RENTS, LAND VALUES AND DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS AS INDUSTRIAL MARKET STABILISES

Australia’s industrial property market is shifting gears after five years of record-breaking growth in demand, rents and construction.

Vacancy levels have climbed from historic lows, bringing the sector back into more balanced territory, according to Knight Frank’s latest research, From Surge to Stabilisation.

Vacancy rates normalise

Blended vacancy across the East Coast now sits at 3.2 per cent. While still considered tight, that represents a significant change from the 0.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The post-COVID surge in tenant demand had driven unprecedented leasing take-up and fuelled a wave of new construction, but that momentum has since cooled.

The report suggests that effective rental growth will remain subdued in the short term, although the picture is far from uniform. Vacancy is expected to concentrate in emerging precincts with a large pipeline of new projects, while more established markets are likely to prove resilient.

Diverging rental outlook

Sydney’s South West and Outer South, Melbourne’s North and Brisbane’s South and South West are flagged as more exposed, with lower prospects for rental growth. By contrast, Sydney’s Inner South, Melbourne’s South East and East, and Brisbane’s Trade Coast are expected to deliver stronger outcomes thanks to lower construction and tighter vacancy.

Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting, Queensland, Jennelle Wilson, said tenants in some markets will still face higher costs even as more space becomes available.

“It is expected that face rents will be defended with a corresponding increase in incentives to impact effective rents,” she said. “Tenants on leases negotiated prior to 2021 will still face significant rental reversion on renegotiation or relocation, despite having greater choice in the market, to bring them into line with current market rents resulting from significant growth over the boom.”

According to Wilson, prime industrial rents rose by between 30 and 60 per cent on the East Coast over the past three years, underscoring just how intense the recent surge was.

Supply pipeline rebalances

The report found that the supply side will correct relatively quickly, with speculative development slowing and more reliance on pre-commitments. Lower levels of speculative projects and a greater focus on pre-leased space are expected to ease new supply through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

Wilson said occupiers will continue to look for operational efficiency and upgrades. “Over time, there will be a lift in pre-commitment activity as upgrading and unlocking operational efficiency remains key for large occupiers,” she said. “A more conservative development environment will limit speculative supply in 2026, diverting demand back to pre-commitments to tenants seeking a technology and building fabric upgrade.”

She added that the market would increasingly split between businesses willing to pay for high-efficiency, tech-enabled facilities and those seeking to minimise rental costs, even if it means compromising on optimisation.

Land values remain firm

One of the strongest findings from the research is that serviced industrial land values are expected to hold firm, even as demand eases. Over the past five years, land values across the East Coast have climbed sharply — by 46 to 118 per cent for smaller blocks and 46 to 131 per cent for lots of one to five hectares.

While prices have plateaued recently in Sydney and Melbourne, Wilson said the most significant bottleneck has been the time taken to service land.

“In contrast to building construction timeframes, recent years have proven that the timeline for industrial land servicing and development is the most critical step in the development process,” she said. Lessons from markets such as Western Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Melbourne, around the delivery of power and water are expected to continue supporting values.

Looking ahead

The industrial market is settling into a new rhythm. Rental growth will be patchy, depending on location and level of development.

Pre-commitments are expected to dominate new supply, while speculative activity is expected to recede. And despite a cooling in overall tenant demand, the value of well-serviced land is likely to remain robust.

For investors, developers and occupiers alike, the message is clear: the frenzy of the boom years is over, but fundamentals remain strong for quality assets in the right locations.

Australia’s housing market has lost momentum, with Cotality’s latest Home Value Index revealing national dwelling values were flat in May as affordability constraints, higher borrowing costs and weakening buyer sentiment continue to weigh on demand.

The national result masks increasingly divergent conditions across the country.

Sydney and Melbourne led the decline, with dwelling values falling 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively over the month.

Sydney values are now 2.1 per cent below their November 2025 peak, while Melbourne values sit 3.2 per cent below their March 2022 high.

In contrast, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continued to record growth, although even the stronger-performing markets are beginning to show signs of slowing.

Perth again led the capitals, recording monthly growth of 1.5 per cent and annual growth of 25.8 per cent. Brisbane values increased 0.9 per cent in May and are now 19.1 per cent higher than a year ago, while Adelaide recorded a 0.5 per cent monthly rise and annua growth of 12.3 per cent.

Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said Australia’s housing market continues to operate at vastly different speeds depending on location.

“We are continuing to see multi-speed conditions across Australia’s housing sector, with Perth and Melbourne at opposite ends of the spectrum,” Lawless said.

“The past five years have seen these cities diverge sharply, with Perth values up a stunning 91.4 per cent while Melbourne home values are only 3.3 per cent higher since May 2021.”

Lawless said while the pace of value growth remains highly varied between cities, a common trend is emerging.

“While the speed of value change remains very different from city to city, the direction is becoming more consistent, with most markets losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify.”

The slowdown is becoming increasingly evident in transaction activity.

National home sales over the past three months were estimated to be 2.2 per cent lower than a year ago and 4.1 per cent below the five-year average.

Sydney and Melbourne recorded the sharpest declines in sales activity, down 17.0 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively compared to the same period last year.

Lawless said higher listing volumes are shifting negotiating power back towards buyers.

“These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers,” he said.

The softer conditions come despite ongoing supply constraints across much of the country. Construction costs remain elevated and feasibility challenges continue to limit new housing delivery, even as governments in NSW and Victoria continue to implement planning reforms designed to accelerate approvals and increase apartment supply.

For the new apartment sector, the data highlights an increasingly important divide between established housing markets and the off-the-plan market.

While detached housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne continue to soften, the supply of new apartments remains well below the levels required to meet population growth and federal housing targets.

This imbalance is likely to continue supporting demand for new apartment stock, particularly in major urban centres where affordability pressures are forcing more buyers towards higher-density housing options.

The latest rental figures also reinforce the underlying strength of housing demand.

National rents increased another 0.6 per cent in May, taking annual rental growth to 5.9 per cent. Vacancy rates remain at just 1.5 per cent nationally, matching the record lows experienced during the post-pandemic migration surge.

Lawless said renters are increasingly reaching affordability limits.

“With renters dedicating around a third of their pre-tax income to rental payments, it’s uncertain how much longer this upswing in rents can last,” he said.

The housing slowdown is unfolding against a backdrop of improving inflation data and growing confidence that interest rates will remain on hold when the Reserve Bank meets in June.

Australia’s monthly inflation indicator has continued to trend lower in recent months, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA is unlikely to lift the cash rate again in the near term.

Financial markets and economists have increasingly shifted their focus towards the timing of future rate cuts rather than the prospect of further tightening.

While the RBA remains cautious about services inflation and housing-related costs, recent inflation outcomes have largely eased concerns that another rate rise would be required.

That is providing some support to housing sentiment, although affordability and borrowing capacity remain significant constraints.

For now, Cotality’s data suggests the housing market is entering a more subdued phase rather than facing a sharp correction.

Affordability pressures, weaker confidence and slower sales activity are weighing on demand, while population growth, tight rental markets and constrained housing supply continue to provide a floor underneath values.

The result is a housing market that remains highly fragmented, with Sydney and Melbourne continuing to cool, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain in growth mode, albeit at a slower pace than seen over the past two years.