Why 2025 Could Be a Great Year for Big Banks

Top global banks have taken off in recent years, but ascents can be bumpy. In 2025, they might get to relax while on cruise speed.

The Federal Reserve recently signaled that interest rates might only be cut twice in the year ahead as a result of stickier-than-expected inflation, prompting stocks generally to sell off. But rates being “less high for longer” is actually great news for banks, and the latest sign that 2025 might be a good year for almost all of the many business lines that comprise large universal lenders.

This hasn’t been the case in recent times, even when financial firms overall were doing really well. In 2022, the big rebound in global trade that followed production stoppages during the depths of the pandemic resulted in a surge in sales for such transaction-focused intermediaries as Citigroup , HSBC Holdings and BNP Paribas . Desks that trade fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, saw client flows balloon, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the start of the rate-tightening cycle sparked a sudden demand to hedge rates, foreign exchange and energy prices around the world. The likes of JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank benefited greatly.

But adverse monetary and geoeconomic conditions caused underwriting fees to collapse, as companies all simultaneously held off on issuing equity and debt.

Then came 2023. Large-bank revenue jumped once again, this time mostly driven by an 11% increase in net interest margins, Visible Alpha data shows. After a decade and a half, the industry was finally getting to benefit from a larger spread between what it was able to charge borrowers and pay to depositors. Yet, at the same time, dealmaking tumbled because of high borrowing costs and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Some of the lopsidedness has persisted this past year, mostly because central banks have lowered rates again. That resulted in a fall in net interest income that has hit revenue in commercial and wealth-management arms, but also transaction banking, which does a lot of cash management for firms. Traders of government bonds and other rate-related products have had a tepid year. And, overall, revenue growth has slowed.

Nevertheless, 2024 is when the market truly rewarded bank stocks. The banking subcomponents of the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 have returned 35% and 32%, respectively, compared with 25% and 6% for the broader indexes.

This underscores the importance that today’s investors attribute to getting predictable, well-diversified returns from their banks, rather than having another year with a quarter of revenue coming from FICC.

Indeed, this past year was still one of normalization. Mergers and initial public offerings bounced back a bit, and many corporate treasurers had to refinance their debt to avoid an incoming wall of bond maturities. And, even if investors eschewed government debt, they gobbled up the kinds of fixed-income products that offered a spread over it, such as corporate bonds, in an attempt to lock in high yields for the long run.

This is a good omen for the year ahead.

For the first time since 2021, all of the divisions of the world’s top banks except FICC trading are forecast to expand revenue, according to a median of analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Even that dark spot might end up brightening: As of early December, yields on three-month Treasury bills have been trading below those of 10-year paper for the first time since 2022, which might soon trigger renewed enthusiasm for fixed income.

Regardless, steeper yield curves will almost certainly be good for banks, serving to widen net interest margins.

To be sure, officials easing borrowing costs by less than previously expected could hit consumers and cause trouble for some commercial real-estate loans. The European economy in particular is quite weak. Still, the impact is likely to be small. Default rates remain low.

Crucially, 2025 looks likely to be the year in which the advisory business gathers momentum after a tentative comeback. Private-equity firms are being pressured to start exiting their investments after years of waiting it out. While sponsors have been coming up with new delaying tactics, such as rolling over assets into “continuation funds,” the management-consulting firm Bain estimated that 46% of companies owned by private-equity funds were held for four years or longer by the end of 2023, which was the highest level since 2012.

If, on top of this, the Trump administration eases regulatory scrutiny both on the financial sector and on mergers, banks will enjoy yet another tailwind , with Goldman Sachs probably coming out on top.

Banks might finally be firing on all cylinders.

Dropping anchor on the cruise of a lifetime

A private driver arrives at your home to transport you to your cruise suite, where you are welcomed aboard with a glass of Dom Perignon and introduced to your personal butler — exhale, your luxury voyage has begun.

Welcome to a new level of luxury cruising where rare and remote experiences are the currencies and every opulence you thought you knew on land is also available at sea.

