Revealed: Where property values will grow the most in 2026
Australia’s housing market is expected to keep rising in 2026, but new research shows growth will increasingly depend on postcode, not postcode averages.
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Confidence across Australia’s housing market remains firm heading into 2026, but momentum is expected to diverge sharply by state as affordability ceilings, interest rate uncertainty and local supply constraints reshape conditions, according to new research from Cotality and a broad range of market forecasters.
Findings from Cotality’s Decoding 2026 report, based on responses from real estate agents and finance professionals nationwide, show 87% of respondents expect dwelling values to rise over the year ahead, while just 3.5% anticipate prices will fall.
Almost half forecast price growth of more than 5%, highlighting ongoing optimism following widespread gains through 2025.
That outlook broadly aligns with forecasts from major banks and property research groups, including ANZ, Domain, PropTrack and SQM Research, with the majority of forecasters expecting national home values to rise again in 2026, albeit at a more moderate and uneven pace than in recent years.
Cotality’s December Home Value Index recorded price growth across every capital city and regional market in 2025, with national dwelling values rising 8.6%, adding around $71,400 to the median home value.
Cotality Australia Research Director Tim Lawless said conditions softened toward the end of the year as affordability pressures intensified and expectations around interest rates shifted.
“Housing conditions were strong for most of 2025, which explains the broadly positive sentiment,” Lawless said.
“However, national averages mask increasingly wide variation at the local level, and it’s those differences that are becoming more important as affordability constraints and policy settings diverge.”
Smaller States tipped to outperform
Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia continue to stand out as the most positively viewed markets entering 2026, both among industry respondents and external forecasters.
Cotality survey results show 89% of Queensland respondents expect prices to rise, with more than half anticipating growth above 5%.
That optimism is echoed by forecasts from ANZ, Domain and SQM, which expect Queensland to remain one of the stronger-performing markets nationally, supported by population growth, tight rental conditions and ongoing housing shortages.
Western Australia also features prominently in forecasts, with SQM Research projecting some of the strongest percentage gains nationally, while Domain and ANZ expect Perth prices to continue rising, albeit at a steadier pace than in 2025.
Broad-based demand across price points and relatively affordable entry levels are expected to support further growth.
South Australia’s outlook remains underpinned by relative affordability and limited new supply. Most major forecasters expect Adelaide dwelling values to rise again in 2026, though generally at a more moderate pace compared with Queensland and Western Australia.
“Strong internal migration, tight rental markets and a persistent undersupply of housing continue to support these markets,” Lawless said.
“Those fundamentals largely remain in place, which helps explain why both agents and forecasters remain optimistic about price growth across much of the country outside the east coast’s largest cities.”
NSW and Victoria face tighter constraints
While sentiment in New South Wales remains positive, expectations are increasingly conditional. High dwelling values, stretched borrowing capacity and sensitivity to interest rate movements are expected to limit the pace of growth.
ANZ, Domain and PropTrack all forecast continued price increases in Sydney in 2026, though at a more moderate pace than recent years, reflecting affordability ceilings and rising listings.
Victoria continues to lag national performance after recording the weakest growth among the states in 2025. Although most forecasters still expect Melbourne home values to rise in 2026, expectations remain subdued relative to other capitals.
Higher property taxes, reduced investor participation and softer population growth continue to weigh on confidence, despite first home buyers accounting for a larger share of lending.
“Victoria stands out for the scale of investor selling, policy settings and higher holding costs, all of which have dampened activity,” Lawless said.
“While prices are still expected to trend higher, most forecasters see Victoria underperforming the national average again in 2026.”
First home buyer support lifts activity, but affordability bites
More than 75% of real estate agents reported increased activity following the expansion of the First Home Guarantee, with competition intensifying around scheme price thresholds.
Federal Treasury data shows more than 21,000 first home buyers have accessed the expanded 5% deposit scheme since October*.
However, affordability remains a key constraint, with fewer than half of Australian suburbs now priced below First Home Guarantee caps, a sharp decline from a year earlier.
