Housing downturn deepens as RBA rate reversal hits buyers

Australia’s housing market has weakened more sharply than the Reserve Bank anticipated, with higher interest rates, deteriorating sentiment and changing tax settings pushing the national market into reverse.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the extent of the slowdown in a speech to the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney on July 28.

Housing conditions had “eased by more than we had anticipated in May”, she said, after the Bank expected its interest-rate increases to take some heat out of the market.

Bullock attributed the larger-than-forecast slowdown to several forces, including recent housing policy developments and a broader deterioration in market sentiment.

The latest Cotality Home Value Index illustrates the change. National dwelling values fell 0.4% in June, the largest monthly decline since December 2022, taking values 0.7% lower over the June quarter.

The combined capital-city index fell more heavily, declining 0.6% in June and 1.3% over the quarter. Regional values continued to outperform, rising 0.3% for the month and 1.1% over the three months to June.

Sydney and Melbourne lead the falls

The downturn remains concentrated in the country’s two largest housing markets.

Sydney dwelling values fell 1.2% in June and 3.2% over the quarter. By the end of the month, values were 3.7% below their January 2026 peak.

Melbourne values declined 1% in June and 2.6% over the quarter, leaving the market 4% below its March 2022 peak. Melbourne was also the only capital to record an annual decline, with values down 0.9% over the year to June.

Canberra fell 0.6% for the month and 1.3% over the quarter, taking values 2.9% below their May 2022 high. Hobart, despite rising 0.6% in June, remained 0.7% below its March 2022 peak.

Conditions were markedly different elsewhere.

Brisbane values rose 0.3% in June, Adelaide was unchanged, Perth gained 0.7% and Darwin climbed 1.4%. All four remained at record highs at the end of June.

Capital	June change	June-quarter change	Change from peak
Sydney	-1.2%	-3.2%	-3.7%
Melbourne	-1.0%	-2.6%	-4.0%
Brisbane	+0.3%	+1.3%	At peak
Adelaide	0.0%	+1.3%	At peak
Perth	+0.7%	+2.0%	At peak
Hobart	+0.6%	+1.4%	-0.7%
Darwin	+1.4%	+5.0%	At peak
Canberra	-0.6%	-1.3%	-2.9%

The figures reveal a divided national market rather than a uniform correction. Sydney and Melbourne are falling comparatively quickly, but strong annual gains remain intact in Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and Adelaide.

Perth values were still 23.9% higher over the year to June, while Darwin was up 19.8%, Brisbane 17.4% and Adelaide 11.6%.

Even Sydney remained 0.3% higher over the year despite its recent decline.

Bullock consequently characterised the pullback in established home prices as “modest” following a period of strong growth. She noted that Sydney and Melbourne values remained around the levels recorded before the RBA began raising rates again in February.

Buyers regain leverage

The weakness extends beyond headline prices.

Cotality estimated that capital-city sales over the three months to June were 16.2% lower than a year earlier and 14.5% below the five-year average for that time of year.

Advertised supply across the capitals was almost 11% higher than a year ago, while the combined capital-city auction clearance rate had remained below 50% since late May before falling into the low-40% range from late June.

Cotality research director Tim Lawless said the accumulation of available homes was primarily a symptom of weaker demand rather than a surge in new listings. Buyers had more properties to choose from, less urgency and greater negotiating power.

Affordability was already constraining demand before the latest interest-rate increases. Higher mortgage costs, cost-of-living pressures, pessimistic consumer sentiment and proposed federal changes affecting property investment have since added to the slowdown.

The result is likely to be a gradual decline rather than a severe national correction. Population growth, tight rental markets and limited new housing supply continue to support values, but they are increasingly being offset by weaker confidence and reduced borrowing capacity.

The RBA has erased all three of last year’s cuts

The speed of the housing slowdown becomes clearer when placed against the sharp reversal in monetary policy.

The RBA cut the cash rate three times in 2025:

From 4.35% to 4.10% in February
To 3.85% in May
To 3.60% in August

Those reductions delivered 75 basis points of easing as inflation appeared to be returning sustainably to the Bank’s 2–3% target range.

The direction changed abruptly in 2026 after inflation accelerated and the economy was judged to be operating with greater capacity pressure than previously thought.

The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points in February, March and May, lifting it from 3.60% to 4.35%. Those three increases have exactly reversed the 75 basis points of relief delivered last year.

The Board left the rate unchanged at its June 16 meeting, meaning the cash rate has been at 4.35% since May 5.

Higher mortgage rates and tighter lending assessments have reduced the amount many households can borrow, while also increasing repayments for existing variable-rate borrowers. The effect has been particularly visible in Sydney and Melbourne, where values are high and buyers are more sensitive to changes in borrowing capacity.

Bullock said the housing slowdown had gone further than the RBA forecast in May, but borrower distress remained contained. Fewer than 1% of borrowers were in negative equity, she said, and only a small proportion of that group was estimated to be experiencing severe repayment difficulty.

