The ‘new frontier’ in Australian property is not where you think
Buyers are moving there in their droves while existing residents know they’re on a good thing
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The Australian housing market is rapidly evolving, with new research revealing changing activity in regional and city areas.
The latest Regional Movers Index from the Commonwealth Bank showed the exodus from Australian cities to the regions is significantly exceeding pre-COVID movements, sitting at 19.8 percent higher. Even more revealing is data which showed relocations are 1.8 percent up on the average recorded during the height of the lockdowns. At the same time, people in regional areas are staying put.
The report is a partnership between the Commonwealth Bank and the Regional Australian Institute. RAI CEO Liz Ritchie said the regions have become the permanent home of choice for more Australians.
“The inter-regional migration index —which tracks regional to regional relocations — has fallen by 5.1 percent, suggesting that more regional residents are content to stay where they are. With the continuing strong jobs market across regional Australia, increasing city property prices and ongoing cost-of-living pressures, it’s no surprise the regions remain desirable,” Ms Ritchie said.
She said this had significant implications for planners, with a better understanding of infrastructure needs required by planners.
“Regional Australia is truly the nation’s new frontier. There are so many opportunities in our regional communities, but likewise we know there are challenges. Housing for example remains a key ongoing concern in many communities,” she said. “Regional Australia is growing and for that to continue we need adequate foundations. The time to lay them is now.”
Among the areas to benefit from this shift over the past quarter was the Hunter Valley city of Maitland in NSW which saw a 3.4 percent increase in net migration from the cities and other regional areas. Long seen as the less desirable locale in the wine growing region, Maitland has attracted more buyers looking for an affordable home with lifestyle benefits. CBA Executive General Manager Regional and Agribusiness Banking Paul Fowler said it was an area on the rise.
“There is significant development happening around Maitland, with extensive land releases for residential, industrial, commercial and retail fuelling strong employment and construction industry opportunities,” Mr Fowler said.
“Maitland is also set to benefit from major investments in the area including the nearby Newcastle Airport which will welcome international flights from 2025, further enhancing the region’s accessibility and economic profile.”
And while Melbourne property prices continue to experience a lull, it’s a different story outside the capital, with regions closer to main city centres performing particularly well.
“A move to regional Victoria remains on trend among those relocating, with the state’s regional areas experiencing the largest surge in popularity in the 12-month period to September 2024, with its share of net regional inflows rising from 21 percent to 30 percent,” Mt Fowler said. “Trending scenic LGAs like Queenscliffe on the coast, as well as Moira, Wangaratta and Strathbogie located further north, offer attractive and more affordable lifestyle opportunities for many Australians.
“With more corporate employers setting up or relocating to Geelong, Queenscliffe’s proximity to Greater Geelong and the Melbourne CBD means more regional Australians can enjoy diverse employment opportunities while living in a beautiful location with enhanced lifestyle opportunities.”
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Buyer demand, seller confidence and the First Home Guarantee Scheme are setting up a frantic spring, with activity likely to run through Christmas.
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The spring property market is shaping up as the most active in recent memory, according to property experts Two Red Shoes.
Mortgage brokers Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton and Brett Sutton point to a potent mix of pent-up buyer demand, robust seller confidence and the First Home Guarantee Scheme as catalysts for a sustained run.
“We’re seeing an unprecedented level of activity, with high auction numbers already a clear indicator of the market’s trajectory,” said Sutton. “Last week, Sydney saw its second-highest number of auctions for the year. This kind of volume, even before the new First Home Guarantee Scheme (FHGS) changes take effect, signals a powerful market run.”
Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton added a note of caution. “While inquiries are at an all-time high, the big question is whether we will have enough stock to meet this demand. The market is incredibly hot, and this could lead to a highly competitive environment for buyers, with many homes selling for hundreds of thousands above their reserve.”
“With listings not keeping pace with buyer demand, buyers are needing to compromise faster and bid harder.”
Two Red Shoes identifies several spring trends. The First Home Guarantee Scheme is expected to unlock a wave of first-time buyers by enabling eligible purchasers to enter with deposits as low as 5 per cent. The firm notes this supports entry and reduces rent leakage, but it is a demand-side fix that risks pushing prices higher around the relevant caps.
Buyer behaviour is shifting toward flexibility. With competition intense, purchasers are prioritising what they can afford over ideal suburb or land size. Two Red Shoes expects the common first-home target price to rise to between $1 and $1.2 million over the next six months.
Affordable corridors are drawing attention. The team highlights Hawkesbury, Claremont Meadows and growth areas such as Austral, with Glenbrook in the Lower Blue Mountains posting standout results. Preliminary Sydney auction clearance rates are holding above 70 per cent despite increased listings, underscoring the depth of demand.
The heat is not without friction. Reports of gazumping have risen, including instances where contract statements were withheld while agents continued to receive offers, reflecting the pressure on buyers in fast-moving campaigns.
Rates are steady, yet some banks are quietly trimming variable and fixed products. Many borrowers are maintaining higher repayments to accelerate principal reduction. “We’re also seeing a strong trend in rent-vesting, where owner-occupiers are investing in a property with the eventual goal of moving into it,” said Jarrett-Dalton.
“This is a smart strategy for safeguarding one’s future in this competitive market, where all signs point to an exceptionally busy and action-packed season.”
Two Red Shoes expects momentum to carry through the holiday period and into the new year, with competition remaining elevated while stock lags demand.
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