“The luxury experience at sea has started to fragment, it’s different things to different people,” says Joe O’Sullivan, managing director of small ship booking specialist, Cruise Traveller. “For some, it’s the whole ethos of the white glove service, the personal touches like the butler who remembers your favourite drink. But another big driver in the luxury market is experiences, the people who want to camp on the ice in Antarctica or paddleboard off the bow of the ship.”

We did all the hard work for you and found five of the most luxurious experiences you can have at sea in 2025 — and what they cost.

Live like a VIP at sea

Want to organise a private dinner for 12 in your suite? No problem. What about a night in a luxury hotel before the ship sails? Of course. A growing number of ships are offering that VIP treatment once reserved for world leaders and celebrities. And for the right price, your wish is their command.

The Owner’s Residence aboard an Explora Journeys ship is about as luxe as it gets on sea. We’re talking an outdoor terrace that extends the full width of the ship, marble ensuite with a large bathtub, private steam room and Dyson appliances and a butler that packs and unpacks, launders and presses your clothes like an old-school majordomo. Of course, this will set you back almost $200,000 per couple for a two-week cruise.

For a similar, though no less opulent experience, Explora Journeys have four categories of Ocean Residences below this.

“Explora Journeys is the luxury division of MSC Cruises, but don’t let the mass-market MSC brand put you off, this is like Volkswagen owning Porsche and Audi,” says Mark Trim, managing director of Flat Beds Tour + Cruise, who was lucky enough to spend two weeks in an Ocean Residence with his family earlier this year. “And whilst it is a small ship, there was a lot of space, and the wellness facilities, bars and shopping were also incredible, highlighted by the inclusion of the exclusive Rolex boutique on Deck 4.”

The VIP treatment aboard a Regent Suite on select Regent Seven Seas ships carries a price tag of around $16,000 a night. For this you get 413sqm of space (more than double the average ship suite) at the bow of the ship with ocean views from two wraparound balconies.

And forget an ensuite, in the Regent Suite, it’s called a master bathroom spa retreat and includes a treatment area, full sauna and multi-jet shower, heated relaxation loungers, a heated spa and unlimited, complimentary in-suite spa treatments.

You also get access to The Study, a Private Dining Room for up to 12 guests, and a night in a luxury hotel pre-cruise including breakfast and transfers.

A 14-day cruise from Monte Carlo to Rome in a Retreat Residence suite on Explora II departing May 2025 is from $22,650 a person twin share and from $74,000 a person twin share in an Owner’s Residence suite.
A night in a Regent Suite aboard Regent Seven Seas Explorer, Grandeur or Splendor is from $16,000.

Walk among penguins

There are a few things you can be sure of when you step onto remote Snow Hill off the east coast of Antarctica — you will be surrounded by thousands of Emperor penguins and you will be part of a select few to do so.

Getting access to Snow Hill, where up to 10,000 breeding penguins and their offspring live, is by helicopter only.

Five years ago, Scenic launched their discovery yacht class called Scenic Eclipse equipped with two onboard helicopters and a custom submersible to take travellers on these types of rare adventures.

“We’ve seen significant demand for immersive experiences, particularly for unique offerings like our helicopter excursions,” says Anthony Laver, Scenic Group general manager, sales and Marketing, APAC. “This growing interest reflects a broader trend towards intimate, immersive and ultra-luxury journeys that go beyond traditional cruising. And given its sleek yacht design, Scenic Eclipse is also capable of sailing into places many ships are not able to reach.”

The 22-day Antarctica, South Georgia and the Falkland Islands itinerary departing Buenos Aires in February 2025 is from $32,020 a person twin share. Helicopter excursions operate from this cruise at an extra cost.

Meet the Inuit

Go hunting on dog sleds with Inuit masters, set off on a polar hike and experience the midnight sun. It may sound clichéd, but these are just some of the once-in-a-lifetime experiences you can have onboard Ponant’s first luxury hybrid electric polar exploration ship, Le Commandant Charcot.