The labour market has also softened more than expected, with unemployment rising further than the Bank forecast. That creates a more complicated decision for the Board: inflation remains too high, but the effects of its previous tightening are becoming clearer across employment, household confidence and housing.

Bullock nevertheless reiterated that the Board was prepared to increase the cash rate again if required to meet its mandate.

The Big Four are divided over what comes next

The major banks agree that meaningful rate relief is unlikely in the immediate future, but they differ sharply over whether the RBA has finished raising rates.

Commonwealth Bank expects the cash rate to remain at 4.35% for the rest of 2026. Its economists have pencilled in the first cut for May 2027, followed by another in August, which would reduce the rate to 3.85%.

NAB also believes the next move is likely to be down, although it has expressed less confidence about the timing. Its forecast has the cash rate ending 2027 at 3.60%, implying three quarter-point cuts over the year.

ANZ’s July base case is for the RBA to remain at 4.35% until the second half of 2027. Its economists have not ruled out another increase in November if inflationary pressure intensifies. ANZ’s previously published central forecast included two cuts during 2027, taking the rate to 3.85%.

Westpac remains the outlier. Its July outlook anticipates two further rate increases during 2026, which would lift the cash rate to 4.85%, before an easing cycle begins later. This more hawkish view reflects concern that persistent inflation and energy-related cost pressures could require the RBA to tighten policy again.

Bank	Expected 2026 direction	Expected easing
CBA	Hold at 4.35%	First cut forecast for May 2027; second in August
NAB	Hold; next move expected to be down	Cash rate forecast to end 2027 at 3.60%
ANZ	Hold at 4.35%, with a November hike risk	Base case has easing beginning in the second half of 2027
Westpac	Two further hikes, potentially reaching 4.85%	Easing expected only after the additional tightening cycle

These forecasts are highly conditional. Inflation, employment, household spending and the international energy outlook could all materially alter the timing.

The June-quarter Consumer Price Index, due on July 29, will be central to the RBA’s updated economic forecasts ahead of its August 11 meeting.

A softer inflation result, combined with weakening employment and housing, would support the case for an extended pause. A stronger result—particularly in underlying inflation—would keep another increase in play.

For the housing market, even an extended hold would mean borrowers receive no early relief from the 2026 increases. Cotality expects momentum to weaken further, with expensive markets, investor-heavy areas and locations carrying elevated advertised stock among those most exposed.

Australia is not yet experiencing a broad housing collapse. Prices remain at record highs in half of the capitals, negative equity is rare and national values are still 7.3% higher than a year ago.

But the direction has changed. The RBA has removed all of last year’s rate relief, buyers have regained leverage and the country’s largest housing markets are now leading a downturn that has already proved deeper than the central bank expected.

Margot Robbie may have travelled from a Queensland farm to the highest reaches of Hollywood, but a reported $28 million property deal suggests the Gold Coast has never lost its hold on her.

The Australian actor and producer is believed to be the mystery buyer of Redwood, a seven-acre Currumbin Valley estate transformed into the architectural residence known as The Copper Arbour.

The off-market transaction reportedly settled in June 2025. Property records cited in recent media coverage identify the buyer as Pippyyork Pty Ltd, a company established only weeks before the sale. A Gold Coast accountant is listed as its sole director and shareholder, reportedly holding the company’s single share for an undisclosed party understood to be Robbie.

Neither Robbie nor her representatives have confirmed the purchase, so her ownership remains reported rather than established. Nevertheless, the location and secrecy surrounding the transaction have given the story the character of a remarkable homecoming.

Back to Currumbin Valley

Robbie spent part of her childhood on her grandparents’ farm in Currumbin Valley and has spoken affectionately about an upbringing shaped by paddocks, trees and the freedom of the Gold Coast hinterland.

In a Vogue Australia conversation with her mother, Sarie Kessler, she recalled doing homework in a tree and being called inside for dinner from beyond the paddock.

The reported purchase would return her to that landscape in considerable style.

The estate occupies approximately 2.9 hectares on the banks of Currumbin Creek. Despite its privacy and rural atmosphere, an earlier sales campaign placed it about seven minutes from Currumbin Beach and 10 minutes from Gold Coast Airport.

Its combination of acreage, creek frontage and coastal accessibility has always been central to its appeal. Mature trees line the long driveway, while paddocks, rainforest and established landscaping shelter the residence from the road and surrounding properties.

For an internationally recognised actor, producer and entrepreneur, the estate offers seclusion without isolation: a private hinterland base within easy reach of the beach, airport and southern Gold Coast.

Redwood before its transformation

The Redwood listing supplied for the property describes the estate as it existed before the current residence was built.

At that time, the two-storey house contained five bedrooms, three bathrooms, two powder rooms, several living areas, a wet bar, sauna, home office, study and three-car garage. Its defining interior feature was a stone fireplace extending through both levels, complemented by polished hardwood floors, leadlight windows, French doors and a kitchen with stone benchtops.

The grounds already possessed many of the qualities that distinguish the estate today. They included fenced paddocks, Currumbin Creek frontage, horse shelters, stables, a chicken coop, extensive sheds and storage, powered pavilions, a gymnasium and a lagoon-style pool and spa.

