alberto Giacometti, in addition to Monet, Basquiat, Picasso and Warhol, made up nearly 80% of Sotheby’s private transactions in the first half of this year. From 2019 to the first half of 2023, these same artists represented only 44.7% of private sales.

Sotheby’s internal bidding data—also rare to see—shows a rise in bidding for works with estimates between US$20 million and US$50 million in the first half of this year. “Despite market uncertainty,” this lofty segment has attracted 6.1% of bidders in the market for works valued at US$1 million or more, up from 3.8% in 2022, the report said.

Nearly 75% of Sotheby’s bidders raised their paddles for works priced between US$1 million and US$5 million from 2018 to 2022, though the percentage slipped to 72.4% in the first half of the year as 13.8% of collectors bid on works valued between US$5 million and US$10 million (up from 12.5% in 2022).

ArtTactic dug deeper into this internal bidding data to understand what category of works these collectors favoured, where they live, and how old they are. The data “provides collectors with additional context to understand some of the drivers behind emerging trends,” the report said.

Among its findings: Contemporary art was favoured by 56.1% of bidders; North Americans bid the most, representing nearly 36.4% of those vying for works of US$1 million or more; and Generation X is making their mark, accounting for the largest share of bidders in the market at 40.2%.

This generational shift is significant. Younger collectors are more comfortable buying across art categories, from Old Masters to Contemporary, for instance.

“The data in the report shows that our collectors, even the youngest ones, are interested in the entire span of history,” Brooke Lampley, Sotheby’s head of global fine art, said during the roundtable. “Education is such an important factor in the art market, and people are learning about art history in many different ways today.”

These younger collectors are interested in art in part because they are more exposed to it than previous generations, Lampley said. Private collectors today are exposed through the numerous art fairs they attend in addition to public auctions, which generations ago were attended more by dealers and others in the trade who then sold the works, she said.

“There has been a great effort to make people feel included in the art world and to make it accessible, both by galleries and auction houses,” Lampley said.

Notably, there are no women artists among the top five of the list of 50 powering the US$1 million-plus market, although four made the larger list. Joan Mitchell ranks No. 17, Yayoi Kusama ranks No. 19, Cecily Brown ranks No. 39, and Helen Frankenthaler ranks No. 47.

This Couple’s Milwaukee Home Lets Them Live Separately. They Couldn’t Be Happier.

Jason Kuwayama hardly ever goes to the front section of the new house he built in downtown Milwaukee’s Lower East Side. That is where his girlfriend, Leah Busse, plays “Call of Duty” in her designated game room—a space filled with her collectibles and art.

Instead, Kuwayama, an attorney, enters through the back of the house and spends most of his time in the main living area, an open, light-filled space with no clutter.

The two sections of the house are separated by a long hallway and an outdoor courtyard.

It is a similar scenario upstairs, in the primary suite: The two share a bedroom, but Kuwayama’s pristine bathroom is down a long hallway, and separated by the laundry room, from Busse’s, which is usually filled with clothes.

This arrangement suits them both well.

“My style is reductionist. I am a bit fastidious,” says Kuwayama, 43, who spent around $1.9 million building the house over 3½ years, finishing in 2021.

“I am a mess monster,” says Busse, 38, who works for a home-building company. “Jason wanted me to have my own space that he didn’t have to see.”

The separation between the front of the house and the back was part of a larger scheme for the house, designed by Brian Johnsen and Sebastian Schmaling of Milwaukee-based Johnsen Schmaling Architects to help create privacy in a demographically dense location.

Kuwayama bought the long, narrow—24-foot-wide—infill lot for $35,000 from Milwaukee’s Department of City Development. It sits tightly between two other houses and the setback is right up to the edge of the sidewalk, a requirement of the city aimed at preserving the neighbourhood’s character. Most of the other homes on the street are traditional, two-level structures with pitched roofs built as affordable housing a century ago—and most have the drapes drawn on their front windows to block prying eyes.

Jason Kuwayama and Leah Busse outside their home.