“Unlike more standard polar cruise activities, travellers won’t travel on Zodiacs very much at all, as everything is done by dog sled,” says Ponant expedition experience director, Jose Sarica. “The charm of this voyage to the far north-west of Greenland is that it offers some very immersive experiences in icebound landscapes, including hiking and snowshoeing, traditional Inuit kayaking, beluga and narwhal watching and even snorkelling through the ice in a wetsuit.”

The 11-day Inuit Spring of Ammassalik aboard Ponant’s Le Commandant Charcot departing May 2025 is from $26,180 a person twin share (polar trek experience $1550 extra).

The luxury of time

Is there anything more luxurious than time, philosophically speaking? What about if you combine it with a prolonged journey aboard a six-star ultra-luxury ship? Sign up for the experience with Silversea who feature a range of Grand category itineraries designed to let you immerse yourself in your destination.

One of their most popular voyages is the 47-day circumnavigation of Australia which visits 23 ports and includes door-to-door private transfers from your home, your own butler to cater to your needs at sea, as well as all shore excursions and business class airfares.

The 47-day Grand Australia voyage departing Melbourne in October 2025 aboard Silver Nova is from $51,200 a person twin share with door-to-door service. 

Tesla Stock Is Rising. Analyst Sees ‘Limited’ Focus on Fundamentals.

Tesla stock fell while the market rallied on Friday, which makes Monday’s gain a relief for investors watching the stock after its recent surge. Still, no one should mistake Tesla ’s recent moves for anything based on the fundamental factors driving the business.

Let’s back up. Tesla’s stock has been on a tear of late, which makes Friday’s move something of a puzzle. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker dropped 3.5% on Friday, closing at $421.06, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1%.

There wasn’t a great reason for the divergence. “To me, [Tesla stock] was wildly overbought and long hedge funds needed a reason to take some profits,” says Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black .

“Overbought” is a trading term that essentially means the stock has gone up a lot quickly. When that happens, it can be a sign a lot of good news is reflected in the price and that there aren’t many buyers left to fuel more gains.

Some profit-taking in Tesla shares is natural—especially considering the rally. Coming into Monday, Tesla stock had risen 69% this year and 67% since the Nov. 5 election . Shares have declined 12% from a record closing high of $479.86 on Dec. 17.

Tesla stock closed up 2.3% at $430.60, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.

One thing helping shares was a report from Barclays analyst Dan Levy . He expects the company to deliver 515,000 vehicles this quarter. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver roughly 510,00 vehicles, according to various consensus aggregators, a record for any quarter.

Better-than-expected results can help any stock, but Levy’s number is important for another reason. Tesla needs to deliver about 515,000 vehicles to increase deliveries in 2024 compared with 2023. While Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, it shipped 1,293,656 in the first three quarters of 2023, down about 7% year over year.

Levy isn’t a Tesla bull. He rates shares Hold and has a $270 price target on the stock. A “beat could keep narrative momentum strong,” wrote Levy. “But [a] focus on fundamentals [is] limited overall.”

Tesla stock has added about $170 a share since the election, boosting Tesla’s market value by more than $550 billion, even though the car business hasn’t changed all that much.

Investors, however, are thinking about earnings. They believe Tesla’s self-driving robo-taxi business will drive significant value. That business is slated to begin in late 2025.

Levy is less optimistic, though. He even used the word “meme” in his report, referring to stocks that go wild for little reason.

Overall, about 46% of analysts covering Tesla stock rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $296 a share, up about $60 sine the election.

No matter what happens in the last few days of the trading year, 2024 will have turned out quite well for Tesla investors. It is their reward for enduring volatility. Don’t forget, Tesla stock bottomed out below $$140 a share in April.

WHY WILLOW VALE MILL IS A ONE-OF-A-KIND COUNTRY ESTATE

Half a century ago Willow Vale Mill was a crumbling ruin. However the period property’s revival became a life-long passion project for its owner, Graham Liney. Now the unique homestead is on the market for the first time in 50 years, with a price guide of $4.25 million through David Medina of Sotheby’s International Realty.

