Australian housing values finish the year on a low
It’s the greatest decline in housing values since the GFC
2 min
Australian housing values experienced their greatest falls in 2022 since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, CoreLogic data released today reveals.
After the monthly rate of decline moderated through September and November, values dropped a further -1.1 percent in December to record a -5.3 percent drop over the calendar year. It’s the biggest drop since 2008, when values were down -6.4 percent. The falls were greatest in Sydney, where values fell by -12.1 percent, followed by Melbourne at -8.1 percent and Hobart at -6.9 percent. The ACT also recorded a decline in values of -3.3 percent, while in Brisbane it was -1.1 percent.
However, values increased in other capitals, with Adelaide seeing a rise of 10.1 percent. Gains were more modest in Darwin at 4.3 percent and Perth at 3.6 percent.
After steady growth at the start of 2022, the downturn in housing values closely aligned with eight consecutive interest rate rises announced by the RBA since May.
“Our daily index series saw national home values peak on May 7, shortly after the cash rate moved off emergency lows,” said Corelogic’s research director, Tim Lawless. “Since then, CoreLogic’s national index has fallen -8.2 percent, following a dramatic 28.9 percent rise in values through the upswing.”
Predictably, the most significant falls were at the highest end of the market.
“The more expensive end of the market tends to lead the cycles, both through the upswing and the downturn,” Mr Lawless said. “Importantly, recent months have seen some cities recording less of a performance gap between the broad value-based cohorts.
“Sydney is a good example, where upper quartile house values actually fell at a slower pace than values across the lower quartile and broad middle of the market through the final quarter of the year.”
Despite the downturn in many parts of the country, CoreLogic reports that housing values still remain 11.7 percent higher in the combined capitals and 32.2 percent higher in the combined regional areas than they were pre pandemic.
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Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.
3 min
Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.
Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.
Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.
“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.
“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”
Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.
Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.
“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.
Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.
He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.
“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.
“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”
Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.
He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.
McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.
While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.
“People are looking for value for money,” she said.
She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.
“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.
The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.
“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.
He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.
While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.
“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.
Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.
Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.
McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.
Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.
“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.
“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”
As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.
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