The Yuan and Yen Need the Fed’s Help. They Might Not Get It.
Being a loose monetary policy outlier is an uncomfortable place to be these days
3 min
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Central bankers at Asia’s two largest economies will be paying extra attention.
The Chinese yuan and Japanese yen are both hovering at their lowest levels against the dollar in more than a decade. The yuan has lost 13% versus the dollar since the beginning of 2022 while the yen has dropped 22%.
Both countries are grappling with weakening currencies—but their economies are in quite different situations. China must ward off deflation as its real estate implosion continues to weigh on industry and consumer sentiment. Japan, on the other hand, is contending with its highest inflation in decades.
Yet there are some important similarities too. Both countries’ central banks have pursued relatively loose monetary policies as growth challenges have mounted—in contrast with most other developed economies, which have been raising rates rapidly. China has been cutting interest rates and the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve to juice up its economy. Japan is hesitant to give up its longstanding policy of targeting ultra low interest rates in fear that the country could eventually slip back into deflation or near-deflation, too—a problem it wrestled with for years in the wake of its own burst asset bubble in the 1990s.
Widening interest rate differentials with the U.S. have put both currencies under pressure. Yields on Japan’s 10-year government bonds are 3.6 percentage points lower than on U.S. equivalents. The difference between Chinese and U.S. bonds is 1.7 points.
Both currencies have nonetheless staged a modest rebound from their lows lately. The People’s Bank of China warned speculators not to bet against the yuan earlier this month. Around the same time, Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda told domestic media that an end to the BOJ’s negative rate policy could be in the cards if its 2% inflation target is sustained.
The risk of capital outflows probably makes China uneasy. It saw net outflows pick up to $42 billion in August, the fastest pace since 2016, according to Goldman Sachs. Given the country’s semi-closed capital account, there are many tools it can employ to slow the pace of depreciation. Borrowing costs for the offshore yuan have gone up, which could deter some short-term speculators.
Yet ultimately, economic fundamentals—and monetary policy—will still drive the yuan’s trend. While the Fed looks likely to pause its rate increases, a stronger-than-expected economy could keep U.S. rates higher for longer. To stabilise its economy, China will likely need more monetary and fiscal stimulus than has been unveiled so far—meaning an even higher interest rate differential and probably, higher imports once fiscal stimulus starts to kick in. Both of those will tend to weigh on the currency, especially if U.S. rates stay parked at their current high level in 2024.
In Japan, meanwhile, the central bank looks likely to tighten eventually as it becomes more confident that inflation—at a low level—has become more baked into households’ expectations. Japan’s core inflation, which excludes fresh food, has stayed above the central bank’s 2% target for more than a year already. Japan’s 10-year government bond yields rose to their highest level since 2014 recently.
China and Japan’s plunging currencies may chart different paths going forward—especially since the yen is already down so far against the dollar over the past two years. But they could both use an assist from the Fed, which may not be forthcoming for quite a while.
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Apple’s first foldable, the $1,999 iPhone Duo, combines an iPhone and iPad Mini experience—but its size, weight and price come with compromises.
4 min
As I watched a Netflix show on Apple’s first foldable, the iPhone Duo, I had two surprising thoughts.
The first: Maybe I don’t need my iPad Mini anymore.
The second: Uh oh, am I about to spend $1,999 on a phone?
I didn’t think folding phones were for me. I’ve been testing Android versions from Samsung and Google since 2019, and those early editions came with too much screen and too many compromises.
Fast forward seven years, and the technology has come a long way. Apple—in its very Apple way—has also come up with some hardware and software trickery to make up for some shortcomings of the basic design. My desire for a folding phone before today was zero. After today, it’s a lot more than zero.
I’m not ready to recommend the Duo, which ships on Oct. 23, just yet. Not until I am able to test it more fully, so be on the lookout for that review in a few weeks. But from what I experienced at Apple Park on Wednesday, I could actually picture myself using this new half-phone, half-tablet hybrid.
Crease camouflage
For months, I’ve been using Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, a similarly squat, passport-shaped foldable that opens up to a larger screen. It’s impressively thin and can easily fit into the infuriatingly tiny pockets in women’s pants and dresses. Samsung did a lot of work to minimize the crease—the dip between the two halves of the big interior display—but it’s still clearly there.
When I held the iPhone Duo open, the crease was barely visible. As I slid my finger across the display, I could feel it, but it’s more subtle than Samsung’s. Most of the time, the screen looked as flat and smooth as the one on an iPad.
Apple employed both software and hardware techniques to camouflage the crease. The matte surface of the interior 7.6-inch screen minimizes reflections to hide it. (Samsung’s Fold 8 screen is shiny.)
And as you begin to open or close the iPhone Duo, the interface shifts the controls and content away from the center crease. If, say, you’re watching a video on the outer screen, you can open the Duo to switch to the bigger display within. A black fade marks the transition. You don’t see the video full screen until the phone is completely flat.
Heavy handed
My second observation was that, when the Duo is closed, in phone mode, it was harder to use one-handed than I expected.
In the keynote trailer and press release, Apple touted how thin the Duo is. It’s marketed as the thinnest iPhone ever—when open.
But it’s actually thicker and heavier than most of its Android competitors. The Duo weighs 254 grams, and is 11.3 millimeters thick when closed. The Samsung Galaxy Fold 8 is just 201 grams, with a thickness of 9.7 millimeters. Google’s Pixel 11 Pro Fold is 239 grams and 10.1 millimeters.
Because the Duo is also wider than a standard iPhone, I found it quite a challenge to type.
I admit, I do have smaller-than-average hands. So I consulted my colleague Rolfe Winkler, who has a larger grip. He agreed the Duo feels big.
Apple rearranged the interface on the outer screen so it looks different than traditional iPhones. The dock and control center are off to the right to be more reachable. Committing to the Duo as your main device will require adjustments in your handling. You will have to learn a new way to use and type.
Work and play
My most surprising takeaway? I feel a pull toward this device.
I always thought that combining an iPhone and an iPad would mean bigger compromises. The battery life is about the same as the 18 Pro (up to 24 hours of “regular use” on a single charge), though I’ll need to verify that in my real-world testing. And it’s also as durable, with the same IP68 dust- and water-resistance rating as the rest of the iPhone lineup.
There are trade-offs, for sure. Trying out the camera, I immediately missed the 8X zoom in my Pro model. The Duo has just 2X zoom, which wouldn’t cut it for the dozens of pictures I take of my kid every day.
But the dual screens unlock new photo functionality. You can see what your shot looks like from the outside screen. As someone who has tried tirelessly to self-direct a family photo—or a spouse—I am very eager to try this out more.
Foldables, I initially thought, were for classic mobile-warrior jet-setter types, who never sit at a desk and are always on calls. For that crowd, the Duo can run two apps side-by-side.
Me, I’m more of a bed binge-watcher and ebook reader. That’s what my beloved iPad Mini is for.
Watching videos on the Duo is a nice experience—nice enough that you forget the screen is 0.7 inches smaller than the iPad Mini’s. The main screen is also a 4:3 aspect ratio. Very similar, by the way, to the IMAX edition of the Odyssey.
Because I wasn’t able to snag a ticket to one of the sold-out screenings, I will be watching Christopher Nolan’s version of Homer’s epic on the Duo, just as the director intended. (Just kidding! Sort of.)
The Duo costs $800 more than an iPhone 18 Pro, and I’m not sure I want to spend that premium on a first-generation Apple device. But I’m not ruling out the idea that a Duo might one day be in my future. Stay tuned for my full review.
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