Australian House Prices Retreat for First Time in Nearly Two Years
House prices rose 4.9% in 2024, but December registered a 0.1% drop
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SYDNEY—Australian house prices recorded their first monthly decline in almost two years in December, but relief for the market appears close amid growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start cutting interest rates from February.
House prices rose 4.9% in 2024, but December registered a 0.1% drop, the first since January 2023, according to property research group, CoreLogic.
The month saw deepening price falls in Melbourne and Sydney, the country’s two biggest property markets, while other state capitals also showed signs of weakening.
A national housing shortage and falling unemployment are lending some support to house prices, but elevated interest rates, poor affordability levels and low confidence are now taking a toll on the market.
“The decline in values is no surprise,” said CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless. “This result represents the housing market catching up with the reality of market dynamics.”
“Growth in housing values has been consistently weakening through the second half of the year, as affordability constraints weighed on buyer demand and advertised supply levels trended higher,” he added.
There is widening evidence of weakness in the property market, with auction activity cooling from their highs, particularly in Sydney where successful sales at auctions have fallen to just above 50% of properties listed.
Still, the tide could turn again for house prices, after the RBA indicated in December it is growing more confident that inflation will soon return to target, paving the way for the start of interest rate cuts.
Economists are forecasting another year of modest gains for house prices, with the pace of increase largely dictated by the timing and extent of RBA rate cuts.
The RBA kept the official cash rate steady at 4.35% through 2024, putting it at odds with many of the world’s major central banks that have cut aggressively.
A shortfall in housing supply is also expected to remain significant for a long while yet, with the accumulated shortfall now estimated at around 200,000 homes, said Shane Oliver , chief economist at AMP.
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Strong rental fundamentals and tight supply have driven more than $155 million in Sydney apartment block and residential investment sales over the past year.
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Sydney’s residential investment market has recorded $155 million in apartment block and townhouse sales over 2025, underscoring continued investor confidence in rental-led assets despite broader economic uncertainty.
The transactions were completed by Knight Frank’s Investment Sales agents James Masselos and Adam Droubi, who negotiated 19 sales across Sydney during the year.
Residential investments accounted for 75 per cent of their total sales activity, supported by more than 4,200 active purchaser enquiries.
Co-living deal sets national benchmark
Among the standout transactions was the off-market sale of 142 Carillon Avenue in Newtown, a 37-studio co-living apartment block located close to the University of Sydney and Royal Prince Alfred Hospital.
The property sold for $21.5 million, setting a new benchmark for the living sectors market nationally.
The deal achieved approximately $581,000 per bedroom, believed to be one of the highest per-bedroom results recorded for a co-living asset in Australia.
Inner-city assets trade in one line
Other notable sales included a group of 12 townhouses at 108 Illawarra Road in Marrickville, sold in one line for $14 million, and a block of 20 studio apartments at 171 Rowntree Street in Birchgrove, which changed hands for $6.7 million.
Both transactions reflected strong buyer competition for well-located residential assets with established income streams.
Supply constraints underpin momentum
Mr Masselos said Sydney’s apartment block market continued to benefit from tight supply and strong rental conditions.
“Apartment blocks and broader residential investments remain a robust asset class, underpinned by strong rental growth, record low vacancy levels and scarcity of stock,” he said.
He added that more than $25 million worth of residential investment opportunities are expected to come to market in 2026, with buyer enquiry remaining elevated.
Mr Droubi said competitive sales campaigns had become a feature of the market as investors sought secure income and long-term value.
“Supply constraints and ongoing population growth underpin market strength,” he said. “New approvals and completions lag demand, keeping stock tight and boosting both rents and prices.”
Vacancy rates keep pressure on rents
According to Knight Frank, rental demand across Sydney remains intense, with vacancy rates well below typical “healthy” levels.
Many middle and outer-ring suburbs are recording vacancies of around 1.5 per cent or lower, maintaining upward pressure on rents and reinforcing the appeal of residential investment assets.
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