RENTS, LAND VALUES AND DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS AS INDUSTRIAL MARKET STABILISES

Australia’s industrial property market is shifting gears after five years of record-breaking growth in demand, rents and construction.

Vacancy levels have climbed from historic lows, bringing the sector back into more balanced territory, according to Knight Frank’s latest research, From Surge to Stabilisation.

Vacancy rates normalise

Blended vacancy across the East Coast now sits at 3.2 per cent. While still considered tight, that represents a significant change from the 0.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The post-COVID surge in tenant demand had driven unprecedented leasing take-up and fuelled a wave of new construction, but that momentum has since cooled.

The report suggests that effective rental growth will remain subdued in the short term, although the picture is far from uniform. Vacancy is expected to concentrate in emerging precincts with a large pipeline of new projects, while more established markets are likely to prove resilient.

Diverging rental outlook

Sydney’s South West and Outer South, Melbourne’s North and Brisbane’s South and South West are flagged as more exposed, with lower prospects for rental growth. By contrast, Sydney’s Inner South, Melbourne’s South East and East, and Brisbane’s Trade Coast are expected to deliver stronger outcomes thanks to lower construction and tighter vacancy.

Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting, Queensland, Jennelle Wilson, said tenants in some markets will still face higher costs even as more space becomes available.

“It is expected that face rents will be defended with a corresponding increase in incentives to impact effective rents,” she said. “Tenants on leases negotiated prior to 2021 will still face significant rental reversion on renegotiation or relocation, despite having greater choice in the market, to bring them into line with current market rents resulting from significant growth over the boom.”

According to Wilson, prime industrial rents rose by between 30 and 60 per cent on the East Coast over the past three years, underscoring just how intense the recent surge was.

Supply pipeline rebalances

The report found that the supply side will correct relatively quickly, with speculative development slowing and more reliance on pre-commitments. Lower levels of speculative projects and a greater focus on pre-leased space are expected to ease new supply through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

Wilson said occupiers will continue to look for operational efficiency and upgrades. “Over time, there will be a lift in pre-commitment activity as upgrading and unlocking operational efficiency remains key for large occupiers,” she said. “A more conservative development environment will limit speculative supply in 2026, diverting demand back to pre-commitments to tenants seeking a technology and building fabric upgrade.”

She added that the market would increasingly split between businesses willing to pay for high-efficiency, tech-enabled facilities and those seeking to minimise rental costs, even if it means compromising on optimisation.

Land values remain firm

One of the strongest findings from the research is that serviced industrial land values are expected to hold firm, even as demand eases. Over the past five years, land values across the East Coast have climbed sharply — by 46 to 118 per cent for smaller blocks and 46 to 131 per cent for lots of one to five hectares.

While prices have plateaued recently in Sydney and Melbourne, Wilson said the most significant bottleneck has been the time taken to service land.

“In contrast to building construction timeframes, recent years have proven that the timeline for industrial land servicing and development is the most critical step in the development process,” she said. Lessons from markets such as Western Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Melbourne, around the delivery of power and water are expected to continue supporting values.

Looking ahead

The industrial market is settling into a new rhythm. Rental growth will be patchy, depending on location and level of development.

Pre-commitments are expected to dominate new supply, while speculative activity is expected to recede. And despite a cooling in overall tenant demand, the value of well-serviced land is likely to remain robust.

For investors, developers and occupiers alike, the message is clear: the frenzy of the boom years is over, but fundamentals remain strong for quality assets in the right locations.

In Sydney’s Northern Beaches, there are plenty of homes with a multimillion-dollar view and an enviable position close to the sand.

This unique listing has all that, but it has also earned its page in the local history books.

After 50 years in the same hands, The Palladium in Palm Beach—once a famed dance hall, then a restaurant, a private residence, and an artists’ studio—is now back on the market with a price hopes of $13.5 million through BJ Edwards and David Edwards of LJ Hooker Palm Beach.

Positioned in a rare corner spot where Ocean Rd meets Palm Beach Rd, The Palladium has been front and centre observing the famous sandy stretch for almost a century.

Built in the early 1930s, the Art Deco building was originally conceived as a vibrant community dance hall; the “it” place to be for young folk during Sydney’s thriving interwar period.

Often the dances were held to raise money for the Palm Beach Surf Life Saving Club, and newspaper reports of the time told of rowdy parties lasting until the early hours, bootleg liquor arrests, and where shorts and sandals—or even pyjamas—were scandalously worn by “both sexes”.

Over the decades, The Palladium has worn many hats.

By 1943, the original owner, Joseph Henry Graham, had defaulted on his loan, and a mortgagee sale reportedly sold the building for £1550, which translates to about $137,000 today. It later became a dining space and a general store run by the Milton family. In the 1960s and early 1970s, the property was also home to the Blue Pacific Restaurant.

The current owners acquired the keys in 1976 when it began its next chapter as a creative hub. One of today’s vendors, filmmaker David Elfick, who has been a filmmaker and producer on such films as Newsfront and Rabbit-Proof Fence, has told stories of a free-spirited creative hub that has been used for film sets, to store numerous movie props, as editing rooms, to hold countless parties and has even hosted visiting members of the Royal Shakespeare Company.

From its famed beachside soirees to its grassroots film club nights, the venue has become woven into the cultural fabric of Palm Beach.

Today, that rich history has been reimagined into a coastal home that honours its past while embracing contemporary beachside living.

Built in a unique architectural style known as streamline moderne, the aeroplane hangar-like building reflects the era’s fascination with air travel, mass transport, and modernity. The facade is defined by a sweeping curved roofline and subtle nautical cues.

The main residence features a vast central living space framed by a number of bedrooms and sunrooms, as well as a front dining room and kitchen. In total, there are four to five bedrooms, three bathrooms and a powder room adjoining an upstairs loft space.

Big, broad windows draw in loads of natural light and provide iconic views, plus the sounds of the beach just across the road.

Many of the original elements remain, most fittingly the polished floors of the former dance hall. In the additional building at the back of the block, there is a separate, self-contained studio with its own bedroom, bathroom, kitchen and laundry. From its elevated deck, the outlook stretches across the full sweep of Palm Beach.

Outside, the expansive 1151sq m land parcel also features established gardens with veggie patches and standalone decks for quiet contemplation.

Sitting just across the road from the beach, the property is also within walking distance of local cafes and the surf club. Palm Beach Rock Pool is at one end of the beach, with the Palm Beach Golf Club and the water airport at the other end of the peninsula.

The Palladium and Palm Beach Studio at 16 Ocean Rd, Palm Beach are listed with BJ Edwards and David Edwards of LJ Hooker Palm Beach via a private treaty campaign with a price guide of $13.5 million.