Pain for vendors as more properties sell at a loss

The number of properties selling at a loss is on the rise in Australia, new research released today reveals.

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for June shows that Sydney had the highest levels of homes selling at a loss across the capital cities, reaching 10.7 percent over the March quarter. It’s the highest level since the August quarter of 2009. Melbourne, Darwin and Perth also saw increases in the numbers of properties selling at a loss.

The report noted that there has also been a rise in the share of sales of properties held for less than two years, with an increase of 8.4 percent over the March quarter, up from 6.6 percent over the same period last year.

Report author and CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said such behaviour was historically a little unusual.

“Such short selling times that involve sellers incurring a loss may be considered unusual, because hold periods typically increase during housing value downturns, as sellers try to avoid making a loss,” Ms Owen said.
“The implication may be that some sellers are choosing to incur a loss from resale in order to avoid particularly high mortgage repayments in the current rate-hiking environment.”

The pain has been felt more in the unit market, which has experienced a faster deterioration in profitability than the housing market over the past year. The report speculated that the performance of the unit market may be an indication that investors are struggling to service their mortgages. In this environment, it may also be an indication that sellers are willing to offload their property for less rather than face higher mortgage payments.

Ms Owen said residential resale gains remained significant in overall terms. While the largest capitals had experienced the greatest losses, there were capital cities still experiencing gains. In Hobart, 99 percent of resales made a nominal gain, while 98.1 percent of resales in Canberra recorded a profit. Brisbane also saw an increase over the quarter, with 95.7 percent of resales experiencing a gain.

The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.

Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.

Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.

But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.

Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.

Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.

Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.

The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.

The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.

The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.

Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.

That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.

Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.

We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.

At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.

This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.

Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.

The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.

Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.

And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.

Pain for vendors as more properties sell at a loss

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Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.