The ‘new frontier’ in Australian property is not where you think
Buyers are moving there in their droves while existing residents know they’re on a good thing
2 min
The Australian housing market is rapidly evolving, with new research revealing changing activity in regional and city areas.
The latest Regional Movers Index from the Commonwealth Bank showed the exodus from Australian cities to the regions is significantly exceeding pre-COVID movements, sitting at 19.8 percent higher. Even more revealing is data which showed relocations are 1.8 percent up on the average recorded during the height of the lockdowns. At the same time, people in regional areas are staying put.
The report is a partnership between the Commonwealth Bank and the Regional Australian Institute. RAI CEO Liz Ritchie said the regions have become the permanent home of choice for more Australians.
“The inter-regional migration index —which tracks regional to regional relocations — has fallen by 5.1 percent, suggesting that more regional residents are content to stay where they are. With the continuing strong jobs market across regional Australia, increasing city property prices and ongoing cost-of-living pressures, it’s no surprise the regions remain desirable,” Ms Ritchie said.
She said this had significant implications for planners, with a better understanding of infrastructure needs required by planners.
“Regional Australia is truly the nation’s new frontier. There are so many opportunities in our regional communities, but likewise we know there are challenges. Housing for example remains a key ongoing concern in many communities,” she said. “Regional Australia is growing and for that to continue we need adequate foundations. The time to lay them is now.”
Among the areas to benefit from this shift over the past quarter was the Hunter Valley city of Maitland in NSW which saw a 3.4 percent increase in net migration from the cities and other regional areas. Long seen as the less desirable locale in the wine growing region, Maitland has attracted more buyers looking for an affordable home with lifestyle benefits. CBA Executive General Manager Regional and Agribusiness Banking Paul Fowler said it was an area on the rise.
“There is significant development happening around Maitland, with extensive land releases for residential, industrial, commercial and retail fuelling strong employment and construction industry opportunities,” Mr Fowler said.
“Maitland is also set to benefit from major investments in the area including the nearby Newcastle Airport which will welcome international flights from 2025, further enhancing the region’s accessibility and economic profile.”
And while Melbourne property prices continue to experience a lull, it’s a different story outside the capital, with regions closer to main city centres performing particularly well.
“A move to regional Victoria remains on trend among those relocating, with the state’s regional areas experiencing the largest surge in popularity in the 12-month period to September 2024, with its share of net regional inflows rising from 21 percent to 30 percent,” Mt Fowler said. “Trending scenic LGAs like Queenscliffe on the coast, as well as Moira, Wangaratta and Strathbogie located further north, offer attractive and more affordable lifestyle opportunities for many Australians.
“With more corporate employers setting up or relocating to Geelong, Queenscliffe’s proximity to Greater Geelong and the Melbourne CBD means more regional Australians can enjoy diverse employment opportunities while living in a beautiful location with enhanced lifestyle opportunities.”
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The 2026 McGrath Report warns that without urgent reforms to planning, infrastructure and construction, housing affordability will continue to slip beyond reach for most Australians.
3 min
Australia’s housing market has reached a critical juncture, with home ownership and rental affordability deteriorating to their worst levels in decades, according to the McGrath Report 2026.
The annual analysis from real estate entrepreneur John McGrath paints a sobering picture of a nation where even the “lucky country” has run out of luck — or at least, out of homes.
New borrowers are now spending half their household income servicing loans, while renters are devoting one-third of their earnings to rent.
The time needed to save a 20 per cent deposit has stretched beyond ten years, and the home price-to-income ratio has climbed to eight times. “These aren’t just statistics,” McGrath writes. “They represent real people and real pain.”
McGrath argues that the root cause of Australia’s housing crisis is not a shortage of land, but a shortage of accessibility and deliverable stock.
“Over half our population has squeezed into just three cities, creating price pressure and rising density in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane while vast developable land sits disconnected from essential infrastructure,” he says.
The report identifies three faltering pillars — supply, affordability and construction viability — as the drivers of instability in the current market.
Developers across the country, McGrath notes, are “unable to make the numbers work” due to labour shortages and soaring construction costs.
In many trades, shortages have doubled or tripled, and build costs have surged by more than 30 per cent, stalling thousands of projects.
Need for systemic reform
McGrath’s prescription is clear: the only real solution lies in increasing supply through systemic reform. “We need to streamline development processes, reduce approval timeframes and provide better infrastructure to free up the options and provide more choice for everyone on where they live,” he says.
The 2026 edition of the report also points to promising trends in policy and innovation. Across several states, governments are prioritising higher-density development near transport hubs and repurposing government-owned land with existing infrastructure.
Build-to-rent models are expanding, and planning reforms are gaining traction. McGrath notes that while these steps are encouraging, they must be accelerated and supported by new construction methods if Australia is to meet demand.
One of the report’s key opportunities lies in prefabrication and modular design. “Prefabricated homes can be completed in 10–12 weeks compared to 18 months for a traditional house, saving time and money for everyone involved,” McGrath says.
The report suggests that modular and 3D-printed housing could play a significant role in addressing shortages while setting a new global benchmark for speed, cost and quality in residential construction.
Intelligent homes
In a section titled Weathering the Future: The Power of Smart Design, the report emphasises that sustainable and intelligent home design is no longer aspirational but essential.
It highlights new technologies that reduce energy use, improve thermal efficiency, and make homes more resilient to climate risks.
“There’s no reason why Australia shouldn’t be a world leader in innovative design and construction — and many reasons why we should be,” McGrath writes.
Despite the challenges, the tone of the 2026 McGrath Report is one of cautious optimism. Demand is expected to stabilise at around 175,000 households per year from 2026, and construction cost growth is finally slowing. Governments are also showing a greater willingness to reform outdated planning frameworks.
McGrath concludes that the path forward requires bold decisions and collaboration between all levels of government and industry.
“Australia has the land, demand and capability,” he says. “What we need now is the will to implement supply-focused solutions that address root causes rather than symptoms.”
“Only then,” he adds, “can we turn the dream of home ownership back into something more than a dream.”
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