To allow the same privacy as those drapes but still let in light, Johnsen Schmaling came up with an exterior facade that acts as an abstract curtain, with slanted fins made from a hybrid of wood and aluminium. The tightly spaced vertical louvers are installed at gradually rotating angles with various degrees of openness, in part to imitate the movement of curtains and to respond to whether there’s glass or solid wall behind it.

“It creates a sense of mystery,” says Brian Johnsen, whose firm dubbed it Curtain House. The fins also act as a sun-shading device to protect the home from overheating in the summer.

A courtyard, bracketed between the front two-story section and the back two-story section, acts both as a buffer and a source of light, since it is open to the sky. Light comes into the house through the floor-to-ceiling glass windows that line the hallway along one side and the rooms (the kitchen one side, Busse’s game room on the other) on each end.

The main living area is open from the courtyard to the big windows and balcony that look over the river in back, also allowing in flood of light. The kitchen has a white island with an induction range and cabinets without hardware that open with a push, adding to the streamlined effect. The pantry is in back of the kitchen, also behind hardware-less doors.

The staircase, which leads both downstairs to the garage entry and a mud room and a cigar room and upstairs to the primary bedroom, has transparent glass panels supporting the tread on the ascending part, making the main floor feel wider and allowing a view of the river. The furniture is modern and sparse: a sea green Room & Board sofa, a glass Noguchi coffee table and a Barcelona chair.

Outside, the terrace is covered in fine grained rock and has a stairway with three platforms that leads down to the river. It has a pastoral feel, with trees and bushes fringing the property.

Kuwayama’s urban, modern, minimalist, open-plan, colour-free aesthetic is partly a revolt against his childhood home, a French chateau-style house in the Brookfield suburb of Milwaukee. His mother liked wallpaper and carpeting. His father leaned toward teak and Midcentury Modern art. The result was a compromise, with lots of small, separate rooms and bathrooms with their own colour (one avocado green, one brown and one pink).

Busse’s taste veers more toward traditional: an old manor with big wood banisters filled with knickknacks, she says. But she says she wasn’t interested in the design of the house because it was Kuwayama’s project from the start. Working for a home builder, she didn’t want to think about house plans when she was at home—and she wanted to move to a house with a big yard in the suburbs, she says.

Living in inner Milwaukee was also a form of rebellion for Kuwayama. He says when he was a teenager, growing up in the suburbs, it was implicit that he wasn’t to go downtown. After studying undergrad at Northwestern University, in Evanston, Ill., he attended Marquette University Law School, right in downtown Milwaukee, and stayed there after he graduated, eventually buying a condo along the north side of the river, about a half mile from his new house.

The couple met in 2014 on $2 taco night at a local restaurant called BelAir Cantina, when Kuwayama and his friend bought drinks and food for Busse and her friend. Busse promised to meet him at the same place the following week, but never showed. A few weeks later, she saw him at a Starbucks. (Locals call the city “Smallwaukee” because running into people you know is so common). Kuwayama retaliatorily ignored her, but she tracked him down and asked him out.

Busse, along with her dog and cat, moved into Kuwayama’s 1,150-square-foot condo in 2016. They liked living together but the space was too small, says Kuwayama. “You could never get away from anybody. You couldn’t separate at all,” he says. He saw the lot for sale and negotiated the price down from $140,000 to $35,000, in part because the land was so difficult to build on, he says. Kuwayama says the city was supportive of his project, allowing variances, because it wants the neighbourhood to remain single family homes.

Milwaukee has been going through a process of urban revitalisation for decades. Once a centre of manufacturing, attracting immigrants from across the world, Milwaukee’s population hit a peak of 741,324 in 1960, making it the 11th-largest city in the country and a centre of brewing beer. The city was immortalised in the TV show “Laverne & Shirley,” about roommates who worked at a brewery there.

Like many Midwestern cities, Milwaukee was hit hard by the recession in the 1970s and 1980s, while at the same time many of the more affluent residents moved to the suburbs. Over a 30 year period, from 1970 to 2000, due to the relocation of industry and competition from emerging markets overseas, manufacturing employment plummeted by more than 77,000 jobs, and accounting for nearly 95% of all job loss in Milwaukee since 2000, according to the City of Milwaukee. The latest census puts the city’s population at 577,000.

