Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.

Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.

Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales,  argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.

“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.

“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”

Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.

Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.

“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.

Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.

He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.

“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.

“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”

Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.

He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.

McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.

While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.

“People are looking for value for money,” she said.

She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.

“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.

The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.

“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.

He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.

While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.

“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.

Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.

Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.

McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.

Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.

“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.

“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”

As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.

When an estate has been carefully curated by its wealthy owners for more than a decade, the next custodian knows they’re in for a treat of a retreat.

Food-packaging entrepreneur Ted Nathan and his wife, Jenny, purchased the original 25ha Ravensdale Farm in Yarramalong Valley for $1.35 million 12 years ago according to title records.

Since then, the pair have reportedly invested more than $5.5 million to acquire several neighbouring parcels in order to create a contemporary compound now measuring more than 49ha.

Today’s Ravensdale Farm and Retreat, about 24kms from Wyong, is now a dual-estate 12-bedroom, 11-bathroom luxury landholding.

The property is expected to sell for about $30 million via an expressions of interest campaign with Cullen & Royle agents Deborah Cullen and Richard Royle.

Alongside the modern three-storey five-bedroom farmhouse, there is a long list of “must have” resort-style amenities and productive farmland primed to produce a passive income.

Framed by a 4m wraparound veranda, the sophisticated main residence has several outdoor spaces for homeowners and their guests to soak up the bucolic backdrop, lush paddocks and established gardens.

Inside, the homestead features multiple living spaces for grand scale entertaining inside and out, a library, a home office, private cinema, games room and accommodation designed for large families or a steady stream of weekend guests.

Custom made for hosting year round, the expansive estate also includes a sports bar with a commercial-grade kitchen, a championship size tennis court which can be transformed into an alfresco cinema when the mood strikes.

Additional spaces designed for fun include a sunken fire pit, a hidden garden with a European-inspired pétanque court, a pickle ball court and a private paddock dedicated to major events and functions.

There is also a separate second residence, Ravensdale Retreat, devoted to guest stays or potential short-term accommodation.

The bonus residence is set up to provide a fully self-contained experience outside of the main home when needed. It has a choice of bedrooms, a spacious living area, an outdoor pavilion, pizza deck, and its own pool.

Beyond its weekender credentials, Ravensdale Farm lives up to its name. A working farm, the estate has cattle infrastructure, fertile pastures featuring Kikuyu and Rhodes grasses complemented by high end irrigation and water systems, as well as land management systems designed for efficiency and long-term resilience.

The land can comfortably support cattle and horses – currently home to approximately 40 cows and calves, plus horses – and has productive fruit orchards, vegetable gardens, a chicken coop and a restored century-old barn.

Surrounded by the rolling green hills of the Yarramalong Valley, Ravensdale Farm and Retreat is approximately a 25-minute drive from Wyong and around 90 minutes from Sydney with coastal hotspots like Terrigal and The Entrance are within easy reach.

Ravensdale Farm and Retreat is on the market with a price guide of $30m via an expressions of interest campaign with Cullen & Royle.

The Centennial Collection, the new apartment development on the edge of Centennial Park in Bondi Junction, continues to break local residential property records.

A local Eastern suburbs buyer has splashed $11 million on a three-bedroom, sub-penthouse on level 10 of the development, topping the previous record within the same development.

At 266 sqm, including internal and external space, the north-facing residence achieved more than $55,000 per sqm, making it one of the most expensive apartment transactions ever recorded in Sydney’s eastern suburbs outside the harbourfront enclaves of Double Bay and Darling Point.

The buyer had originally purchased a three-bedroom apartment in The Centennial Collection in 2025 for $6.5 million before deciding to secure the larger half-floor sub-penthouse.

Ray White Projects Director of Sales Marcello Bo, who is managing sales for the project, said the transaction highlighted the continued strength of demand for premium apartments in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.

“This sale is a clear indication of buoyancy in the upper end of the market and reinforces the strong demand and appetite for primely located, larger-sized apartments with all the luxurious inclusions you would expect with a development of this calibre,” Bo said.

“It also demonstrates that superbly-designed, lifestyle-driven residences in tightly held locations continue to outperform, particularly when they deliver scale, privacy, rarity and long-term liveability that aligns with how buyers want to live today.”

The Centennial Collection occupies a prominent gateway site overlooking Centennial Park at the junction of Bondi Junction, Woollahra and Paddington. Following recent State Significant Development approval, the project now comprises 79 apartments across two adjoining towers rising 13 and 16 storeys.

The development has been designed to target owner-occupiers seeking larger-format apartments, with residences featuring inclusions more commonly associated with standalone homes, including private rooftop pools, bedroom fireplaces, wet bars, butler’s pantries and full-sized wine fridges.

The record-setting residence was originally designed as one of the project’s penthouses before the approval process allowed additional levels to be added to the scheme.

Positioned on Level 10, the apartment occupies half a floor and has no common walls. It offers 270-degree views spanning Sydney Harbour, the Harbour Bridge, Opera House, Centennial Park and both the northern and southern headlands.

The purchaser said that proximity to Centennial Park, transport connectivity, and the surrounding lifestyle amenities ultimately drove his decision.

“I’m constantly looking at developments everywhere in the east, from Darling Point to Rushcutters Bay, Double Bay, all the beaches, Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama, Woollahra. I wanted something new,” he said.

“Everywhere you go, there’s a trade-off. It might have a great floor plan, but it doesn’t have a view. Working in the city, your daily commute impacts everything, so Bondi Junction train station was a huge factor in my decision.”

The buyer, an avid cyclist who rides regularly in Centennial Park, said his view of the location changed significantly as he spent more time assessing the eastern suburbs market.

