THE AFFORDABLE AUSTRALIAN REGIONS BUCKING THE PRICE FALL TREND
More than ever, it pays to tread carefully when choosing an investment property in an uneven market
2 min
It’s easy to think that Australian house prices are on a downward spiral, as interest rates edge closer to the 4 percent mark.
And while the nation’s most expensive cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have experienced drops in values – Sydney is down 10.8 percent since February 2022 – it’s not the same story across the country, said Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.
“Some markets are less sensitive to interest rates. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are our most expensive cities and as a result are far more sensitive to the cost of debt,” she said. “Sydney house prices have now fallen by 10.8 per cent from their peak in February 2022. Compare that with Adelaide where the median is half that of Sydney – prices are down only 1.8 percent from the peak.”
It’s a similar result in the resource capitals of Perth and Darwin.
Research by Ray White reveals that some city and regional areas are continuing to increase in value, although it’s very much on a case-by-case basis. Potential regional property investors would do well to tread carefully before purchase.
Parts of Adelaide such as Playford, the Adelaide Hills and Salisbury have seen steady increases in house values over the past year, while in Brisbane, more affordable suburbs such as the Ipswich Hinterland, Beaudesert, Beenleigh and the Caboolture Hinterland have performed well.
The Queensland regional centre of Bundaberg experienced the highest regional growth in house values during the 12 months to January 2023, with median values up from $394,436 to $422,559, or $28,123. Other parts of Queensland, including Cairns north, the Whitsundays and Maryborough also saw values go up.
Some regions of South Australia proved more resilient as well, with house values increasing on the Limestone Coast, in the Murray and Mallee and Kangaroo Island. The Upper Hunter saw the strongest growth in NSW regional house prices, up from $414,034 to $437,108.
“At a small area level, the difference between what’s happening is even more stark,” Ms Conisbee said. “The capital city areas still recording year-on-year increases are all relatively affordable suburbs in Brisbane and Adelaide. Both of these cities recorded net interstate migration during the pandemic. Most people that moved during this time initially rented and a shift from renter to buyer is likely to be in part driving price growth.
“At a regional level, the areas seeing growth tend to be more affordable holiday destinations, as well as towns that are benefiting from strong agricultural and mining conditions.”
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Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.
3 min
Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.
Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.
Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.
“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.
“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”
Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.
Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.
“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.
Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.
He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.
“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.
“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”
Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.
He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.
McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.
While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.
“People are looking for value for money,” she said.
She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.
“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.
The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.
“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.
He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.
While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.
“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.
Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.
Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.
McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.
Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.
“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.
“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”
As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.
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