In the 1990s, the city implemented its Riverwalk initiative, a 3-mile pedestrian path that goes along the Milwaukee River, connecting downtown to the Third Ward. The city estimates property values around the path have grown by $1.5 billion since 1993 and moves are under way to expand it.

Architecturally, the city hasn’t evolved as quickly. Polish Flat and German Duplex structures—two-family homes with one unit stacked on top of the other—still dominate the street where Kuwayama built his house. Homes in the area have been increasing in value, up around 25% over the past year as of October 2023, according to Redfin. A few blocks away, a two-bedroom, one-bathroom, 1,160-square-foot, 19th century house that was remodelled sold for $254,000 in September 2023, while a two-bedroom, two-bathroom, 2,662-square-foot unit in a newly renovated condo building with a courtyard sold for $612,000 in July 2023.

Kuwayama says the reaction from people walking by his house (captured on security cameras) is mixed: Some love it, others are put off by the fins on the facade. One guy routinely takes dates through their back deck to their platforms overlooking the river. But he doesn’t mind. “I’m committed to the city of Milwaukee,” says Kuwayama. “Being accessible to the community is part of that.”

What’s everyone drinking? Australia’s most popular wines revealed

Australians love a good drop, especially at this time of year — and especially when it’s home grown. According to government statutory corporation, Wine Australia, there are more than 2150 wineries across 65 winegrowing regions around the country, representing about 6000 grapegrowers.

Just in time for the new year, wine storage provider, Wine Ark, has released its most collected wines of 2023. 

Shiraz was the most collected variety, followed by Chardonnay, but for single wines, Penfolds Grange topped the list. 

Keeper of Bottles at Wine Ark, John Cuff, said the Penfolds Grange was a hard wine to topple from the top spot.

“This is the second edition in a row that sees Penfolds Grange be the most collected wine in Australia, which is also one of the country’s most expensive wines, again emphasising the importance of this iconic wine to Australian wine collectors,” he said.

Penfolds Grange also represented reliability for collectors, he said, both in terms of drinkability — and investment.

“In relation to investment, I would say that historically Penfolds wines have held their value very well,” Mr Cuff said. “When they approach their drinking window, if you were to look to exit the wine, then yes, you could make some money on it.” 

While many of the wines in the top 10 such as Wynns Coonawarra Estate and the Leeuwin Estate Art Series would be familiar to wine lovers, Mr Cuff said lesser known cooler climate wines including Mount Mary, Tolpuddle and Crawford River were gaining ground. The Tolpuddle Vineyard Chardonnay gained 66 places to break into the top 50 while Crawford River Riesling rose 59 places.

John Cuff and the top 10 wines

Mr Cuff said while warmer climate wines would remain popular, especially among those starting their wine collecting journey, more people are beginning to appreciate the merits of cooler climate wines.  

“When people start their collecting journey traditionally they are either guided towards, or believe they should start with, the more popular regions such as the Barossa valley,” he said. “We all know that wines from the Barossa are brilliant and provide people with a glass of forward, flavoursome, rich wine that appeals to new wine buyers and collectors alike. 

“Wines from cooler climates have a lovely angular acid line, elegant tannins and, traditionally, have lower alcohol than warmer climate wines. They also match our current food styles and climate very well. 

“In saying that I do love a big steak and glass of heavy red!”

Given more than half of Australia’s wineries are based in South Australia, it’s perhaps no surprise to learn wines from the state are also the most popular with collectors. The Barossa Valley was the most popular by region, followed by the Hunter Valley in NSW.

Wine Ark Tasting Room. John Cuff recommends to buy what you enjoy drinking, even if it’s for investment.

For those looking to restock their cellar or start collecting in 2024, Mr Cuff’s advice is simple: collect what you enjoy drinking.

