Commercial Property Market Set to Rebound Through 2026
Knight Frank’s latest Horizon 2025 update signals renewed confidence in Australian commercial real estate, with signs of recovery accelerating across cities and sectors.
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The recovery of Australia’s commercial property sector is expected to gather pace throughout 2025 and into 2026, according to new research released by Knight Frank.
The update to the firm’s Horizon 2025 outlook finds that the sector is “sequentially turning the corner back to growth,” with fundamentals for long-term expansion firmly in place.
While global risks, such as the impact of US-imposed tariffs, still linger, the report notes the worst may be behind the market.
Knight Frank Chief Economist Ben Burston said: “In this respect, property is better placed than other asset classes to withstand the trade war,” adding that volatility in equity and fixed income markets has made property a more attractive option once again.
Following a period of disruption, retail and industrial asset values were the first to recover, with all segments and cities returning to growth by late 2024.
“Office values have also now turned positive in Q1, off the back of improving prospects for core CBD assets despite pockets of over-supply elsewhere,” Burston said.
The report also points to increasing liquidity, with large-scale acquisitions becoming more common and investor confidence returning amid expectations of further interest rate cuts.
“Property markets will respond to the rate-cutting cycle, and the shift in the outlook raises the prospect of yield compression in the second half of the year, starting in the most favoured core markets,” said Burston.
Industrial and logistics assets are leading the charge, with competition intensifying for prime properties in Brisbane and Sydney.
Meanwhile, the living sectors continue to gain ground, with nearly 16,000 new student accommodation and build-to-rent units under construction and more than 20,000 approved for future development.
With asset values now well below replacement cost and market rents lagging, Knight Frank reports a growing pool of investors positioning themselves in core markets to take advantage of cyclical recovery and medium-term rental growth.
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Hospitality entrepreneurs Bruce and Chyka Keebaugh have set a new price benchmark for apartment living in Richmond with their purchase of a Carmine House penthouse.
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Leading Australian development manager Fortis has secured a landmark off-the-plan sale at Richmond Square, with high-profile hospitality entrepreneurs Bruce and Chyka Keebaugh purchasing a 550sqm penthouse residence in Carmine House, establishing a new price benchmark for apartment living in Richmond.
The purchase underscores the continued demand for premium, amenity-rich residences in Melbourne’s inner east.
The transaction marks a significant milestone for the $330 million mixed-use precinct, reinforcing buyer appetite for integrated, lifestyle-led developments.
Richmond Square comprises two residential offerings – Carmine House and Wiltshire House – alongside a 57-room boutique hotel, strata office space and a curated mix of retail and lifestyle operators.
As part of Carmine House, residents have access to hotel-style amenities and services, including concierge, housekeeping, dry cleaning and in-residence food and beverage delivery.
Best known for building The Big Group into one of Australia’s leading luxury hospitality and events businesses, the Keebaughs were drawn to the precinct’s integrated lifestyle offering and its proximity to Melbourne’s hospitality, cultural and sporting precincts, while remaining well connected to the Mornington Peninsula, where they spend much of their time.
As well, Chyka is well known to Australian audiences as one of the original stars of The Real Housewives of Melbourne, appearing across three seasons of the hit reality series.
Alongside her business ventures with Bruce, she has built a public profile as a lifestyle authority, authoring two books on home and entertaining, Chyka Home and Chyka Celebrate.
“We weren’t simply looking for a luxury apartment,: the couple said. “We were looking for a home that delivers an exceptional lifestyle every day. The combination of design, walkability, security and the broader precinct vision for the broader precinct immediately stood out.”
Jordan Winada, Head of Acquisitions (Commercial) Victoria at Fortis, said the result highlights evolving priorities at the top end of the market.
“This sale reinforces that premium buyers are prioritising the complete lifestyle experience,” says Winada.
“They’re increasingly looking beyond the apartment itself and assessing the quality of the surrounding neighbourhood as well.”
Sean Cussell, Director at Christie’s International Real Estate Victoria, who negotiated the transaction, said the result reflects the lack of comparable product at this level of the market.
“There’s simply no direct comparison for this in Richmond. It’s not just an apartment; it’s part of a fully integrated precinct combining residential, hotel, workplace and lifestyle amenity,” Cussell said.
“Buyers are increasingly assessing the broader offering, from amenity and walkability to service and convenience. Projects that deliver a complete lifestyle experience continue to outperform.”
The sale contributes to Fortis’ strong national performance, with the business recording more than $124 million in sales since March, the last three all record-breaking penthouse sales across the country, reflecting sustained momentum across its portfolio and continued appetite for premium, design-driven developments.
This follows Fortis’ recent record-breaking Ruby House penthouse sale in Sydney’s Double Bay, which set a new benchmark for apartment living in the suburb and underscores the strength of demand at the ultra-premium end of the market.
Richmond Square will announce its hospitality and lifestyle operators in the coming weeks as the project progresses towards completion this year.
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