Canadian Property Market Hurt by Tariff Concerns

OTTAWA–The nascent recovery in Canada’s housing market has become a casualty of the trade dispute with the U.S.

The latest national home-resale data are due out Tuesday, but early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month as many prospective buyers exercised caution.

The recent weakness in home sales has dimmed the previously brighter outlook for the property market coming into 2025, when buyers were encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate cuts.

“The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier,” said Robert Hogue , assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Hogue said resales are down materially in a number of markets two months running, and home prices in several markets are coming under pressure as inventories rise. And although Canada was spared additional levies when President Trump unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries earlier this month, no meaningful rebound is likely so long as trade uncertainty lingers, he said.

Home buyers in Toronto, Canada’s most populous city and the country’s financial hub, aren’t turning up for the usual spring pickup in property-market activity.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area slumped 23.1% in March from a year earlier, as new listings for the region jumped close to 29%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That marked the worst month of resales since 1998.

The board’s chief information officer, Jason Mercer , said many potential home buyers were likely taking a wait-and-see approach given the economic worries as well as a pending federal election. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he said, adding that ownership has become more affordable and prices in the area fell about 3.8% year on year in March.

Uncertainty is also weighing on the housing market in Calgary, the biggest city in oil-rich Alberta. The city’s real-estate board said realtors reported a 19% drop in sales of existing homes from last year, with a similar trend of improving supply and a sharp increase in the average number of days that homes were on the market.

On the West Coast, home sales registered in the metro Vancouver area of British Columbia were the lowest for March since 2019, falling 13.4% on a year earlier and coming in close to 37% below the 10-year seasonal average, while active listings continued to rise.

There are some areas of resilience. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said total sales in the province were up 9% year on year in March. Still, RBC’s Hogue estimated Montreal sales in March were down about 15% from December seasonally adjusted, effectively rolling back the advance since the end of last summer.

The most recent national data for the country, from the Canadian Real Estate Association, showed resales dropped 9.8% month over month in February, when homebuyers may also have been put off by harsh winter storms in parts of the country. That marked the sharpest fall since May 2022 and brought the level of sales to their lowest level since November 2023, snapping signs that activity had been picking up in recent months.

Rishi Sondhi , an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a recent report estimated the country was tracking toward a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single-digit drop in Canadian average home prices for the first three months of 2025. That is much weaker than a pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December that projected a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest gain in sales and prices.

Central-bank officials are set to decide Wednesday on monetary policy, but they have signaled a cautious approach to rates as they balance the prospect of tariffs stoking price pressures against the likelihood that they will dampen demand and weigh on the economy. That could mean the Bank of Canada will pause after seven straight cuts to its policy rate.

Housing is a hot topic for party leaders campaigning ahead of the April 28 election, with both the incumbent Liberal Party and opposition Conservatives proposing tax cuts and incentives to encourage buyers and builders.

The outlook for new homes has also dimmed with the tariff threat. The value of residential-building permits issued in February fell 2.9% from a month prior, adding to a retreat in January that took back some of the surge in intentions in the final month of last year, Statistics Canada data last week showed.

Sydney is well and truly on the world map when it comes to luxury residential property, rivalling—and even beating—the likes of Tokyo and Dubai in terms of price per square metre.

The harbour capital has also proven itself to be a powerhouse for luxury residential rental growth. Knight Frank’s Prime Global Rental Index Q4 2024 showed prime rents across Sydney grew 4.7 per cent over 2024, the fifth-highest growth globally.

This has pushed several of Sydney’s top suburbs over the $2,000 per week median rent mark for a house, with surrounding areas fast approaching the milestone.

We’ve wrapped up the most expensive suburbs to live in across Sydney, with data sourced from property data analytics firm CoreLogic.

1. Vaucluse: Median purchase: $8.69m; Median rent: $2,198

Vaucluse has consistently ranked as Sydney’s most expensive suburb for rental properties over the past few years, even with annual rents contracting by over 14 per cent. What sets it apart is its unique geography—it’s the only suburb in the Eastern Suburbs that stretches from the harbour to the ocean. Homes in Vaucluse top the price charts because most either boast Sydney Harbour views or enjoy uninterrupted outlooks over the Pacific Ocean.

The Neighbourhood

While most Eastern Suburbs have one main beach, Vaucluse is dotted with several secluded spots, such as Parsley Bay, Milk Beach, and the recently reopened Shark Beach, which had been closed for several years due to retaining wall repairs.