“There is no use buying Coonawarra Cabernet for an investment if you don’t like Cabernet,” he said. “Worse case, if you can’t sell it, you can drink it.”

His tips for good Australian tipples include Margaret River Cabernet and Chardonnay, Yarra Valley Cabernet, Tasmanian Chardonnay and Pinot Noir, single vineyard McLaren Vale Grenache and Shiraz from the “new” Barossa.

Here’s cheers.

A Flurry of Bidding Has Started on a Mint Condition Spider-Man Comic

An impressively well-preserved issue of The Amazing Spider-Man No. 1 from 1963 will be sold at auction early next year and bids have already reached six figures.

The inaugural issue, which cost 12 cents when it hit newsstands 60 years ago, is in such good condition that it’s being called the “world’s greatest copy” by Heritage Auctions, which is selling the collectible as part of its Comics & Comic Art SignatureAuction, running from Jan. 11-14.

Considered to be in “near mint/mint” condition, the issue has a grading of 9.8 out of 10 from Certified Guaranty Company (CGC), a third-party grading service for pop-culture collectibles.

The comic is from a collection that was amassed by an employee of a museum who stored the comics in tight packs on the museum’s premises. It’s “considered one of the best Silver Age collections ever discovered,” said Heritage Auctions, referring to the Silver Age of Comic Books, a period that spanned roughly from 1956 to 1970 and saw the creation of some of the most famous superheroes including the X-Men, the Hulk, Iron Man and, of course, Spider-Man.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the current bid for the comic, which marked Spider-Man’s first appearance in his eponymous title, stood at US$220,000.

In July, another first issue of The Amazing Spider-Man, in slightly worse condition, sold for US$520,380.

Also selling at the auction is “one of the world’s finest copies” of Superman No. 1 from 1939, according to Heritage. It’s one of only two in the world graded a 7.0 by CGC and considered to be in “fine/very fine” condition.

“This is the finest unrestored copy we’ve ever offered,” the auction house said online.

A Superman No. 1—with a CGC grading of 8.0—sold for US$5.3 million in January 2022, breaking the record for the most expensive comic ever sold.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the highest bid for the issue stands at US$460,000.

‘Thrifting’ Extends to Holiday Shopping Too

A new kind of present is gaining acceptance this holiday season. More consumers are picking secondhand items to gift each other, finding it to be an environmentally and budget-friendly option.

Thrift stores that sell used clothes and goods are springing up online and on street corners. Goodwill Industries International, the nonprofit behind the familiar chain of thrift stores, is ramping up its online efforts. Fashion brands are developing their own resale offering to keep up with clothing-reseller sites such as Depop and Poshmark. Roughly 17% of gifts this holiday season will be a resold item, according to software firm Salesforce.

“Consumers are choosing resale first because of the incredible value, the unique merchandise, and the incredible sustainability benefit,” said Matt Kaness, chief executive of GoodwillFinds, the nonprofit’s online e-commerce platform run in partnership with Salesforce.

Secondhand clothes, once seen as frumpy and embarrassing, are now keenly sought out by the fashion conscious. A popular vintage aesthetic dovetails with consumer calls for goods that do less harm to the world. About 85% of American shoppers have bought or sold preowned items over the past year, nearly a third for the first time, according to online marketplace OfferUp’s Recommerce report. In apparel alone, some 10% of the global market will be secondhand by next year.

GoodwillFinds is the only major nonprofit player in resale.

GoodwillFinds’ online platform allows a smarter operation than the traditional bricks-and-mortar store, said Kaness, formerly an executive with retailers including Walmart and Urban Outfitters. The platform uses artificial intelligence and large data sets to more accurately price and categorise items, creating a much more efficient system, Kaness said.

“In a store, it’s a human looking at the item. They have paper sticker tickets for the price and they have to process such a volume that it is somewhat random,” he said. In contrast, the company’s online system uses computer vision to take a picture, identify the item, create a listing and price it.

