MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26
Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.
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Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.
New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.
The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.
One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.
That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.
Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.
A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.
Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.
The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.
At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.
The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.
Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.
Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.
The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.
Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.
For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.
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More than half of Stage One was exchanged on opening day as buyers chase harbour views, amenity and metro connectivity at 177 Walker Street.
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North Sydney’s apartment market notched another milestone with the launch of The Walden, where 55 per cent of the Stage One release exchanged contracts totalling $103 million within three hours of sales opening. The project is by ALAND, a gold star iCIRT rated developer and builder.
Positioned at 177 Walker Street on the eastern edge of the CBD, The Walden fronts uninterrupted harbour views from the Sydney Harbour Bridge to Sydney Heads.
Limited local housing supply, strong demand from affluent downsizers and a growing population are cited as drivers of both interest and pricing in the suburb.
Data referenced in the release notes North Sydney apartment prices rose nearly 10 per cent in the 12 months to August 2025, compared with an average year to date gain of 0.7 per cent across wider Sydney. The precinct continues to benefit from public and private investment as it evolves into an 18 hour destination.
“It’s clear that North Sydney’s changing rapidly, and property buyers are excited both by what’s on offer in the suburb now, as well as what’s yet to come,” ALAND Founder Andrew Hrsto said.
“Against this backdrop, The Walden is set to become a benchmark for luxury living in North Sydney, and it’s perfectly poised for buyers to capitalise on the continued growth and transformation in the local area. With its unrivalled amenities, refined design, and rare balance of sophistication and community connection, The Walden delivers a lifestyle unlike anything else on the market.”
Planned resident facilities include a fully equipped gym, wellness and treatment room, spa, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining room, pool, dedicated work from home and meeting spaces, plus concierge services.
“Apartment sales in North Sydney have remained robust throughout 2025, and today’s opening sales at The Walden reflect strong buyer confidence in the area’s ongoing revitalisation,” said Ben Stewart, Partner at SRM Residential, which is overseeing sales.
He added that purchasers are responding to apartment scale and amenity, along with metro connectivity that places Barangaroo three minutes away and Martin Place five minutes away.
“The Walden has the best views in this part of the North Shore which can never be built out, with 70% of apartments enjoying front row views of the harbour.”
Stewart also pointed to confidence in delivery and quality. “The design and sizing of apartments at The Walden is a level above the majority of other projects on the market, and we’re seeing buyers prioritise well designed apartments that offer both lifestyle appeal and long term investment potential.
“ALAND’s 23 years of delivery success, backed its Gold Star iCIRT rating and Latent Defect Insurance (LDI) have been embraced by this market.”
Construction is scheduled to commence in early 2026, with completion targeted for 2028.
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