Australia experiencing the worst year for home building since 2011
Data from the ABS paints a grim picture for the national target to build 1.2 million new homes
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Building approvals fell again in August, as the Federal Government’s pledge of providing 1.2 million new homes looks more out of reach than ever.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released data today showing total dwelling approvals fell by 6.1 percent in August to 13,991. While approval for houses rose 0.5 percent, the non house sector — apartments and townhouses — experienced a massive fall of 16.5 percent to 4,418.
Master Builders Australia reported that the latest decline in approvals contributed to 2023-2024 being the worst year for home building in more than a decade.
“Detached house starts fell by 10.1 percent, while higher density commencements were down by 6.0 per cent,” said Master Builders Chief Economist Shane Garrett. “If building continues at this pace, we’ll be in for less than 800,000 new home starts over the next five years.
“This would mean a shortfall of over 400,000 homes compared with the National Housing Accord target.”
Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn said the data comes on the back of figures from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research which showed an alarming shortfall in the number of apprentices entering the industry and then completing their qualifications. Apprenticeship commencements fell 11.8 percent in the year to March 2023 while completion rates fell 8.6 percent over the same period.
“Today’s data releases aren’t unrelated,” Ms Wawn said. “To bring Australia out of the housing crisis we need to drastically increase the supply of housing and we can’t do that while we’re simultaneously suffering through a labour shortage.”
She said construction was experiencing a shortage of skilled workers across all trades.
“Until we’re able to address the challenges facing the future of the workforce, we won’t be able to increase building activity and reduce the impact of supply conditions in the residential building market on Australia’s inflation problem,” she said.
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Buyer demand, seller confidence and the First Home Guarantee Scheme are setting up a frantic spring, with activity likely to run through Christmas.
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The spring property market is shaping up as the most active in recent memory, according to property experts Two Red Shoes.
Mortgage brokers Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton and Brett Sutton point to a potent mix of pent-up buyer demand, robust seller confidence and the First Home Guarantee Scheme as catalysts for a sustained run.
“We’re seeing an unprecedented level of activity, with high auction numbers already a clear indicator of the market’s trajectory,” said Sutton. “Last week, Sydney saw its second-highest number of auctions for the year. This kind of volume, even before the new First Home Guarantee Scheme (FHGS) changes take effect, signals a powerful market run.”
Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton added a note of caution. “While inquiries are at an all-time high, the big question is whether we will have enough stock to meet this demand. The market is incredibly hot, and this could lead to a highly competitive environment for buyers, with many homes selling for hundreds of thousands above their reserve.”
“With listings not keeping pace with buyer demand, buyers are needing to compromise faster and bid harder.”
Two Red Shoes identifies several spring trends. The First Home Guarantee Scheme is expected to unlock a wave of first-time buyers by enabling eligible purchasers to enter with deposits as low as 5 per cent. The firm notes this supports entry and reduces rent leakage, but it is a demand-side fix that risks pushing prices higher around the relevant caps.
Buyer behaviour is shifting toward flexibility. With competition intense, purchasers are prioritising what they can afford over ideal suburb or land size. Two Red Shoes expects the common first-home target price to rise to between $1 and $1.2 million over the next six months.
Affordable corridors are drawing attention. The team highlights Hawkesbury, Claremont Meadows and growth areas such as Austral, with Glenbrook in the Lower Blue Mountains posting standout results. Preliminary Sydney auction clearance rates are holding above 70 per cent despite increased listings, underscoring the depth of demand.
The heat is not without friction. Reports of gazumping have risen, including instances where contract statements were withheld while agents continued to receive offers, reflecting the pressure on buyers in fast-moving campaigns.
Rates are steady, yet some banks are quietly trimming variable and fixed products. Many borrowers are maintaining higher repayments to accelerate principal reduction. “We’re also seeing a strong trend in rent-vesting, where owner-occupiers are investing in a property with the eventual goal of moving into it,” said Jarrett-Dalton.
“This is a smart strategy for safeguarding one’s future in this competitive market, where all signs point to an exceptionally busy and action-packed season.”
Two Red Shoes expects momentum to carry through the holiday period and into the new year, with competition remaining elevated while stock lags demand.
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