Moving online is the logical choice for secondhand sellers, said 25-year-old Brooke Bowlin, who runs lifestyle blog Nuance Required. “Secondhand stores just can’t sell enough,” said Bowlin, who started her own thrift store in Siloam Springs, Ark. “By moving online and expanding the audience, there is an opportunity to re-home more clothes,” she said.

Major fashion brands are also increasingly recognising that secondhand is as much a necessity as it is an opportunity. The fashion industry is responsible for up to 8% of global emissions, relying on resource-intensive raw materials and fast-moving trends that have contributed large amounts of waste. Around 11.3 million tons of textile waste go to landfills in the U.S. every year, according to environmental organisation Earth.Org.

Outdoor-clothing retailer Patagonia established its Worn Wear platform in 2017, one of the first resale channels by a major brand.

As much as adapting to trends, Patagonia Worn Wear aims to change consumer behaviour, said Asha Agrawal, managing director of the Patagonia venture fund that runs the platform.

“A lot of our messaging is around—‘you don’t need to buy something new,’” she said.

Worn Wear buys back used brand gear from consumers by paying higher prices than peer-to-peer apps or other marketplaces, Agrawal said. This strategy contributes to the bulk of the platform’s costs but also boosted its inventory fourfold this year alone, she said, adding Worn Wear has been profitable for the last two years.

Worn Wear is now integrated into the Patagonia brand. “You can now do your main shopping with Patagonia with our resale business in the U.S.,” she said. “That’s a huge evolution for us.”

Resale by brands and third parties is expected to outpace traditional thrift sales and donations in the U.S., rising to 60% of a $70 billion total by 2027 from 15% of the $20 billion secondhand market in 2017, according to online thrift store ThredUp’s recent resale report.

Other fashion players have their versions. Sweden’s Hennes & Mauritz launched H&M Pre-Loved in the U.S. this year, in partnership with ThredUp. Inditex-owned Zara has launched a preowned platform that offers repair services, customer-to-customer sales and donations of used garments in the U.K. and France, with plans for a U.S. rollout by 2025.

Resale remains an imperative for fashion brands as a way to control distribution and retain the trust of shoppers increasingly alert to the fate of their old clothes. However, scaling up resale generates a raft of operational challenges such as authentication, returns and ensuring that secondhand doesn’t look like an afterthought, said Anita Balchandani, fashion lead at consultant firm McKinsey & Co.

Unlike nonprofits, such as Goodwill, that get their inventory from donations and don’t have to be accountable to shareholders, retailers are struggling to make business sense of resales, Balchandani said.

“No one has proven the path to scaling this up profitably,” she said. “You almost have to create a whole new end-to-end supply chain…. The retailer who cracks that journey is going to make a real difference in this space.”

Lighting the way for sustainable design

David Trubridge is not one for standing still.

Whether it’s finding his own path in seldom explored parts of the world, or reviewing the production processes of his internationally recognised lighting range, the English-born designer is, it would seem, in a constant state of movement.

That’s not to say he is always working.

For Trubridge, who has made his life in Aotearoa New Zealand, taking time to explore areas as diverse as Antarctica and Iceland through to Patagonia and remote parts of Australia, is about giving himself time just to be.

In Australia recently to celebrate the 20th anniversary of his emblematic Coral light at the Sydney Mondoluce store, as well as their affiliates in Brisbane and Hobart, he made time to take a hike through Tasmania.

“I need that ability to recharge,” he says. “I love to get right off the trail because when you stick to the path, there’s a safety factor where you know you will always find your way back. 

“I want to find my own course, and see where it leads me. That’s my design philosophy too.”

Trubridge likes to take the road less travelled to mentall recharge.

Trubridge’s path to success is the stuff of legend. A self-taught designer and furniture maker, he studied naval design and had already enjoyed professional success on a small scale while living in the UK, initially creating pieces of furniture for his family and smaller clients before expanding to commissions for significant sites such the Victoria & Albert Museum and St Mary’s Cathedral In Edinburgh. 

In the 1980s, Trubridge and his wife Linda decided to sell their house, buy a yacht and set sail with their two children, arriving in Aotearoa New Zealand in 1985. By 1988, he had exhibited at the National Furniture Exhibition at Auckland Museum. 

