Commercial Property Market Set to Rebound Through 2026
Knight Frank’s latest Horizon 2025 update signals renewed confidence in Australian commercial real estate, with signs of recovery accelerating across cities and sectors.
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The recovery of Australia’s commercial property sector is expected to gather pace throughout 2025 and into 2026, according to new research released by Knight Frank.
The update to the firm’s Horizon 2025 outlook finds that the sector is “sequentially turning the corner back to growth,” with fundamentals for long-term expansion firmly in place.
While global risks, such as the impact of US-imposed tariffs, still linger, the report notes the worst may be behind the market.
Knight Frank Chief Economist Ben Burston said: “In this respect, property is better placed than other asset classes to withstand the trade war,” adding that volatility in equity and fixed income markets has made property a more attractive option once again.
Following a period of disruption, retail and industrial asset values were the first to recover, with all segments and cities returning to growth by late 2024.
“Office values have also now turned positive in Q1, off the back of improving prospects for core CBD assets despite pockets of over-supply elsewhere,” Burston said.
The report also points to increasing liquidity, with large-scale acquisitions becoming more common and investor confidence returning amid expectations of further interest rate cuts.
“Property markets will respond to the rate-cutting cycle, and the shift in the outlook raises the prospect of yield compression in the second half of the year, starting in the most favoured core markets,” said Burston.
Industrial and logistics assets are leading the charge, with competition intensifying for prime properties in Brisbane and Sydney.
Meanwhile, the living sectors continue to gain ground, with nearly 16,000 new student accommodation and build-to-rent units under construction and more than 20,000 approved for future development.
With asset values now well below replacement cost and market rents lagging, Knight Frank reports a growing pool of investors positioning themselves in core markets to take advantage of cyclical recovery and medium-term rental growth.
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The 2026 McGrath Report warns that without urgent reforms to planning, infrastructure and construction, housing affordability will continue to slip beyond reach for most Australians.
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Australia’s housing market has reached a critical juncture, with home ownership and rental affordability deteriorating to their worst levels in decades, according to the McGrath Report 2026.
The annual analysis from real estate entrepreneur John McGrath paints a sobering picture of a nation where even the “lucky country” has run out of luck — or at least, out of homes.
New borrowers are now spending half their household income servicing loans, while renters are devoting one-third of their earnings to rent.
The time needed to save a 20 per cent deposit has stretched beyond ten years, and the home price-to-income ratio has climbed to eight times. “These aren’t just statistics,” McGrath writes. “They represent real people and real pain.”
McGrath argues that the root cause of Australia’s housing crisis is not a shortage of land, but a shortage of accessibility and deliverable stock.
“Over half our population has squeezed into just three cities, creating price pressure and rising density in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane while vast developable land sits disconnected from essential infrastructure,” he says.
The report identifies three faltering pillars — supply, affordability and construction viability — as the drivers of instability in the current market.
Developers across the country, McGrath notes, are “unable to make the numbers work” due to labour shortages and soaring construction costs.
In many trades, shortages have doubled or tripled, and build costs have surged by more than 30 per cent, stalling thousands of projects.
Need for systemic reform
McGrath’s prescription is clear: the only real solution lies in increasing supply through systemic reform. “We need to streamline development processes, reduce approval timeframes and provide better infrastructure to free up the options and provide more choice for everyone on where they live,” he says.
The 2026 edition of the report also points to promising trends in policy and innovation. Across several states, governments are prioritising higher-density development near transport hubs and repurposing government-owned land with existing infrastructure.
Build-to-rent models are expanding, and planning reforms are gaining traction. McGrath notes that while these steps are encouraging, they must be accelerated and supported by new construction methods if Australia is to meet demand.
One of the report’s key opportunities lies in prefabrication and modular design. “Prefabricated homes can be completed in 10–12 weeks compared to 18 months for a traditional house, saving time and money for everyone involved,” McGrath says.
The report suggests that modular and 3D-printed housing could play a significant role in addressing shortages while setting a new global benchmark for speed, cost and quality in residential construction.
Intelligent homes
In a section titled Weathering the Future: The Power of Smart Design, the report emphasises that sustainable and intelligent home design is no longer aspirational but essential.
It highlights new technologies that reduce energy use, improve thermal efficiency, and make homes more resilient to climate risks.
“There’s no reason why Australia shouldn’t be a world leader in innovative design and construction — and many reasons why we should be,” McGrath writes.
Despite the challenges, the tone of the 2026 McGrath Report is one of cautious optimism. Demand is expected to stabilise at around 175,000 households per year from 2026, and construction cost growth is finally slowing. Governments are also showing a greater willingness to reform outdated planning frameworks.
McGrath concludes that the path forward requires bold decisions and collaboration between all levels of government and industry.
“Australia has the land, demand and capability,” he says. “What we need now is the will to implement supply-focused solutions that address root causes rather than symptoms.”
“Only then,” he adds, “can we turn the dream of home ownership back into something more than a dream.”
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