2. Dover Heights: Median purchase: $6.38m; Median rent: $2,024

Vaucluse’s immediate southern neighbour, Dover Heights, is the only other suburb in Sydney with a median house rental over $2,000. Dover Heights hugs the cliffs and is well known as one of the most tightly held house markets in the Eastern Suburbs. The homes are perched on the cliffside, and the majority of houses in the area have at least four bedrooms, pushing up prices.

The Neighbourhood

While there are no beaches to speak of, its elevated position provides some of the highest views of Sydney Harbour. It is also home to the Federation Cliff Walk, a five-kilometre clifftop walk with postcard views of the Pacific Ocean from Dover Heights to Watsons Bay.

3. Bronte: Median purchase: $5.64m, Median rent: $1,963

Bronte takes out the title of the most expensive of the ‘typical’ Eastern Suburbs beachside suburbs. Just 30 per cent of homes in Bronte are separate houses, with nearly half being apartments. Houses in the rental pool are typically original homes dating back to the 1960s that have been renovated over the last decade or so.

The Neighbourhood
Bronte has long been a favourite due to its more relaxed beachside lifestyle compared to the busier Bondi, although Bronte is no longer a ‘hidden gem’ anymore. It offers numerous lifestyle perks, from a small high street lined with shops and cafés to several eateries located by the beach, which also features one of the best natural ocean pools in the Eastern Suburbs.

4. North Bondi: Median purchase: $4.81m; Median rent: $1,932

North Bondi has become a hotbed of new homes, with frequent sales of either original houses or older apartment complexes being bought to be demolished and replaced by brand-new contemporary builds. There’s a mix of original cottages and new homes in the rental pool, the latter fetching over $7,000 a week.

The Neighbourhood
North Bondi is situated in a small pocket, just south of Dover Heights and north of Bondi Beach. Starting at the Ben Buckler Peninsula, near where Campbell Parade transitions into Military Road, North Bondi is one of the most secluded areas on the coastline, with Hastings Parade, Brighton Boulevard, and Ramsgate Avenue all offering a southward view over the sand.

5. Balgowlah Heights: Median purchase: $4.13m; Median rent: $1,930

Balgowlah Heights is the most expensive suburb to rent a house in the Northern Beaches. Land sizes tend to be much larger, and you get more for your money in the area compared to the East.

The Neighbourhood
Balgowlah Heights is the harbourside southern neighbour of Balgowlah. The Sydney Harbour National Park occupies half of the leafy suburb, part of the Manly to Spit Bridge Walk, and is home to Tania Park, with a children’s playground and sporting facilities overlooking Manly Cove. Nestled on the northern shores of Sydney Harbour, it offers a serene and leafy environment.

6. Bellevue Hill: Median purchase: $10.63m; Median rent: $1,917

Bellevue Hill stands as one of Sydney’s most prestigious suburbs and has some of the largest houses by median land size.

Given the large gap between median purchase price and median rental price, it is no wonder renters want to live among $10m homes and pay under $2,000 a week, when a $10m purchase means $2m deposit, over $500k in stamp duty, and roughly $12,000 a week in repayments.

Most mansions will never make it to public rental sites and are often snapped up by Hollywood stars, musicians, or even royalty when they visit Australia.

The Neighbourhood
One of the biggest drawcards for those living in Bellevue Hill is the proximity to two of the country’s top schools. While there are no catchment areas for private schools, Cranbrook School and Scots College will always draw affluent families to the suburb. Scots fees start at around $30,000 per annum from Year One and reach nearly $50,000 by Year 12.

Sydney’s Cheapest Suburb: Tregear; Median purchase: $782,000; Median rent: $544

The cheapest suburb to rent in Sydney is Tregear, located on the outskirts of Mt Druitt, approximately 50 km west of the CBD. The median house rental is $544, which is four times cheaper than renting a house in Vaucluse. The median house price in Tregear is $782,000, around 12 times less than Vaucluse.

Sydney’s Best Suburb: Point Piper

If money were no object, it’s hard to look past Sydney’s most affluent suburb as the top pick for the best place to live in the city, in my opinion.

It doesn’t even have an actual median house price, simply because so few properties change hands. Last year, just five houses sold, ranging from $8 million to $51.5 million. Homes on the best streets offer gun-barrel views of the Harbour Bridge and the Opera House, while the cosmopolitan Double Bay next door provides all the lifestyle conveniences.