As his opportunities expanded, the Trubridges sold their yacht in the early 1990s, using the money to fund building their own home — and a studio for David. Local interest in their house was such that Trubridge went on to design a number of homes in the area.

The Coral pendant propelled Trubridge’s work onto the international stage.

Designs for more furniture followed, notably, the Body Raft bench, which Trubridge took to the Milan Furniture Fair in 2000, where it was picked up by Italian design powerhouse Capellini.

Interested in the applications of plywood but, Trubridge turned his attention to lighting, resulting in the Coral design. Again, Trubridge made the trip to Milan in 2004, where it was warmly received — and an ‘overnight success’ story was born. 

”I was a guy in a shed in the backyard when Capellini picked up the Body Raft bench,” he says. “The market for handmade furniture in New Zealand was very small and I was looking for a bigger market.”

Twenty years on, the Coral design has been joined by a range of biophilic pendant lights, including the Toru, the Navicula and the Kōura. All made from bamboo plywood and shipped out to clients in kit form to reduce the amount of packaging and space required, the lights are designed to be both sculptural and throw shadow patterns. 

The Navicula pendant is inspired by microscopic diatoms, a type of plankton, that produce half the air we breathe.

While the lights are highly successful commercially, it’s evident that Trubridge continues to strive for improvement, particularly in terms of environmental impacts. 

“The design process does not really change much for me,” he says. “It is more important for me where we source the materials,” he says. “A lot of the embodied energy you can’t recycle. I would like to source a new material that is of our land, that is compostable and recycled. I’ve been looking at New Zealand flax which is very fibrous, like hemp.”

In the meantime, he has eliminated almost all plastics from the production process in recent years and he is exploring energy efficient lighting options beyond LEDs. For every Toru light sold, $50 goes to Sustainable Coastlines, a New Zealand charity committed to keeping the country’s beaches clean and plastic free.

While there is still much work to be done in terms of sustainability, Trubridge is hopeful.

“There is an awful long way to go but the mood is there, I think. There will be some big changes,” he says.

“We are trying to achieve sustainability and we are working towards it. We are always trying to improve and do better. How can we supply the things that people need that have the least impact?”

Only time — and more work — will tell. 

 

2023: A Year of Economic Turbulence — and Resilience

OPINION

As 2023 draws to a close, we are presented with an opportune moment to reflect on a year marked by economic resilience and a transformation of our economic environment that has not been seen for decades. We continue to push through the complex circumstances presented by the post-COVID recovery, remaining inflation, and the aggressive array of official interest rate increases during 2023.

Just as we see signs that the fight against global inflation may have finally resolved during an astounding year of economic resilience, there remains the threat of a new set of black swan events lurking in the shadows. We could very well see both global and local economic indicators deteriorating well into 2024. In addition, there remains the major threat of a disruption to global trade due to the Houthi militants’ interference in the Suez Canal.

Undoubtedly, the pace of the economic slowdown hastened in the September quarter with unemployment rising, and GDP only barely increasing by 0.2%, falling short of the anticipated 0.5%. If adjusted for immigration, Australia is officially in a per capita recession.

Australia’s record net migration of 2.5% for the 2023 calendar year undoubtedly enabled our economy to remain resilient, while also presenting itself as a potential medium to long-term nuisance. Migration helps ease some of the pressure we are currently experiencing in our tight labour market and leads to higher aggregate demand. However, it also places additional inflationary pressure on housing and rent.

Monetary Policy Outlook

The RBA’s approach to monetary policy has been a topic of much debate, with a very direct transmission channel to mortgage holders in Australia, where there is also higher household leverage. Higher rates end up being passed onto renters and mortgage holders, who comprise roughly 70% of the market. This illustrates the blunt aspect of monetary policy and how it disproportionately impacts certain groups, such as young, lower-income mortgagors trying to support their family. On the other hand, self-funded retirees are a group that is generally well-placed in a rising interest rate environment.

