Revealed: Where property values will grow the most in 2026
Australia’s housing market is expected to keep rising in 2026, but new research shows growth will increasingly depend on postcode, not postcode averages.
3 min
Confidence across Australia’s housing market remains firm heading into 2026, but momentum is expected to diverge sharply by state as affordability ceilings, interest rate uncertainty and local supply constraints reshape conditions, according to new research from Cotality and a broad range of market forecasters.
Findings from Cotality’s Decoding 2026 report, based on responses from real estate agents and finance professionals nationwide, show 87% of respondents expect dwelling values to rise over the year ahead, while just 3.5% anticipate prices will fall.
Almost half forecast price growth of more than 5%, highlighting ongoing optimism following widespread gains through 2025.
That outlook broadly aligns with forecasts from major banks and property research groups, including ANZ, Domain, PropTrack and SQM Research, with the majority of forecasters expecting national home values to rise again in 2026, albeit at a more moderate and uneven pace than in recent years.
Cotality’s December Home Value Index recorded price growth across every capital city and regional market in 2025, with national dwelling values rising 8.6%, adding around $71,400 to the median home value.
Cotality Australia Research Director Tim Lawless said conditions softened toward the end of the year as affordability pressures intensified and expectations around interest rates shifted.
“Housing conditions were strong for most of 2025, which explains the broadly positive sentiment,” Lawless said.
“However, national averages mask increasingly wide variation at the local level, and it’s those differences that are becoming more important as affordability constraints and policy settings diverge.”
Smaller States tipped to outperform
Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia continue to stand out as the most positively viewed markets entering 2026, both among industry respondents and external forecasters.
Cotality survey results show 89% of Queensland respondents expect prices to rise, with more than half anticipating growth above 5%.
That optimism is echoed by forecasts from ANZ, Domain and SQM, which expect Queensland to remain one of the stronger-performing markets nationally, supported by population growth, tight rental conditions and ongoing housing shortages.
Western Australia also features prominently in forecasts, with SQM Research projecting some of the strongest percentage gains nationally, while Domain and ANZ expect Perth prices to continue rising, albeit at a steadier pace than in 2025.
Broad-based demand across price points and relatively affordable entry levels are expected to support further growth.
South Australia’s outlook remains underpinned by relative affordability and limited new supply. Most major forecasters expect Adelaide dwelling values to rise again in 2026, though generally at a more moderate pace compared with Queensland and Western Australia.
“Strong internal migration, tight rental markets and a persistent undersupply of housing continue to support these markets,” Lawless said.
“Those fundamentals largely remain in place, which helps explain why both agents and forecasters remain optimistic about price growth across much of the country outside the east coast’s largest cities.”
NSW and Victoria face tighter constraints
While sentiment in New South Wales remains positive, expectations are increasingly conditional. High dwelling values, stretched borrowing capacity and sensitivity to interest rate movements are expected to limit the pace of growth.
ANZ, Domain and PropTrack all forecast continued price increases in Sydney in 2026, though at a more moderate pace than recent years, reflecting affordability ceilings and rising listings.
Victoria continues to lag national performance after recording the weakest growth among the states in 2025. Although most forecasters still expect Melbourne home values to rise in 2026, expectations remain subdued relative to other capitals.
Higher property taxes, reduced investor participation and softer population growth continue to weigh on confidence, despite first home buyers accounting for a larger share of lending.
“Victoria stands out for the scale of investor selling, policy settings and higher holding costs, all of which have dampened activity,” Lawless said.
“While prices are still expected to trend higher, most forecasters see Victoria underperforming the national average again in 2026.”
First home buyer support lifts activity, but affordability bites
More than 75% of real estate agents reported increased activity following the expansion of the First Home Guarantee, with competition intensifying around scheme price thresholds.
Federal Treasury data shows more than 21,000 first home buyers have accessed the expanded 5% deposit scheme since October*.
However, affordability remains a key constraint, with fewer than half of Australian suburbs now priced below First Home Guarantee caps, a sharp decline from a year earlier.
Confidence holds, but risks are building
While expectations for price growth remain broadly positive across most forecasts, confidence is becoming more conditional as affordability ceilings, interest rate uncertainty and uneven regional dynamics shape the outlook.
“The market enters 2026 from a position of strength, and the majority of forecasters still expect dwelling values to rise,” Lawless said.
“However, affordability challenges, interest rate uncertainty and policy settings are likely to cap the pace of growth, particularly in higher-priced markets.
“With no material supply response expected in 2026, tight housing conditions should help offset downside risks, but outcomes will increasingly depend on local market dynamics rather than national trends.”
For Central Element, the start of work at Pearl represents another step in the company’s growing eastern suburbs pipeline.
All three vehicles will form part of a broader charitable initiative benefiting Big Brothers Big Sisters of America, the American Red Cross and Starlight Children’s Foundation
Jack Freeman believes the most compelling interiors are not decorated, but collected. The FREEMAN & CO founder creates layered, personal spaces shaped by art, travel and craftsmanship.
4 min
For Jack Freeman, a compelling interior should not look as though it was completed in a single shopping trip.
The founder and designer behind FREEMAN & CO prefers rooms that develop through art, travel, commissioned furniture and objects collected over time. It is an approach that treats the home less as a decorative project and more as an evolving portrait of its owner.