After changing hands for a reported $2.55 million in 2017, however, the property underwent a comprehensive redevelopment. The former house was superseded by a new, predominantly single-level residence completed in 2024.

Current reports describe the resulting estate as having six bedrooms, six bathrooms and garaging for as many as 10 vehicles, along with a pool, full-size tennis court and equestrian facilities.

Country living reimagined in copper

The approach begins along a driveway framed by mature trees. At its end, the landscape opens to reveal an expansive house wrapped in a sculptural copper skin, with the creek and gently descending land to the south and paddocks, rainforest and hills to the north.

Rather than impose a sharply contemporary object on the countryside, architect Paul Uhlmann chose materials intended to settle into it. Copper gives the house its defining identity, but it was also selected for the way it changes over time. As its surface develops a patina, the building is designed to become more closely integrated with the colours and textures of the land.

The copper roof is articulated along the length of the building, folding down in places to form wall elements that touch the ground. These changes in height and direction help reduce the apparent scale of the residence while creating the protective arbour from which it takes its name.

Spotted gum, limestone and travertine extend the warm, tactile character of the exterior into the house. Blackbutt floors, timber ceilings, band-sawn wall cladding and bespoke cabinetry give the interiors a richness suited to the rural environment without resorting to a conventional country-house aesthetic.

A home shaped around the landscape

Viewed from above, The Copper Arbour follows a Y-shaped plan.

The longest section contains the principal living spaces, which look towards both the paddocks and Currumbin Creek. At the point where the plan divides, one branch forms the parents’ wing, incorporating the main suite, study, gym and garaging with a southern outlook towards the creek. The other contains the children’s accommodation, oriented towards the pool and tennis court.

This arrangement gives the large residence a clear internal structure while allowing different parts of the family to enjoy privacy. It also enables the main living areas to operate as a central spine opening towards the surrounding landscape.

Arrival is through a forecourt and lobby, where a carefully positioned picture window frames the view beyond. From there, the public areas connect with an outdoor sitting space and planted courtyard.

A mature ornamental cherry blossom tree occupies the centre of that courtyard beside an outdoor fireplace, bringing vegetation into the building and softening the threshold between indoors and out.

The principal external entertaining area occupies a break in the building’s form. It incorporates heated stone seating, concealed screens, a cantilevered fireplace and projection facilities. An outdoor bar links the courtyard back to the living room, creating a circuit of connected spaces for entertaining.

Travertine used in the kitchen continues outside around the pool, strengthening the visual relationship between the interior and landscape. Views from the main living spaces extend in several directions, allowing the paddocks, creek, pool and hills to become part of the experience of the house.

Monumental scale, domestic character

The Copper Arbour was designed to accommodate family life, sporting equipment and large social gatherings without making its everyday spaces feel overwhelming.

That balance is central to the project. Its size, extensive garaging and recreation facilities give it the scale of a major luxury estate, yet the plan is broken into distinct wings, courtyards and gathering places intended to remain comfortable when occupied by only a small family.

The design creates deliberate contrasts: copper against greenery, limestone beside timber, large entertaining areas alongside intimate family rooms, and monumental roof forms enclosing sheltered courtyards.

Those qualities distinguish the present house from the former Redwood residence. While the old listing is useful for understanding the land and its established equestrian and lifestyle infrastructure, The Copper Arbour is not simply a renovated version of that home. It is a substantially new architectural work shaped around the same creek, paddocks and mature landscape.

Gold Coast House of the Year

The project’s design and construction have already received significant industry recognition.

In August 2025, Blenkins Build won the Master Builders Queensland Gold Coast House of the Year award for The Copper Arbour. The company also received the regional award for an individual home valued at more than $10 million.

Judges praised the execution of the hand-rolled copper roof, custom hardwood flooring and other detailed elements. They also recognised the residence’s provision for multigenerational living, health, fitness and entertaining.

The awards give important context to the reported $28 million price. This was not merely a sale of seven acres in a desirable hinterland enclave, but the acquisition of a newly completed and highly customised architectural estate.

The figure represents a dramatic increase from the property’s reported $2.55 million sale in 2017, although that comparison does not account for the scale and cost of the subsequent redevelopment. At $28 million, the latest transaction stands as an exceptional Currumbin Valley result and one of the Gold Coast hinterland’s landmark residential deals.

A personal kind of trophy home

If Robbie is confirmed as the buyer, The Copper Arbour will inevitably be described as a celebrity trophy home. Its price, architectural pedigree, acreage and discreet corporate purchase invite that interpretation.

Its location, however, gives the deal a more personal dimension.

Robbie’s career has taken her from Australian television to major international films and an influential role behind the camera through LuckyChap Entertainment. Currumbin Valley belongs to an earlier part of her story: one associated with family, farm life and the landscape she knew before becoming internationally famous.

The Copper Arbour brings those worlds together. Its award-winning architecture and resort-scale facilities reflect the demands of an international career, while its paddocks, creek frontage, mature trees and changing copper surfaces root it firmly in the Gold Coast hinterland.