The RBA’s cautious stance, including the decision to keep the cash rate on hold in December, was a response to the evolving economic situation and clear signs of the economy cooling, including slower GDP growth, lower inflation, and higher unemployment.

Many economists now predict that in 2024, during the 4th quarter, interest rates will begin to be reduced. The question is what the neutral cash rate is estimated to be – somewhere between 2.75% and 3.75% – where the rate neither increases nor decreases inflationary pressure.

Labour Market and Unemployment

A significant aspect of 2023 was the labour market beginning to loosen as consumer spending softened. The unemployment rate in Australia rose to 3.9% in November, indicating a clear upward trend. This was coupled with an increased underemployment trend which is expected to continue throughout 2024.

While the RBA’s primary mandate is to manage inflation, it also has a key role in achieving full employment. There is a concept relating to a neutral unemployment rate, where any further increase has an inflationary impact on the economy. This is referred to as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and is often referred to in the RBA’s statements. They believe that Australia’s natural rate of unemployment should be 4.5%. Moving closer to this rate allows us to see improvements in productivity whilst not incurring significant inflationary pressure or economic weakening. Indeed, such low unemployment during the year has made our economy extraordinarily resilient in the face of adversity.

 

As the unemployment rate gets closer to the target of 4.5%, it often impels the RBA to cut the official cash rate.

Household and Household Income

The increase in average mortgage rates and the strain on household budgets were notable over the past year. Real household disposable income declined significantly. Interest paid on housing debt and income tax payable increased substantially, further stressing household finances. Despite these adversities, we have witnessed an extraordinary recovery in property prices during the year, which has been rather counterintuitive from a pure economic standpoint.

The rationale behind this can be explained by the decade-long chronic shortage of housing supply, combined with high net migration. This reinforces the unrelenting nature of housing demand in Australia. It is also a testament to how families will continue to make sacrifices to enable them to live in their property and avoid renting. As the housing crisis worsens, there is a realisation that residential property is not merely an asset class for investment, but also an essential piece of infrastructure for which all levels of government are responsible to deliver sufficient supply. However, we must remember: there is no immediate or quick fix.

Private Credit’s Role

Private credit, especially secured lending, becomes even more crucial in this uncertain and tumultuous environment. Traditional banks, facing an uncertain economic climate, become more cautious, paving the way for firms like Msquared Capital to provide essential credit to SMEs.

For us at Msquared Capital, our daily interactions with borrowers ensures we are always there to witness and respond to ever-changing conditions. We can see dislocations within the lending market and that is what enables us to find the best risk-rated returns for our investors.

Secured private credit is in high demand as investors navigate uncertain times and move away from riskier assets in which the downside risk is the absolute loss of capital following from heightened market volatility. Investors are seeking a safe haven that provides steady and reliable income, all while being secured by real assets – that is, property – with asset preservation qualities.

Many investors are only now beginning to discover private credit and its benefits. At Msquared Capital we see that there is still a lack of understanding and awareness on the difference between private credit providers and their offerings. Another crucial point to remember is that not all debt, nor fund managers, are the same or of equal quality.

Looking Ahead

2023 was a year of economic turbulence, characterised by slowing growth, a shifting labour market, and evolving monetary policy. For Msquared Capital, this environment necessitates adaptive strategies to navigate the changing landscape. As we look forward to 2024, we remain committed to providing innovative and secure credit solutions, while being mindful of the broader economic context and its implications for our clients and investments.

 

In our view the RBA will likely continue its inflation-fighting rhetoric, but the need for further rate rises seems to have dissipated given rising unemployment and falling GDP per capita. It is highly unlikely that there will be significant property appreciation in the short-term unless interest rates are reduced more aggressively than anticipated. In addition, some property segments, such as holiday houses, regional areas, and commercial office space, have more inherent downside risk.

Overall, Australia is once again the ‘lucky country’, having been much more resilient than our peers. This is a testament to our resource-rich land, high immigration, farming, stable government, and that we are distanced far enough from other countries so as to not be entangled in their geopolitical mess. This is what allows our lucky country to weather most economic shocks relativity unscathed.