Confidence holds, but risks are building
While expectations for price growth remain broadly positive across most forecasts, confidence is becoming more conditional as affordability ceilings, interest rate uncertainty and uneven regional dynamics shape the outlook.
“The market enters 2026 from a position of strength, and the majority of forecasters still expect dwelling values to rise,” Lawless said.
“However, affordability challenges, interest rate uncertainty and policy settings are likely to cap the pace of growth, particularly in higher-priced markets.
“With no material supply response expected in 2026, tight housing conditions should help offset downside risks, but outcomes will increasingly depend on local market dynamics rather than national trends.”
BNW Developments has established a Sydney presence, joining Arada and Sobha Realty among the growing number of UAE developers pursuing Australian buyers and development opportunities.
Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
رغم التوترات الإقليمية، يواصل سوق العقارات الفاخرة في الإمارات جذب المشاريع الجديدة، مع تصدر الواجهات البحرية المشهد. وتستعد دبي وأبوظبي ورأس الخيمة لإطلاق مجموعة من المشاريع السكنية الفاخرة، بينها مساكن تحمل علامات فندقية عالمية مثل Ritz-Carlton وJanu.
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Long-term optimism remains strong in the United Arab Emirates, even as the war in neighboring Iran hinders home sales and demand for now.
While there have certainly been residential and commercial real estate projects across the U.A.E. that have been paused or delayed due to the turmoil experienced across the region, by and large, new developments continue to be launched.
That’s the case in the luxury residences sector in particular, where a string of starry, big-name projects are putting homes on the market before the close of the year. One trend is that the islands of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the U.A.E. at large that are taking their turn in the spotlight, as waterfront living continues to be in demand and come at a premium.
For would-be buyers looking for resort-style homes along the shores, there’s an array of upcoming projects to get excited about. Right at the top of the list are hotel branded residences from the likes of Ritz-Carlton and Janu, the sister brand of powerhouse Aman, among five swanky projects selling this season.
The Ritz-Carlton Residences Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi
Luxury hotel branded residences are thriving, and the exciting Ritz-Carlton Residences Al Maryah Island development is a great example of why. Residents can expect hotel-style amenities and services from a locale within Abu Dhabi’s thriving waterfront district, with the creature comforts of home built into it.
This project was unveiled at Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2025 and promises to offer The Ritz-Carlton brand’s signature, timeless style and unwavering attention to detail. All units will feature floor-to-ceiling windows with enviable views, while residents will be able to take advantage of a resort-grade, infinity waterfront pool, immersive spa and wellness facilities, and a waterfront promenade with curated outdoor spaces as well as high-end retail and dining venues.
Sales launch in October.
Number of Units: 172
Price Range: Starting at $1.2 million
Developer/Architect: Killa Design and Tara Bernerd, with SAAS Properties.
Home Sizes: One- to four-bedroom residences ranging from 882 square feet to 4,962 square feet, and a five-bedroom, 13,713-square-foot penthouse.
Amenities: Wellness facilities including premium fitness center, massage room, meditation and recovery rooms, cold plunge and indoor pool. There’s also a rooftop pool, co-working lounge, executive golf lounge, and a games room and children play area.
Janu Al Marjan Island, Ras Al Khaimah
Just 50 minutes from Dubai International Airport, Janu Al Marjan Island aims to both feel a world apart from the city, while also offering supreme ease of access. The property has its own private stretch of beach and marina, ideal for superyacht mooring and serving as the scene of a beach club.
The Janu Residences will be positioned next to the Janu hotel, with residents able to take advantage of its many social and wellness spaces, in addition to resident’s-only amenities and services. Meanwhile, the adjacent Wynn Al Marjan Island, the U.A.E.’s first integrated resort, is in direct proximity as well.
Social life by the sea, with discretion and wellness on tap, not to mention a chance to get in early on burgeoning Ras Al Khaimah.
Sales launch in late October.
Number of Units: 73
Price Range: Starting at $2.3 million
Developer/Architect: Jointly developed by Marjan and Wynn Resorts, with architecture by SCDA Architects.
Home Sizes: One- to five-bedroom residences ranging from 2,117 square feet to 18,955 square feet, as well as five Marina Villas and a residential tower penthouse.
