Why Commercial Property Isn’t Following the Residential Market

For months, Australia’s property conversation has centred on falling house prices, higher interest rates and the impact of the Federal Budget on investors.

But according to Melbourne buyers’ advocate Abdullah Nouh, many investors expecting commercial property to follow the same path are overlooking what’s actually happening across the market.

“The biggest mistake investors are making is treating commercial property as one market that moves in one direction at one time,” Nouh says.

“Office towers, neighbourhood medical centres, industrial warehouses and childcare centres all respond to completely different supply and demand dynamics.”

Rather than experiencing a broad downturn, he says that parts of the commercial market continue to perform strongly, particularly sectors supported by essential services and with limited new supply.

Neighbourhood retail centres anchored by supermarkets and medical services have proven more resilient than many expected, while industrial property continues to benefit from tight supply in most major cities.

Medical centres, childcare assets and other essential service properties are also attracting sustained tenant demand despite higher borrowing costs.

Office markets, however, are telling a different story.

Premium buildings in well-connected locations are beginning to stabilise, Nouh says, while secondary office stock in oversupplied precincts continues to face pressure.

“This isn’t a story about commercial property going up or going down,” he says.

“It’s a story about asset selection mattering more than the headlines.”

The changing market is also altering the questions investors are asking.

Rather than focusing solely on buying another residential investment property, Nouh says more investors are now looking for higher rental income and improved cash flow.

“Instead of asking how to buy another investment property, investors are increasingly asking how they can generate more income from their portfolio,” he says.

He believes commercial property has become part of that conversation because it can deliver stronger rental returns while still offering long-term capital growth when quality assets are selected carefully.

However, Nouh warns investors against assuming every commercial property represents a sound investment simply because it offers a higher yield.

“I’ve seen commercial properties remain vacant for years because they’re in locations with weak business activity,” he says.

“A high yield isn’t necessarily evidence of a good investment. Sometimes it’s evidence of the opposite.”

Instead, he says investors should focus on the same fundamentals that have always underpinned successful commercial acquisitions, including tenant demand, constrained future supply, location quality and whether another tenant would readily occupy the property if the existing lease expired.

“The lease and the tenant both matter,” Nouh says.

“But neither replaces buying a quality asset in a quality location.”

As investors continue to assess the outlook for property following this year’s Budget changes, Nouh believes the biggest opportunity may lie in recognising that commercial property is not a single market.

“Property has never moved as one market,” he says.

“The better question isn’t whether commercial property will fall in the short term. It’s which assets are likely to be in greater demand over the next decade, and whether today’s market creates an opportunity that looks obvious in hindsight.”