MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26
Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.
2 min
Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.
New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.
The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.
One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.
That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.
Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.
A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.
Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.
The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.
At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.
The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.
Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.
Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.
The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.
Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.
For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.
Records keep falling in 2025 as harbourfront, beachfront and blue-chip estates crowd the top of the market.
A divide has opened in the tech job market between those with artificial-intelligence skills and everyone else.
Designed by the late Kerry Hill and built by Hutchinson Builders, The Residence at Hayman Island blends tropical modernism with absolute waterfront luxury.
2 min
Is this Whitsunday’s best home?
Hayman Island may have been ravaged by Cyclone Debbie in 2017, which saw the island, one of the smallest of the major Whitsunday islands, all but shut down, but the 390-hectare paradise has made an extraordinary comeback.
The InterContinental brand took over the island’s only resort, which was completely devastated by the Category 4 cyclone. The same year the cyclone hit, The Residence at Hayman was built, one of just two private residences on the island.
Constructed by Hutchinson Builders, a Tier 1 builder better known for delivering some of South East Queensland’s finest multi-residential developments, the lavish home is made from reinforced concrete with a blend of glass and timber battening.
It was designed by the late, internationally renowned architect Kerry Hill, widely regarded as a key figure in refining tropical modernist architecture. Hill was an island specialist, having designed several major resorts in Bali.
The Residence at Hayman spans three levels and offers over 1,400 sqm of living space, including around 580 sqm of internal living areas. The remainder comprises breezeways, terraces, and balconies designed to embrace the island’s subtropical climate.
Entry to the home is via the upper level, as the property tiers down the site with direct access to the beach. The top and lower levels accommodate most of the home’s eight bedrooms, as well as a study and a double garage with buggy parking, the preferred mode of transport throughout the Whitsundays.
The middle level is home to the main kitchen, living, and dining areas, complete with a full butler’s pantry. It opens to a large, L-shaped terrace featuring an outdoor kitchen, alfresco dining and lounge zones, and a sundeck. The terrace flows to the basalt-clad infinity swimming pool, deck, and cabana with integrated seating, as well as a pool house.
Owners or guests of The Residence also have access to the InterContinental Hayman Island Resort facilities, including 24-hour room service, butler assistance, private chefs, and the resort’s wellness centre.
Whitefox agents Cheyne Fox and Nic Whitehead are marketing The Residence as “a rare and extraordinary find.”
“This is more than just a home, it’s an opportunity to own a piece of paradise, a legacy to share with family and friends for generations to come,” Fox said.
The only other private residence on Hayman Island, Hayman House, is also on the market. Commissioned by Terry Peabody, former billionaire and Transpacific Industries founder, Hayman House was first listed last year with hopes of $27 million, later reportedly reduced to $20 million in early 2025.
Designed by Kerry Hill and also built by Hutchies (in 2010), Hayman House shares a similar design ethos to The Residence, albeit on a smaller scale. Its 18-week construction endured three cyclones, with all site access via the beach, which had to be reinforced to prevent heavy vehicles from sinking into the sand.
A 30-metre masterpiece unveiled in Monaco brings Lamborghini’s supercar drama to the high seas, powered by 7,600 horsepower and unmistakable Italian design.
When the Writers Festival was called off and the skies refused to clear, one weekend away turned into a rare lesson in slowing down, ice baths included.
