MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26
Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.
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Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.
New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.
The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.
One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.
That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.
Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.
A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.
Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.
The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.
At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.
The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.
Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.
Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.
The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.
Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.
For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.
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The new Brooklyn Tower, a mix of luxury condos and rentals, rises from the historic Dime Savings Bank building.
3 min
Listing of the Day
Location: Downtown Brooklyn, New York
Price: $16.75 million
Boasting 360-degree panoramic views across New York City, this new 92nd-floor penthouse is the highest residence in Brooklyn.
The full-floor apartment stands atop the new Brooklyn Tower, which encompasses 143 condos and 398 rentals in the heart of downtown Brooklyn, said Katie Sachsenmaier, senior sales director, Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group.
The condos begin on the 53rd floor, and the penthouses begin on the 88th floor. This one, Penthouse 92, is the only full-floor penthouse.
“The building is coming into its own now,” she said. “It feels very busy when you step into the lobby.”
Developed by Silverstein Properties, the building at 85 Fleet Street rises from the historic Dime Savings Bank building, according to a news release.
It was designed by SHoP Architects with interiors curated by Gachot Studios, and it is the borough’s only super tall skyscraper.
Penthouse 92 features custom interiors by Brooklyn-based Susan Clark of design firm Radnor, Sachsenmaier said. “Her selections have made it really beautiful. It feels very warm and inviting.”
Architectural details include 12-foot ceilings, European white oak floors in a custom honey stain, mahogany millwork, bronze detailing and floor-to-ceiling windows.
The eat-in kitchen features Absolute Black stone countertops, an island with seating, oil-rubbed bronze Waterworks fixtures and integrated Miele appliances, according to the listing.
The primary en suite bathroom showcases large-format Honed Breccia Capraia marble. There is also a separate laundry room as well as a wet bar and a butler’s pantry.
The views are spectacular, Sachsenmaier said. “If you’re standing in the living room, you take in the Statue of Liberty and all the way up through Midtown. On a clear day, you can see the planes take off at LaGuardia (Airport).”
Photo: Sean Hemmerle
Moving around the apartment, you see south over the harbor and then north and east over the whole city, she said.
From the front door, “you’re immediately greeted with the expansive living room and the view,” she said. “It’s really the first thing you see.”
The primary suite features a dressing room, multiple walk-in closets, two bathrooms (one with a cedar sauna) and southwest-facing windows, Sachsenmaier said. “You get those really beautiful harbour views.
The amenities will be ready by the end of summer, she said. A Life Time club will occupy the entire sixth and seventh floors, and an outdoor pool deck wraps around the dome of the bank building.
Stats
The 5,891-square-foot home has four bedrooms, five full bathrooms and one partial bathroom.
Amenities
Residents will have access to over 100,000 square feet of exclusive indoor and outdoor leisure spaces.
Fitness company Life Time will manage an array of amenities that include a 75-foot indoor lap pool, outdoor pools, a poolside lounge and atrium, a billiards room, a library lounge, a conference room, a theatre with a wet bar, a children’s playground and playroom and limited off-site parking.
The Sky Park offers an open-air loggia with a basketball court, foosball, a playground and a dog run.
Photo: Gabriel Saunders
Neighbourhood Notes
Downtown Brooklyn is at the centre of a number of neighbourhoods, including Fort Greene, Cobble Hill, Boerum Hill and Brooklyn Heights. The tower has access to 13 subway lines, 11 commuter trains, the city’s ferry network and 22 Citi Bike stations.
“You can walk to Fort Greene Park in less than 10 minutes,” and Dekalb Market Hall, which has a Trader Joe’s, a Target and a food hall, is “right next door,” Sachsenmaier said.
Agent: Katie Sachsenmaier, senior sales director, Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group
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