China’s Ghost Cities Are a Problem for Europe’s Luxury Brands, Too
Chinese consumers watching the value of their homes fall are losing the confidence to spend on designer goods
Chinese consumers watching the value of their homes fall are losing the confidence to spend on designer goods
How closely is demand for $3,000 handbags tied to home prices in China? Quite closely, it turns out, which is unfortunate for luxury brands.
Europe’s luxury stocks fell in early trading Tuesday after China’s economic planning agency failed to announce additional measures to kickstart growth that some investors had hoped for. The sector is still up 10% on average since Beijing launched its initial stimulus plans late last month.
Beijing hopes a cut to mortgage rates, and lower down-payment requirements for buyers of second homes, will jump-start the country’s troubled housing market. A package of loans to brokers and insurers to buy Chinese shares has had initial success at lifting the stock market.
Luxury spending in China has traditionally been more correlated with its home prices than with the financial markets or overall economic growth. Around 60% of net household wealth was tied up in property before prices peaked in 2021. Barclays estimates that falling home prices have destroyed about $18 trillion in household wealth since then, which is equivalent to roughly $60,000 per family.
This, along with worries about the wider economy, is hurting consumer confidence. Retail sales rose just 2.1% in August compared with the same month last year, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. When global luxury brands start to report their third-quarter results next week, Chinese demand is expected to have slowed since they last updated investors.
Flagging sales come at an unhelpful time for Europe’s luxury companies, which rely on Chinese consumers for a third of global luxury spending. After several bumpy years during the pandemic, luxury brands and their investors hoped that a comeback in Chinese spending would compensate for a slowdown among Europeans and Americans.
This looks increasingly unlikely. Luxury sales to Chinese shoppers are expected to shrink 7% in 2024 and by 3% next year, according to UBS estimates. As luxury brands have high fixed costs, including the most expensive retail rents in the world, a slowdown with such key customers could have an outsize impact on profit margins.
The last time the luxury industry went through such a rocky patch in China, barring the pandemic, was between 2014 and 2016 when Beijing was cracking down on corruption, including officials who were gifting Louis Vuitton handbags and Rolex watches in exchange for political favours. The global luxury industry barely grew for two years during China’s anticorruption drive, which also coincided with a property-market correction in the country. It didn’t help that shoppers in other markets were also tiring of logos back then.
Europe’s luxury stocks look expensive today compared with that time. As a multiple of expected earnings, listed brands’ shares now trade at a roughly 40% premium to their 2014 to 2016 average.
To justify the higher price tag, Beijing’s housing and wider economic stimulus would need to indirectly lift luxury demand. Measures rolled out so far may not be enough to slow the slide in home prices. China’s housing market is oversupplied by around 60 million units, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.
New incentives to kick-start consumption are expected soon but will probably target mass-market products like white goods. China already rolled out trade-in subsidies for home appliances earlier this year and a range of consumption coupons.
None of this is very helpful for sellers of expensive luxury goods. For brands to see a recovery, Chinese consumers that spend anywhere from $7,000 to $43,000 a year on luxury products would need to feel much better about their finances than they currently do. Spending by this group has fallen 17% so far this year compared with the same period of 2023, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group.
Half-finished, abandoned housing estates are a big headache for China’s government, and are also on the mind of executives in Paris and Milan. Though the fortunes of luxury bosses likely isn’t high on Chinese officials’ priority list, their fates may be intertwined.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
Spring Hill Enviro-Cottage is the ultimate fairytale of old meets new, an architectural marriage of two distinctly different eras that seamlessly come together in 21st-century Brisbane.
The Isaac Street home is one of Spring Hill’s original workers’ cottages that in 2010 was expertly transformed into a uniquely sustainable home with all the modern-day must-haves and plenty of boxes ticked on the wish list too.
While preserving the classic Queenslander, the 286sqm property has been reimagined to deliver an innovative and eco-friendly address.
Kitchen joinery has been crafted from reclaimed timber, there is environmentally friendly paint, a suite of energy efficient appliances, solar power, underground water storage, and an Eco Plunge Pool.
Although the charming period facade remains, the rear of the house has an ultra contemporary backdrop of patterned Corten steel privacy screens that minimise heat and create dappled light across the interior spaces. At night, the unique partition’s geometric laser-cut design provides a star-like feature in the main bedroom suite.
The considered passive design principles extend to the strategically located louvres, doors and windows that draw in cooling breezes, while a vast skylight over the dining area and kitchen allows for plenty of natural light in winter. Burnished concrete floors keep the ground cool and grand walls of glass peel back to reveal a seamless flow to the outdoors with a grassed and landscaped private courtyard.
Although the ground floor has been designed for everyday living and entertaining, the multi-purpose front room with ensuite is an ideal guest retreat or even a perfect ‘work from home’ space complete with a separate entry via the front patio.
Upstairs, a mezzanine lounge provides another breakout area for families, and the two first floor bedrooms open out to the traditional full-width balcony overlooking the street. These bedrooms have built-in wardrobes and desks with a shared family-friendly bathroom.
At the rear of the footprint, a freestanding two-storey pavilion features yet another living space next to the pool with an integrated bar. Above the space the top floor main bedroom has an ensuite and walk-through wardrobe.
A long list of bonus features include ceiling fans in all bedrooms and living areas, a thermostat-controlled whirlybird to extract excess heat, a 5kW solar system with a SMA Sunny Boy inverter, a 20,000L rainwater tank, a filtering and UV disinfection system and a solar hot water system with 450L storage tank.
Although there is a lock up garage, this city-fringe home is within walking distance of Roma Street Parkland, Roma Street Station and Victoria Park. Brisbane Central State School is also only two streets away.
In keeping with Queensland consumer law, properties going under the hammer cannot carry advertised price guides.
This Brisbane home at 32 Isaac St, Spring Hill is on the market with Ray White New Farm with an auction date set for November 30. For details contact agent Samuel Angus on 0411 044 949.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.