The chef and potato farmer, who pioneered an innovative “diabetic” spud now sold worldwide, bought the run down 8ha estate in 1972 and set about transforming the original 1830s flour mill into a home and hospitality residence loved by locals and city slickers alike.

Willow Vale Mill has since become a landmark property in Laggan, less than 10 minutes’ drive from the historic town of Crookwell, NSW. It has been a guest house, a function centre and on Saturday nights the venue regularly hosted a famous four-course feast.

“The property has had a colourful past. People remember it for the accommodation, the restaurant, and the Saturday night entertainment that Graham ran there for many years,” Medina said.

“But the place is now on the market as purely a private residence for someone to enjoy as a family retreat or a short term accommodation opportunity.”

As well as being home to a once-thriving guest house, the property also includes plenty of space for farming potential. Liney grew potatoes on site for decades and eventually embarked on the challenge of finding a potato suitable for diabetics and pre-diabetics. He registered the low GI spud known as the Carisma and began marketing it internationally in the 2010s. Over the years, Liney has developed more than 40 potato varieties.

Inspired by the rambling farmhouses of rural Tuscany, where Liney now lives operating a new hospitality venture, he created a grand six-bedroom main residence with a versatile floor plan over four levels with multiple living spaces inside and out. In addition, there is a separate studio space, a railway station building, and various multipurpose out houses.

“I’d love someone to revive it as an up market restaurant or wedding reception venue, but they’ll need to work on creating more accommodation. Or it would make a grand house for someone who wants a country pad. It’s ideal for someone who really loves country living with ample grounds, which took me 50 years to plant and build and grow,” Liney explained.

“My great love has always been building and gardening. I enjoy people and food, but I really love gardening so the grounds at Willow Vale are very special to me.”

Throughout the expansive grounds there is a a grand pond, a sculptured garden, a walled garden, an amphitheatre, walking trails, a walled garden and a creek complete with platypus.

Willow Vale Mill has had just five owners in almost two centuries and ceased business as a mill in the 1920s.

“It’s quite unique because it’s in good condition and ready to be transformed in someone’s dream home. I’ve looked for a mini version of it in NSW, from Cowra to Cootamundara, from Yass to Orange — I can’t find anything,” Liney added.

Medina agreed that the rare residence is a real estate unicorn; something that resembles more of a European manor and parklands than an Aussie country house.

“There’s not another one of these in the country. It’s a one-of-a-kind property that I don’t think will ever be repeated. It’s also on about 20 acres and comprises almost a quarter of the village of Laggan,” he said.

“If you want to save yourself the business class airfare, the two-and-a-half-hour drive from Sydney or 20 minutes from Canberra, this will transport you to your own private slice of Tuscany or the French provincial countryside.”

 

Willow Vale Mill is on the market with David Medina of Sotheby’s International Realty New South Wales.

El Salvador Made Bitcoin an Official Currency. Now It’s Backtracking for IMF Loan.

The government of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele agreed to scale back his ambitious plan to adopt bitcoin as a national currency in exchange for a much-needed $1.4 billion loan by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF said in a statement Wednesday that in exchange for the financial-aid program to support the Bukele administration economic overhaul agenda, the government agreed to implement measures to mitigate bitcoin-related risks.

The deal signals an important shift by the IMF, showing greater flexibility over government use and regulation of bitcoin in anticipation of friendlier crypto policies by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump , said Alejandro Werner , a former director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department.

Bukele’s surprise decision to make bitcoin legal tender was cheered by crypto enthusiasts but stalled financial support from the IMF in the midst of concern that the volatile crypto asset could rock the finances of the impoverished and indebted Central American nation.

“In a situation where the international financial community didn’t want to set a precedent on the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, it became an obstacle to close an agreement with the IMF,” said Werner, who also served as adviser to El Salvador’s government and currently heads the Georgetown Americas Institute in Washington, D.C.

The use of bitcoin as a national currency in this country of around 6.5 million didn’t take off, surveys show. After the government spent more than $200 million in 2021 rolling out bitcoin ATMs and an e-wallet with $30 of free bitcoin for anyone who signed up, most users took the virtual currency to buy goods or exchange it for dollars.

