Melbourne set to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city as property demand surges
Strong population growth, major infrastructure spending and comparatively affordable property are expected to cement Melbourne’s position as Australia’s most attractive long-term real estate market.
2 min
Melbourne is poised to become Australia’s largest city within the next decade, with strong population growth, infrastructure investment and relative affordability driving long-term property demand.
A new research report from Knight Frank argues the Victorian capital remains one of the country’s most compelling markets for investors, businesses and residents.
The report highlights the city’s rapidly expanding population, diverse economy and major infrastructure pipeline as key factors underpinning future property growth.
Knight Frank Managing Director Victoria, Dominic Long, said Melbourne’s fundamentals continue to position the city strongly for long-term investment.
“Melbourne continues to stand out as one of Australia’s most compelling real estate markets,” he said.
“It is Australia’s strongest long-term growth city with the fastest growing population, the most diversified economy, world-class liveability and the most affordable major market for office, industrial and residential property.”
Population growth driving demand
Melbourne’s population has grown at an average rate of 1.8 per cent per year since 2000, faster than any advanced global economy, according to the research.
In the year to June 2025 alone, the city added about 123,500 residents, the largest annual increase of any Australian capital.
Population growth is expected to remain one of the key drivers of demand across residential and commercial property markets, including housing, offices and logistics space.
The report forecasts Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by the 2030s, reinforcing its position as the country’s fastest-growing major city.
Office market offering value
Melbourne’s CBD office market is also attracting renewed attention from investors.
Prime office rents remain significantly lower than in competing cities, with CBD office space about 46 per cent cheaper than Sydney and around 13 per cent cheaper than Brisbane.
That relative affordability is expected to drive long-term demand from occupiers and investors seeking value in Australia’s largest office markets.
The city’s office sector is also showing signs of recovery, with effective rents rising in 2025 and demand increasing for high-quality buildings in premium locations.
Industrial market benefiting from scale
Melbourne’s industrial sector continues to expand, supported by strong population growth, e-commerce demand and the scale of the city’s logistics network.
The city already hosts the country’s largest industrial market, with about 34 million square metres of warehousing stock and significant land available for future development.
Industrial rents remain competitive compared with other capitals, while Melbourne’s port handles the largest container volumes in Australia, further supporting demand for logistics space.
Infrastructure pipeline supporting growth
More than $200 billion in transport infrastructure investment between 2014 and 2036 is also expected to reshape the city and support future property values.
Major projects include the Metro Tunnel, the West Gate Tunnel, the North-East Link and the Suburban Rail Loop, which together will improve connectivity across Melbourne and its growth corridors.
Knight Frank’s Head of Research & Consulting, Victoria, Dr Tony McGough, said these investments would play a key role in supporting the city’s economic expansion.
“Melbourne is Australia’s most economically diverse city and has delivered stable growth for more than two decades,” he said.
“With strong population growth, a highly educated workforce and unprecedented infrastructure investment, Melbourne is well placed to remain one of Australia’s most attractive long-term property markets.”
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Atlas Real Estate is reimagining how people connect with property, combining listings, market insights, local stories and lifestyle content in one destination for those buying, selling or simply exploring the market.
4 min
Property has always been about more than buying and selling. A home can represent a fresh start, a long-term investment, an architectural idea or a connection to a particular neighbourhood. Even when people are not planning a move, many still enjoy following the market, researching local areas and discovering the stories behind remarkable homes.
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It reflects the reality that people approach real estate with different needs and motivations. One visitor might be actively searching for a new home, while another may want to understand recent results in their suburb. Others might be keeping an eye on changing market conditions, exploring an unfamiliar area or simply appreciating thoughtful architecture and premium residential design.
At atlas.com.au, those interests meet in one place. Visitors can browse properties for sale and recent results, while also exploring market insights, featured homes, local stories and introductions to the people behind Atlas. The result is an experience designed to remain relevant before, during and after a traditional property transaction.
“We’re reimagining real estate around how people actually engage with property today — bringing together market insight, exceptional homes, local perspective and lifestyle in a way that feels more relevant and useful,” says Michael Coombs, Director of Atlas Real Estate.
That approach recognises that an interest in property rarely begins on the day someone decides to buy or sell. A future buyer may spend months learning about suburbs, monitoring prices and refining their sense of what they want. A homeowner might follow nearby sales to understand the changing value and character of their area. An investor may be looking for broader market context, while a design enthusiast may be drawn to an exceptional renovation or a distinctive piece of architecture.
By accommodating those different forms of curiosity, Atlas aims to make engaging with real estate feel less transactional and more connected to everyday life. Property is shaped by its surroundings: the streets, businesses, landscapes and people that give a place its identity. Understanding a home therefore means looking beyond its floor plan or sales history to consider the lifestyle and community that come with it.
This broader perspective also gives local stories a meaningful role. Suburbs are constantly evolving, influenced by new businesses, changing demographics, design trends and the people who choose to make them home. Content that explores these forces can help readers build a richer understanding of an area, whether they are preparing to move there or simply want to stay informed about their own neighbourhood.
The same is true of market information. Sales results and property data are most useful when they are accessible and supported by context. Bringing recent results together with insights and local knowledge can help people follow the market on their own terms, without suggesting that every visit must lead immediately to a transaction.
For Atlas, this thinking forms part of “Real Estate, Reimagined”, its broader brand campaign focused on using brand, creativity and technology to deliver a more relevant, useful and human real estate experience. Rather than treating technology as an end in itself, the emphasis is on how it can make property easier and more engaging to explore.
That human focus matters because real estate decisions are often closely tied to significant moments in people’s lives. A move may be connected to a growing family, a new job, a change in lifestyle or a long-held ambition. Even outside those milestones, homes and neighbourhoods remain a source of interest because they reflect how people live and how communities develop.
Atlas’s approach makes room for both the practical and aspirational sides of that interest. Readers can seek out information with a clear goal in mind or browse simply because a property, place or story captures their attention. In either case, they can move easily between homes, results, market perspectives and local inspiration.
The ambition is not to redefine why people care about property, but to reflect the many reasons they already do. By combining useful information with engaging editorial content, Atlas is creating a place for buyers, sellers, homeowners, investors and the property-curious alike.
Whatever brings you to property, discover more at atlas.com.au
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