Winter property market warms up as buyers and sellers come out to play

Traditional market trends were turned on their head this winter, with new data from PropTrack showing listings and sales in July were higher than last year and buyer enquiry remained strong. REA senior data analyst Karen Dellow said the market has been buoyant during the colder months, with sales in July 19 percent higher than last year and 16 percent higher than the five-year average.

“In contrast to 2022 and 2023, where sales dropped month-on-month from June to July, this year recorded a 10 percent uptick, which is highly unusual for this period,” Ms Dellow said. “Cities like Hobart, Brisbane, Adelaide, and regions like the ACT have experienced robust growth compared to last year, while Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth had moderate increases.”

Ms Dellow said the increase in sales was partly the result of an increase in listings, which is also unusual for winter given most people prefer to sell in Spring. In July, there were 12 percent more new listings on realestate.com.au than last year. Across the combined capital cities, there was a 14.4 percent increase while regional Australia saw a 7.9 percent uplift.

The hottest property market in the country, Perth, recorded the highest increase in new listings in July, up 16.5 percent. “Despite a significant housing shortage exacerbated by high demand, new listings are quickly snapped up, with total listings in Perth down by 20.2 percent compared to last year,” Ms Dellow said. “All other cities except Darwin had an increase in new listings in July and experienced year-on-year growth.”

Data also indicates continued strong buyer demand in Winter, with each listing on realestate.com.au attracting an average of 10 buyer enquiries in July, Ms Dellow said.

“This is equal to July 2023 and slightly higher than 2022. Given the increase in listings in July 2024, overall activity was higher. Adelaide and Brisbane lead in enquiries per listing, with 23 and 22 enquiries, respectively.”

Bucking the trend is Melbourne with eight buyer enquiries per listing in July, down 16 percent compared to 2023. “Despite increased listings in Melbourne, fewer buyers are in the market compared to other cities, as the city grapples with the highest property taxes in the country and a slower return in investors compared to the other states,” Ms Dellow said.

“A busy winter bodes well for the spring selling season … and with expectations of no further interest rate rises this year, buyers are likely to be out in force and remain active throughout the remainder of the year.”

Spring is typically the strongest selling season of the year in Australian real estate. CoreLogic data shows that over the past decade, new listings have increased by an average of 18.2 percent in Spring and sales have lifted by an average of 8.3 percent.

CoreLogic head of research, Eliza Owen, said: “Looking at spring of 2024, it is possible we could see demand come under pressure from a continuation of high interest rates, slowing economic conditions and low consumer sentiment, and sellers may struggle in two of the state capitals in particular.” Those two capital cities are Melbourne and Hobart, with Ms Owen describing them as fairly flat or falling markets at the moment. Conversely, Perth and Adelaide are particularly strong.