RENTS, LAND VALUES AND DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS AS INDUSTRIAL MARKET STABILISES

Australia’s industrial property market is shifting gears after five years of record-breaking growth in demand, rents and construction.

Vacancy levels have climbed from historic lows, bringing the sector back into more balanced territory, according to Knight Frank’s latest research, From Surge to Stabilisation.

Vacancy rates normalise

Blended vacancy across the East Coast now sits at 3.2 per cent. While still considered tight, that represents a significant change from the 0.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The post-COVID surge in tenant demand had driven unprecedented leasing take-up and fuelled a wave of new construction, but that momentum has since cooled.

The report suggests that effective rental growth will remain subdued in the short term, although the picture is far from uniform. Vacancy is expected to concentrate in emerging precincts with a large pipeline of new projects, while more established markets are likely to prove resilient.

Diverging rental outlook

Sydney’s South West and Outer South, Melbourne’s North and Brisbane’s South and South West are flagged as more exposed, with lower prospects for rental growth. By contrast, Sydney’s Inner South, Melbourne’s South East and East, and Brisbane’s Trade Coast are expected to deliver stronger outcomes thanks to lower construction and tighter vacancy.

Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting, Queensland, Jennelle Wilson, said tenants in some markets will still face higher costs even as more space becomes available.

“It is expected that face rents will be defended with a corresponding increase in incentives to impact effective rents,” she said. “Tenants on leases negotiated prior to 2021 will still face significant rental reversion on renegotiation or relocation, despite having greater choice in the market, to bring them into line with current market rents resulting from significant growth over the boom.”

According to Wilson, prime industrial rents rose by between 30 and 60 per cent on the East Coast over the past three years, underscoring just how intense the recent surge was.

Supply pipeline rebalances

The report found that the supply side will correct relatively quickly, with speculative development slowing and more reliance on pre-commitments. Lower levels of speculative projects and a greater focus on pre-leased space are expected to ease new supply through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

Wilson said occupiers will continue to look for operational efficiency and upgrades. “Over time, there will be a lift in pre-commitment activity as upgrading and unlocking operational efficiency remains key for large occupiers,” she said. “A more conservative development environment will limit speculative supply in 2026, diverting demand back to pre-commitments to tenants seeking a technology and building fabric upgrade.”

She added that the market would increasingly split between businesses willing to pay for high-efficiency, tech-enabled facilities and those seeking to minimise rental costs, even if it means compromising on optimisation.

Land values remain firm

One of the strongest findings from the research is that serviced industrial land values are expected to hold firm, even as demand eases. Over the past five years, land values across the East Coast have climbed sharply — by 46 to 118 per cent for smaller blocks and 46 to 131 per cent for lots of one to five hectares.

While prices have plateaued recently in Sydney and Melbourne, Wilson said the most significant bottleneck has been the time taken to service land.

“In contrast to building construction timeframes, recent years have proven that the timeline for industrial land servicing and development is the most critical step in the development process,” she said. Lessons from markets such as Western Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Melbourne, around the delivery of power and water are expected to continue supporting values.

Looking ahead

The industrial market is settling into a new rhythm. Rental growth will be patchy, depending on location and level of development.

Pre-commitments are expected to dominate new supply, while speculative activity is expected to recede. And despite a cooling in overall tenant demand, the value of well-serviced land is likely to remain robust.

For investors, developers and occupiers alike, the message is clear: the frenzy of the boom years is over, but fundamentals remain strong for quality assets in the right locations.

Is this Whitsunday’s best home?

Hayman Island may have been ravaged by Cyclone Debbie in 2017, which saw the island, one of the smallest of the major Whitsunday islands, all but shut down, but the 390-hectare paradise has made an extraordinary comeback.

The InterContinental brand took over the island’s only resort, which was completely devastated by the Category 4 cyclone. The same year the cyclone hit, The Residence at Hayman was built, one of just two private residences on the island.

Constructed by Hutchinson Builders, a Tier 1 builder better known for delivering some of South East Queensland’s finest multi-residential developments, the lavish home is made from reinforced concrete with a blend of glass and timber battening.

It was designed by the late, internationally renowned architect Kerry Hill, widely regarded as a key figure in refining tropical modernist architecture. Hill was an island specialist, having designed several major resorts in Bali.

The Residence at Hayman spans three levels and offers over 1,400 sqm of living space, including around 580 sqm of internal living areas. The remainder comprises breezeways, terraces, and balconies designed to embrace the island’s subtropical climate.

Entry to the home is via the upper level, as the property tiers down the site with direct access to the beach. The top and lower levels accommodate most of the home’s eight bedrooms, as well as a study and a double garage with buggy parking, the preferred mode of transport throughout the Whitsundays.

The middle level is home to the main kitchen, living, and dining areas, complete with a full butler’s pantry. It opens to a large, L-shaped terrace featuring an outdoor kitchen, alfresco dining and lounge zones, and a sundeck. The terrace flows to the basalt-clad infinity swimming pool, deck, and cabana with integrated seating, as well as a pool house.

Owners or guests of The Residence also have access to the InterContinental Hayman Island Resort facilities, including 24-hour room service, butler assistance, private chefs, and the resort’s wellness centre.

Whitefox agents Cheyne Fox and Nic Whitehead are marketing The Residence as “a rare and extraordinary find.”

“This is more than just a home, it’s an opportunity to own a piece of paradise, a legacy to share with family and friends for generations to come,” Fox said.

The only other private residence on Hayman Island, Hayman House, is also on the market. Commissioned by Terry Peabody, former billionaire and Transpacific Industries founder, Hayman House was first listed last year with hopes of $27 million, later reportedly reduced to $20 million in early 2025.

Designed by Kerry Hill and also built by Hutchies (in 2010), Hayman House shares a similar design ethos to The Residence, albeit on a smaller scale. Its 18-week construction endured three cyclones, with all site access via the beach, which had to be reinforced to prevent heavy vehicles from sinking into the sand.