In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.—Kellen Driscoll bought his home here in 2019, settling in the coastal enclave of Shore Acres. It flooded for the first time four years ago after tropical storm Eta dumped more than 3 feet of water.

Hoping it was a fluke, Driscoll tore out the affected drywall and started fresh. After all, the four-bedroom home built in 1960 had no flood history.

But then it happened again, and again. Like many others in the community, he put his home up for sale in the spring of this year. After seeing little interest, he cut the asking price.

On Friday, Hurricane Helene deposited more than 6 feet of storm surge in the neighbourhood. The rushing waters ripped the “For Sale” sign off his front lawn, and etched a waterline that reached halfway up his front door, just underneath the doorbell. He reduced the asking price for a fifth time.

“We flooded here four times in the last four years,” said Driscoll, as he threw his television sets, furniture, appliances and other belongings to the curb. “I’m just hoping I can sell the house. It’s a good neighbourhood for sure, but dealing with the floods is horrible.”

When Kellen Driscoll purchased his home in 2019 it had no flood history. Since then his home, built in 1960, has flooded four times in the past four years. Photo: Deborah Acosta/WSJ

In the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, which includes St. Petersburg, a real-estate boom nearly doubled median home values from 2018 to June of this year, according to Redfin data. Young people flocked to the region, looking for a coastal lifestyle at a relatively affordable price.

The Tampa Bay metro area was the fifth most popular relocation destination in the country, according to an analysis by Redfin last year. The population has soared to more than three million.

But as Shore Acres’s young residents sorted through the storm’s wreckage, only one thing was on their minds: selling.

Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms are starting to undermine housing markets throughout much of the state. But in few places has the turnaround been more dramatic than in low-lying communities up and down the coast of Florida that frequently flood.

The Tampa Bay housing market had been softening even before Helene struck. While prices have been flat, the area experienced a 58% increase in supply in August compared with a year ago, and a 10% decrease in demand, according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data and analytics firm.

About half the homes listed for sale in Tampa experienced price reductions as of Sept. 9, the third highest share of all U.S. major metropolitan areas.

“Tampa was already heading in this direction before the hurricane hit,” said Jason Lewris, co-founder of Parcl Labs. “This hurricane may compound the market dynamics that have been occurring there over the last few months.”

While Tampa escaped a direct hit from the eye of the hurricane, it was the worst storm to hit the area in a century. The hurricane also plowed into landlocked towns well north, causing heavy damage in the Carolinas where people were just beginning to absorb the scope of ruin.

‘Let’s roll the dice’

Bradley Tennant’s home flooded last year. But to avoid all the competition, he was waiting a year to put it up for sale.

“We saw the glut of homes for sale in the spring and thought, ‘What are the chances it’ll hit again the next year?’” said Tennant, as he cleared out the soaked contents of his waterfront home. “We went 50 years without a storm that flooded the house. So we thought, let’s roll the dice.”

While he paid around $350,000 for the house about seven years ago, Tennant says he received offers as high as $800,000 during the height of the market—before last year’s storm hit. Now he’s hoping to sell as soon as he’s able to renovate.

The area’s affordability, once a large part of its appeal, is also waning as insurance premiums soar. Jacob McFadden was paying $880 a year to insure his home when he bought it in 2020. That amount has since almost quadrupled, to $3,300.

Premiums will likely increase again now. Property damage from last week’s Category 4 storm could be as high as $26 billion, according to estimates from Moody’s Analytics.

“I don’t know how much longer I’m going to do this waterfront living,” McFadden said, standing in front of his home with a wheelbarrow and his home’s contents scattered around the front yard. “This may be the end.”

Dustin Pentz bought his home 10 years ago, and was one of the lucky few to avoid flooding. That is until Hurricane Helene. When police blocked his car from entering the neighbourhood, he paddleboarded his way home to assess the damage.

His fridge was knocked over, and the water reached up as high as his mattress. Unfortunately, his flood insurance doesn’t cover the contents of his home. A tree in his backyard fell over and hit the corner of his roof, but he was unsure that the damage would hit his $8,500 wind deductible.

“This neighbourhood’s amazing, great schools. But no one wants to deal with this all the time,” said Pentz. “It sucks because no one wants to live here anymore. There are so many houses for sale and no one’s buying.”

Working class squeezed

Down the street, Domonique Tomlinson and her husband, Leon Tomlinson, filed a claim for items they lost in last year’s flood. They didn’t want to go through the headache of filing another claim for the contents of their home this year, with a separate $5,000 deductible.

Two days before Hurricane Helene hit, they rented a moving van to haul many of their belongings to a storage unit. She bought her home four years ago for around $199,000. Because property values have increased so much in her area, she hopes to break even. But now she says she’s not so sure.

Tomlinson, who is a teacher, and her husband, who works as a manager at a grocery store, worry that people like them will be priced out of the area because they can’t afford the preventive measures and insurance.

“Basically the only people that are going to be able to live back here are rich people who can build up,” she said.

Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.

Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.

Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.

“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.

“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”

Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.

Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.

“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.

Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.

He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.

“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.

“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”

Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.

He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.

McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.

While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.

“People are looking for value for money,” she said.

She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.

“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.

The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.

“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.

He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.

While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.

“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.

Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.

Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.

McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.

Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.

“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.

“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”

As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.

In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell

Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms hit Tampa Bay housing market hard

‘Let’s roll the dice’

Working class squeezed

Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.