Amenities: An active lifestyle comes to the forefront with the Janu Spa and Wellness center and a padel court. Six dining venues and a signature beach club are key features for residents who want it all, right on-site.
Sei Saadiyat, Saadiyat Cultural District, Abu Dhabi
Located in the Saadiyat Cultural District, Sei Saadiyat combines its historic locale with a unique spin rooted in the Japanese concept of stillness and calm, or “Sei.” That foundational principle is what this community will be based on, with a mission to foster wellness and relaxation in all forms, including fitness and social connection.
A total of 778 homes will be spread across six Jacobs-designed buildings. Aldar is also introducing a first in their residential portfolio in the form of their two-bedroom Kanso Lofts at Sei Saadiyat, featuring double-height, open-plan living in loft style spaces including an elevated bedroom.
Phase one sales launched in September.
Number of Units: 778 total (265 involved in this phase one launch)
Price Range: Starting at $800,000
Developer/Architect: Aldar with architecture by Jacobs and interiors by Kettle Collective.
Home Sizes: Residences range from 753 square feet to 2,238 square feet, in a range of floor plans including one- and two-bedroom apartments, three-bedroom Kanso Residences and two-bedroom Kanso lofts.
Amenities: Amenities tie into the brand’s ethos of stillness and calm: expect a Zen garden with serenity pool and outdoor yoga decks, along with numerous indoor and outdoor fitness areas, and hot-and cold-pool experiences.
Amali Canal Residences
Amali Canal Residences is located on Dubai Canal in Al Wasl. The community is suspended above the canal, and brings the presence of water even closer to home with a number of features including private plunge pools in every residence, and a swim-through, indoor-outdoor pool with a signature waterfall facade that would make the posh resorts of the Swiss Alps blush.
There will be no shortage of on-site entertainment and diversions, whether in the form of a private cinema and resident bowling alley, cigar lounge and library, padel and sports courts, a panoramic fitness center. Then there’s The Retreat, a wellness center incorporating spa, sauna, steam, onsen baths, hydrotherapy, and yoga and pilates studios. When it’s time for a bit of work in between the diversions, residents can use an executive boardroom, private studies and co-working lounges.
Sales launch in October.
Number of Units: 211
Price Range: Two bedrooms starting at $3.9 million; three bedrooms starting at $5.4 million; four bedrooms starting at $7.4 million; penthouse pricing on request.
Developer/Architect: Amali Properties in collaboration with AHS Properties, with architecture by Killa Design and interior design by HBA Residential.
Home Sizes: Two- to four-bedroom apartments ranging from 2,880 square feet to 7,800 square feet, in addition to four- and five-bedroom penthouses ranging up to 21,000 square feet.
Amenities: 55,000 square feet of interconnected amenity spaces including myriad lounges, infinity pools with cabanas, children’s waterpark and child care center, padel court and a rooftop secret garden.
Rixos Residences Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi
The Rixo Residences on Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi, are designed to match its island environs with the thriving culture and finance dynamics of the city. Panoramic water and skyline views bring both faces to life, in this East & West Properties project.
Residences showcase expansive terraces offering boundless views from within a community centered around three dedicated amenity zones: the Oasis, the Haven and the Gathering. Together, wellness, fitness, social life and relaxation are all available in a number of formats.
Less than half a mile from the coast, and only 10 minutes from downtown Abu Dhabi, Rixos Residences offers generous layouts and amenity-rich public spaces that deliver equally as well for family-friendly living as well as investors.
Sales launched in August.
Number of Units: 386
Price Range: One-bedrooms starting at $570,000, with larger loft units starting at $1.8 million.
Developer/Architect: East & West Property Development under the Ennismore portfolio, with architect Aedas and interiors by HBA Residential.
Home Sizes: One- to two-bedroom apartments as well as three- and four-bedroom lofts, from 954 square feet to 2,941 square feet.
Amenities: Wellness treatment areas as well as Turkish hammam and steam rooms, landscaped walking tracks, padel court, rooftop clubhouse and plunge pool, private cinema, and services including concierge, valet and security.
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