Retail Sales Are the Last Big Economic News Before Fed Rate Decision

Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.

The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.

Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.

A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.

Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.

Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .

Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.

Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.

The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.

The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.

Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.

Italian fine wines are gaining momentum among Australian collectors and drinkers, with new data from showing a surge in interest driven by value, versatility and a new generation of producers.

Long dominated by France, the premium wine conversation is beginning to shift, with Italy increasingly positioned as a compelling alternative for both drinking and collecting.

According to Langtons, the category is benefiting from a combination of factors, including its breadth of styles, strong food affinity and more accessible price points compared to traditional European benchmarks.

“Italy has always offered fine wine fans an incredible range of wines with finesse, nuance, expression of terroir, ageability, rarity, and heritage,” said Langtons General Manager Tamara Grischy.

“There’s no doubt the Italian wine category is gaining momentum in 2026… While the French have long dominated the fine wine space in Australia, we’re seeing Italy become a strong contender as the go-to for both drinking and collecting.”

The shift is being reinforced by changing consumer preferences, with Langtons reporting increased demand for indigenous Italian varieties and lighter, food-first styles such as Nerello Mascalese from Etna and modern Chianti Classico.

This aligns with the broader rise of Mediterranean-style dining in Australia, where wines are expected to complement a wider range of dishes rather than dominate them.

Langtons buyer Zach Nelson said the category’s versatility is central to its appeal.

“Italian wines often have a distinct, savoury edge making them an ideal pairing for a variety of cuisines,” he said.

The move towards Italian wines also comes as prices for traditional French regions continue to climb, particularly in Burgundy, prompting collectors to look elsewhere for value without compromising on quality.

Italy’s key regions, including Piedmont and Etna, are increasingly seen as offering that balance, with premium wines available at comparatively accessible price points.

Nelson said value is now a defining factor for buyers in 2026.

“Value is the key driver for Australian fine wine consumers… Italian wines are offering exactly that at an impressive array of price points to suit any budget,” he said.

The category is also proving attractive for newer collectors, offering what Langtons describes as “accessible prestige” and a more open entry point compared to the exclusivity often associated with Bordeaux.

Wines such as Brunello di Montalcino and Nebbiolo-based expressions are increasingly being positioned as entry points into cellar-worthy collections, combining ageability with relative affordability.

At the same time, a new generation of Italian producers is reshaping the category, moving away from heavier, oak-driven styles towards wines that emphasise site expression and vibrancy.

“There’s definitely a ‘new guard’ of Italian winemaking… stripping away the makeup… to let the raw, vibrating energy of the site speak,” Nelson said.

Langtons is also expanding its offering in the category, including exclusive access to wines from family-owned producer Boroli, alongside a broader selection spanning Piedmont, Veneto, Sicily and Tuscany.

The company will showcase the category further at its upcoming Italian Collection Masterclass and Tasting in Sydney, featuring more than 50 wines from 23 producers across four key regions.

For collectors and drinkers alike, the message is clear: Italy may have been overlooked, but it is no longer under the radar.

Retail Sales Are the Last Big Economic News Before Fed Rate Decision

Italian wines are emerging as a serious contender for Australian collectors, offering depth, rarity and value as French benchmarks continue to climb.