“At first, I thought, who would want to live there? It’s one of the busiest intersections in the eastern suburbs. But when you peel it all back, it’s one of the best locations in Sydney. You’re close to everything, you can walk to everything, the amenity is incredible, and the views are amazing.”

Bondi Junction is slated to look materially different in the coming decades, with a draft 100-page masterplan proposing a regeneration of the suburb which would include thousands more apartments as well as a revitalised commercial, retail, and dining precinct.

For months, I have been one of the few commentators openly stating what the data was already showing: property prices had begun to fall.

The latest figures confirm it. Cotality’s June 1 Home Value Index showed Sydney values down 0.9 per cent in May and Melbourne down 0.8 per cent. ANZ has cut its national capital city forecast to 2.8 per cent growth this year, down from 4.8 per cent in April. CBA has also downgraded its outlook.

So the Federal Budget arrived at the worst possible time, with the wrong prescription, to treat a problem it fundamentally misunderstands.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has suggested that making it easier for first-home buyers to get a fair crack at auctions is a good thing. The reality is more complicated.

Driving property prices down does not simply hand a discount to first-home buyers. It affects the 1.4 million Australians employed by the property sector, the 67 per cent of household wealth tied to housing, and the state government revenues that fund schools, hospitals and roads.

The government had a choice: tackle supply constraints, link migration growth to housing completions and reduce spending, or increase taxes on property investors. It chose the latter.

Property is an economic pillar

Property is not simply another investment class. It contributes about 10.6 per cent of GDP directly, up to 15 per cent when flow-on effects are included, and employs more than 1.4 million Australians. It also generates more tax revenue than mining and underpins consumer confidence through the wealth effect.

Against that backdrop, the Budget removed negative gearing from established residential properties purchased after Budget night and replaced the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with cost-base indexation and a 30 per cent minimum tax from July 1, 2027.

The government calls this fairness. I call it a misdiagnosis.

The grandfathering trap

The policy is also internally contradictory.

Properties purchased before Budget night are grandfathered, allowing existing investors to retain full negative gearing and capital gains tax benefits until they sell. The logical response is simple: hold.

That means fewer properties coming onto the market, fewer rental listings and reduced transaction volumes.

The result is likely to be higher rents, reduced stamp duty revenue and further inflationary pressure at a time when the Reserve Bank remains focused on bringing inflation under control.

The government is attempting to fight inflation with one hand while fuelling it with the other.

Who really owns investment properties?

What is often lost in this debate is who Australia’s property investors actually are.

According to ATO data, 71 per cent of investors own just one investment property. They are not wealthy property moguls.

They are teachers, nurses, police officers and small business owners who have purchased an investment property as part of their retirement strategy.

For many Australians, property remains the most tangible and trusted pathway to building long-term wealth.

Removing the incentives that supported that investment does not hurt a billionaire developer. It hurts ordinary Australians trying to secure their financial future.

Investors aren’t the affordability problem

It is true that housing affordability has deteriorated significantly over the past two decades. However, negative gearing is not the primary cause.

Research by economists Ross Kendall and Peter Tulip found planning and zoning restrictions significantly increase housing costs.

Their work showed zoning lifted detached house prices well above marginal construction costs in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

Low interest rates, strong population growth, chronic under-supply and restricted access to development-ready land have all played a much larger role in pushing prices higher.

Punishing private investors does nothing to address these structural issues.

The Build-to-Rent advantage

At the same time the government is reducing incentives for Australian investors, it has created a more attractive tax environment for foreign institutional capital through Build-to-Rent projects.

Under current arrangements, foreign institutional investors can access a 15 per cent withholding tax rate through Managed Investment Trusts, accelerated depreciation benefits and exemptions from the new negative gearing restrictions.

State governments have added further concessions, including land tax reductions and exemptions from foreign investor surcharges.

Australian mum-and-dad investors receive none of these advantages.

The cumulative effect is striking. Foreign institutions can access a range of tax benefits unavailable to Australian private investors, while local investors lose concessions they have relied upon for decades.

This is not solving the housing crisis. It risks transferring ownership of Australia’s rental housing stock from local investors to offshore institutions.

Why state governments should worry

There are already signs these changes are affecting the credit cycle.

Major banks are removing negative gearing benefits from serviceability calculations for investment loans.

As market conditions soften, lenders become more cautious and investors find it harder to secure finance.

That matters because property transactions are a major source of state government revenue.

In NSW alone, transfer duty generates more than $12 billion annually. If transaction volumes fall significantly, the impact on state budgets will be substantial.

The consequences extend beyond stamp duty to GST collections, payroll tax receipts and land tax revenue.

The 95 per cent loan trap

There is another aspect of the Budget that concerns me.

The government has expanded first-home buyer deposit guarantee schemes, allowing eligible purchasers to buy with a five per cent deposit backed by the Commonwealth.

The intention is admirable. The timing may not be.

If prices in Sydney and Melbourne fall further, buyers entering the market with 95 per cent loan-to-value mortgages could quickly find themselves in negative equity.

They become trapped. They cannot sell without crystallising a loss, while the taxpayer guarantees the loan and the bank remains protected.

That is not wealth creation. It is a debt obligation.

After three decades working with debt and investment, I would never encourage my own children to borrow at a 95 per cent loan-to-value ratio.

A policy built on politics

The government had an opportunity to address the housing crisis by encouraging supply, reforming planning systems and reducing development costs.

Instead, it chose Robin Hood politics.

The optics may be appealing, but the economics are not.

Australians may ultimately pay the price through higher rents, weaker investment and a future in which an increasing share of the nation’s housing stock is owned by offshore institutions rather than local investors.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.