Paul Miron is managing director of  Msquared Capital, a private credit provider with investment opportunities backed by quality property located primarily along Australia’s Eastern Seaboard; we ensure that all investment opportunities are based on risk-to-reward as our core offering, coupled with strong performance. Mortgage funds perform well during volatile times, and capital preservation is regular, with a reliable monthly income that gives our investors peace of mind.

The Australian economy could be set for a ‘soft landing’ in 2024

Borrowers could be in for cost of living relief in the new year  with the country’s biggest mortgage lender predicting a fall in the cash rate next year.

After a rise of more than 4 percent in 18 months, Commonwealth Bank chief economist Stephen Halmarick has predicted the Reserve Bank of Australia will drop the cash rate by 75 basis points, starting in September 2024 as inflation shows signs of moderation.

“Looking ahead, 2024 will have more than its fair share of risks and challenges, particularly geopolitical risks as well as the United States presidential election,” Mr Halmarick said. “Despite these obstacles, the Australian economy remains in relatively good shape.”

Noting that the RBA could well have negotiated the ‘narrow path’ it has attempted to navigate in 2023 between the desire to return the rate of inflation to a more manageable 2 to 3 percent range and the need for the economy to grow, Mr Halmarick said the outlook for 2024 was positive overall.

“The good news is that the pace of global inflation clearly begun decelerating around mid-2023 and we expect further deceleration in 2024, however markets will also focus on the balance between returning inflation to 2 per cent targets, without doing too much damage to labour markets,” he said. “CBA is forecasting the annual rate of inflation back at 3 percent at the end of 2024, well ahead of the RBA’s current forecast and closer to the Commonwealth government’s latest forecast.”

The CBA also predicted the unemployment rate would increase slightly, up to 4.5 percent by the end of next year, while net migration will slow, taking pressure off the housing market. Housing prices are forecast to rise by 5 percent in 2024.

Millionaires Are Moving to These Countries in Droves

The global migration of high-net-worth individuals has expanded this year, with Australia returning as the top migration destination, according to a report Tuesday from Henley & Partners.

Approximately 120,000 of the world’s millionaires moved to a new country in 2023, according to the consultancy firm, which specialises in residence and citizenship by investment. That’s up from 84,000 in 2022 and expected to rise to 128,000 in 2024, the data showed.

Safety, a lower cost of living, favourable tax regimes and a high quality of life are top reasons for high-net-worth individuals to migrate. The top five destinations for high-net-worth individual migration this year include Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, the U.S. and Switzerland, according to the report, which defines high-net-worth individuals as those with US$1 million or more of investable wealth.

Meanwhile, China, India, the U.K., Russia and Brazil lead the ranking of countries with the most people leaving for other shores.

Roughly 82,000 high-net-worth individuals moved to Australia between 2002 and 2022, with another 5,200 arriving this year, the data showed. The country was also in the top spot between 2015 and 2019.

“Australia consistently attracts sizeable numbers of millionaires every year, mainly from Asia and Africa, but more recently also from high-income countries such as the U.K.,” according to Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, which teamed up with Henley & Partners for the report.

The country’s beautiful beaches and wide-open spaces, a high quality of life and an advanced economy, as well as good healthcare and education opportunities, make it a top pick, Amoils added.

Migration to the U.A.E. in 2023 was one of the highest on record, with around 4,500 millionaires moving there.

“Pre-pandemic, the U.A.E. traditionally saw net inflows of around 1,000 high-net-worths per year,” the report said. “Most incoming millionaires in 2023 are expected to come from India, with large numbers also coming from the U.K., Russia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Hong Kong and China.”

Dubai has been a clear beneficiary of this trend, with home prices in the city rising nearly 20% annually in the third quarter, according to Knight Frank.

Singapore was the Asian city that saw the most millionaires move in last year, while the U.S. saw a steady stream of new residents migrate from Asia. Switzerland remains Europe’s top wealth hub and attracts new residents because of that, the report said.

This article originally appeared on Mansion Global.