MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26
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MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26

Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.

By Staff Writer
Tue, Sep 30, 2025 11:38amGrey Clock 2 min

Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.

New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.

The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.

One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.

That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.

Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.

A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.

Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.

The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.

At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.

The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.

Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.

Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.

The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.

Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.

For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.



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Everyone Wants a Room Where They Can Escape Their Screens

Weary of ‘smart’ everything, Americans are craving stylish ‘analog rooms’ free of digital distractions—and designers are making them a growing trend.

By NORA KNOEPFLMACHER
Tue, Jan 13, 2026 5 min

James and Ellen Patterson are hardly Luddites. But the couple, who both work in tech, made an unexpectedly old-timey decision during the renovation of their 1928 Washington, D.C., home last year.

The Pattersons had planned to use a spacious unfinished basement room to store James’s music equipment, but noticed that their children, all under age 21, kept disappearing down there to entertain themselves for hours without the aid of tablets or TVs.

Inspired, the duo brought a new directive to their design team.

The subterranean space would become an “analog room”: a studiously screen-free zone where the family could play board games together, practice instruments, listen to records or just lounge about lazily, undistracted by devices.

For decades, we’ve celebrated the rise of the “smart home”—knobless, switchless, effortless and entirely orchestrated via apps.

But evidence suggests that screen-free “dumb” spaces might be poised for a comeback.

Many smart-home features are losing their luster as they raise concerns about surveillance and, frankly, just don’t function.

New York designer Christine Gachot said she’d never have to work again “if I had a dollar for every time I had a client tell me ‘my smart music system keeps dropping off’ or ‘I can’t log in.’ ”

Google searches for “how to reduce screen time” reached an all-time high in 2025. In the past four years on TikTok, videos tagged #AnalogLife—cataloging users’ embrace of old technology, physical media and low-tech lifestyles—received over 76 million views.

And last month, Architectural Digest reported on nostalgia for old-school tech : “landline in hand, cord twirled around finger.”

Catherine Price, author of “ How to Break Up With Your Phone,” calls the trend heartening.

“People are waking up to the idea that screens are getting in the way of real life interactions and taking steps through design choices to create an alternative, places where people can be fully present,” said Price, whose new book “ The Amazing Generation ,” co-written with Jonathan Haidt, counsels tweens and kids on fun ways to escape screens.

From both a user and design perspective, the Pattersons consider their analog room a success.

Freed from the need to accommodate an oversize television or stuff walls with miles of wiring, their design team—BarnesVanze Architects and designer Colman Riddell—could get more creative, dividing the space into discrete music and game zones.

Ellen’s octogenarian parents, who live nearby, often swing by for a round or two of the Stock Market Game, an eBay-sourced relic from Ellen’s childhood that requires calculations with pen and paper.

In the music area, James’s collection of retro Fender and Gibson guitars adorn walls slicked with Farrow & Ball’s Card Room Green , while the ceiling is papered with a pattern that mimics the organic texture of vintage Fender tweed.

A trio of collectible amps cluster behind a standing mic—forming a de facto stage where family and friends perform on karaoke nights. Built-in cabinets display a Rega turntable and the couple’s vinyl record collection.

“Playing a game with family or doing your own little impromptu karaoke is just so much more joyful than getting on your phone and scrolling for 45 minutes,” said James.

The Patterson family’s basement retreat ‘encapsulates the joy in the things that we love in one room.’ John Cole

Screen-Free ‘Escapes’

“Dumb” design will likely continue to gather steam, said Hans Lorei, a designer in Nashville, Tenn., as people increasingly treat their homes “less as spaces to optimise and more as spaces to retreat.”

Case in point: The top-floor nook that designer Jeanne Hayes of Camden Grace Interiors carved out in her Connecticut home as an “offline-office” space.

Her desk? A periwinkle beanbag chair paired with an ottoman by Jaxx. “I hunker down here when I need to escape distractions from the outside world,” she explained.

“Sometimes I’m scheming designs for a project while listening to vinyl, other times I’m reading the newspaper in solitude. When I’m in here without screens, I feel more peaceful and more productive at the same time—two things that rarely go hand in hand.”

A subtle archway marks the transition into designer Zoë Feldman’s Washington, D.C., rosy sunroom—a serene space she conceived as a respite from the digital demands of everyday life.

Used for reading and quiet conversation, it “reinforces how restorative it can be to be physically present in a room without constant input,” the designer said.

Laura Lubin, owner of Nashville-based Ellerslie Interiors, transformed a tiny guest bedroom in her family’s cottage into her own “wellness room,” where she retreats for sound baths, massages and reflection.

“Without screens, the room immediately shifts your nervous system. You’re not multitasking or consuming, you’re just present,” said Lubin.

As a designer, she’s fielding requests from clients for similar spaces that support mental health and rest, she said.

“People are overstimulated and overscheduled,” she explained. “Homes are no longer just places to live—they’re expected to actively support well-being.”

Designer Molly Torres Portnof of New York’s DATE Interiors adopted the same brief when she designed a music room for her husband, owner of the labels Greenway Records and Levitation, in their Lido Beach, N.Y. home. He goes there nightly to listen to records or play his guitar.

The game closet from the townhouse in “The Royal Tenenbaums”? That idea is back too, says Gachot. Last year she designed an epic game room backed by a rock climbing wall for a young family in Montana.

When you’re watching a show or on your phone, “it’s a solo experience for the most part,” the designer said. “The family really wanted to encourage everybody to do things together.”

Photo: John Cole

Analog Accessories

Don’t have the space—or the budget—to kit out an entire retro rec room?

“There are a lot of small tweaks you can make even if you don’t have the time, energy or budget to design a fully analog room from scratch,” said Price.

Gachot says “the small things in people’s lives are cues of what the bigger trends are.”

More of her clients, she’s noticed, have been requesting retrograde staples, such as analog clocks and magazine racks.

For her Los Angeles living room, chef Sara Kramer sourced a vintage piano from Craigslist to be the room’s centerpiece, rather than sacrifice its design to the dominant black box of a smart TV. Alabama designer Lauren Conner recently worked with a client who bought a home with a rotary phone.

Rather than rip it out, she decided to keep it up and running, adding a silver receiver cover embellished with her grandmother’s initials.

Some throwback accessories aren’t so subtle. Melia Marden was browsing listings from the Public Sale Auction House in Hudson, N.Y. when she spotted a phone booth from Bell Systems circa the late 1950s and successfully bid on it for a few hundred dollars.

“It was a pandemic impulse buy,” said Marden.

In 2023, she and her husband, Frank Sisti Jr., began working with designer Elliot Meier and contractor ReidBuild to integrate the booth into what had been a hallway linen closet in their Brooklyn townhouse.

Canadian supplier Old Phone Works refurbished the phone and sold them the pulse-to-tone converter that translates the rotary dial to a modern phone line.

The couple had collected a vintage whimsical animal-adorned wallpaper (featured in a different colourway in “Pee-wee’s Playhouse”) and had just enough to cover the phone booth’s interior.

Their children, ages 9 and 11, don’t have their own phones, so use the booth to communicate with family. It’s also become a favorite spot for hiding away with a stack of Archie comic books.

The booth has brought back memories of meandering calls from Marden’s own youth—along with some of that era’s simple joy. As Meier puts it: “It’s got this magical wardrobe kind of feeling.”

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