“I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating,” Freeman says.
That distinction underpins the international practice he has built across private residences, hotels, property developments, yachts and private aviation. Its projects stretch from Point Piper, Vaucluse, Circular Quay and Toorak to Mayfair, Bel Air and the Caribbean.
Although the locations and architecture vary considerably, the work is connected by a restrained design language. Natural stone, warm timbers and sculptural furniture establish the foundation, while art, bespoke lighting and individual objects give each interior its identity.
The objective is not to overwhelm a room with obvious symbols of expense. It is to create an environment that feels calm, layered and particular to the people living within it.
“The greatest luxury isn’t about excess,” Freeman says. “It’s about creating an oasis where you come home and feel immediately grounded — effortlessly chic and deeply personal.”
Collecting instead of decorating
Decorating can imply the completion of a room: selecting the required furniture, filling the available walls and producing a coherent finished image.
Collecting is less conclusive.
A collected interior has room to change as its owners travel, discover artists, inherit pieces or reassess how they use their home. Its character comes from the relationship between objects rather than adherence to a single brand or season.
That does not mean placing unrelated pieces together without discipline. The designer must understand scale, proportion, material and provenance well enough to create a dialogue between them.
A contemporary artwork might sit beside a historic piece of furniture. A precisely detailed new interior may be interrupted by an irregular object made by hand. Smooth stone can be balanced by timber, textiles or a patinated metal surface that becomes richer with age.
The tension between those elements is part of the appeal.
For Freeman, art is not an accessory to be added once the furniture plan is complete. It forms part of the architecture and atmosphere of the room from the beginning.
Lighting is considered in the same way. Beyond its practical purpose, a bespoke fitting can operate as a suspended sculpture, changing both the room’s composition and the way its materials are experienced after dark.
A design perspective shaped by travel
International travel plays a significant role in Freeman’s creative process.
Design fairs such as PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile in Milan provide opportunities to encounter emerging designers, established galleries, new materials and collectible furniture away from the filter of social media.
More spontaneous discoveries can prove equally important.
“Sometimes it’s the simple things,” Freeman says. “That piece found on a shopping trip with a client in Paris, stumbling across an artisan’s workshop, or a special memory that forms the narrative of the story.”
Objects selected during travel bring more than visual interest into a home. They carry an association with a place, maker or experience, giving the client a connection that cannot be reproduced by ordering an entire interior from a catalogue.
Freeman’s influences are international, but his projects are not conceived as replicas of Parisian, Milanese or Californian style. Each commission responds to its architecture, setting, natural light and the daily lives of its occupants.
A waterfront Sydney residence demands a different treatment from a Mayfair townhouse. A Caribbean estate shaped by brutalist architecture and reflecting pools calls for another response again.
The designer’s role is to absorb those references without allowing them to overwhelm the individual qualities of the property.
Designing the complete experience
FREEMAN & CO extends beyond conventional interior decoration.
The practice’s stated services include interior design and architecture, project management, property acquisition, development advice, concept design, documentation, furniture and lighting design, procurement and art curation.
That breadth allows the team to become involved before a room’s dimensions and finishes are fixed.
Early participation can be important at the top end of the residential market, where architecture, landscape, interiors, technology and art must operate as one environment. Decisions about ceiling heights, wall dimensions, sightlines and lighting can directly affect where art is installed or how custom furniture is proportioned.
The practice can then carry those decisions through to procurement and final installation, maintaining the design narrative as a project moves between architects, builders, specialist craftspeople, dealers and suppliers.
Its residential portfolio includes a South Coast retreat conceived as an escape from urban life, a Caribbean estate with reflecting pools, an East Coast-inspired Palm Beach residence and a Mayfair townhouse organised around an expressive drawing room.
The studio also says it has worked on highly tailored Sydney residences with values exceeding $100 million, although the private nature of such commissions means individual addresses and clients are not always disclosed.
A home that can keep changing
The risk in creating a perfectly resolved interior is that it can become too static — a composition that looks exceptional in photographs but leaves little room for life.
Freeman sees the home as something that should evolve with its owners.
“I love the evolution of design,” he says. “We are talking about people’s lives, and as they evolve, so too should their private sanctuaries.”
That evolution might involve adding art, reupholstering a significant piece, adapting rooms as a family changes or making space for objects gathered through future travels.
The original design needs to be strong enough to accommodate those layers.
This may be the clearest expression of Freeman’s approach to luxury. It is not simply access to rare stone, collectible furniture or commissioned craftsmanship. It is the creation of a personal environment whose meaning deepens rather than diminishes with time.
Fact box
- Designer: Jack Freeman
- Role: Founder and managing director
- Practice: FREEMAN & CO
- Base: Australia, with international projects
- Project locations named by the practice: Point Piper, Vaucluse, Circular Quay, Toorak, Palm Beach, the NSW South Coast, Mayfair, Bel Air and the Caribbean
- Sectors: Private residences, hotels, residential developments, private aviation and superyachts
- Services: Interior design and architecture, property development, project management, property acquisition, documentation, furniture and lighting design, FF&E procurement, interior dressing and art curation
- Design philosophy: Collected, personal interiors shaped by art, craftsmanship, travel and enduring materials
- Website: free-man.co
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