The government began purchasing bitcoin when it was trading at about $30,000, booking losses at first and then posting significant gains as its volatile price surpassed $100,000 recently.

Among the concessions made by the Bukele administration, acceptance of bitcoin by the country’s businesses will no longer be mandatory, while the public sector’s participation in bitcoin-related activities will be restricted, the IMF said.

“The potential risks of the bitcoin project will be diminished significantly” in line with fund policies, the IMF said.

Under the agreement, El Salvador’s government agreed to reduce bitcoin purchases, and it will no longer accept tax payments with the crypto asset. The government’s participation in Chivo, the crypto e-wallet launched in 2021, will be gradually unwound, the IMF said.

“Transparency, regulation, and supervision of digital assets will be enhanced to safeguard financial stability, consumer and investor protection, and financial integrity,” it added.

Bukele highlighted on X the IMF’s remarks about the steady expansion of the country’s economy since the pandemic, bolstered by “robust remittances and a remarkable pickup in tourism,” in the midst of improvements in public security.

Top 5 ways to stay safe online — and avoid the holiday horror stories

We’re all aware of the dangers of cyber hacking and identity theft and most of us will take care when connecting online not to give away too much information. But at this time of year, when online shopping hits its peak and families head off on holiday, it’s easy to let your guard down. Here, the experts share their top tips for staying safe online when you’re out of the office and going on holiday.

Keep your OOO simple

Senior Information Security Consultant in Westpac Group’s Cyber Culture team Sally Youden says online security starts before you leave your desk.

“While switching on your out of office message is an easy task, you might want to reduce the amount of information you provide,” she says. “It could be used for malicious purposes by cybercriminals looking for opportunities to find a ‘way in’ to an organisation.”

While it’s important to communicate clearly, she said you should avoid adding too much detail like mobile numbers and job titles for external OOO messages.

Secure your spend

Shopping online over the Christmas and January sales periods is a convenient method for purchasing from the comfort of your living room, but it can expose you to data breaches and identity theft. Experts at the University of Queensland advise sticking with a service like PayPal for payment, or even setting up a separate credit card with a low limit specifically for online purchases. Saving details like passwords  to online accounts will also expose your bank accounts to theft. Instead, set up multi-factor identification to minimise risk.

Parcel scams

Most of us are aware of the parcel scams where hackers send a SMS advising a parcel is being delivered to your address. However, at this time of year when there are so many deliveries happening, it can be hard to discern the real from the fake, especially when they are impersonating services such as Australia Post. Ms Youden’s best advice is to pause and think before you click on a link. If you’re not sure whether it’s your parcel, reach out to the delivery service independently to confirm the details.

Pop-up precautions

Pop-up ads and social media offers can be tempting but cyber security experts at NAB suggest it’s better to avoid clicking on them. If you find the temptation too much, consider installing a pop-up blocker.

“Those bright and shiny ads that pop up on your screen when shopping online or using social media are clever and persistent marketing tactics looking to promote products or services,” NAB advises. “They can also be used to deliver malicious software, direct you to dodgy webpages, or fake sales.”

Instead, if you see an attractive offer, go to their website independently and check reviews before handing over your details.

Frequent flyers

It’s the easiest thing to do when you’re waiting for your flight, but recharging at the airport can be a risky business. Known as ‘juice jacking’, public charging stations such as those at airports and hotels can be hacked by cybercriminals, Ms Youden says. NAB experts advise that the same goes for public wifi services.

“If you have to use public Wi-Fi, consider using a Virtual Private Network (VPN) to create a secure connection. Avoid using free Wi-Fi to do any online banking or shopping, as this information may be exposed and misused.”

 

Earned good money this year? Your house might have earned you more

How much did you earn this year? Was it more than $295,000?

That’s the median profit Australian home sellers made in the past three months according to data from CoreLogic released today. The property data provider released its Pain & Gain Report for the September quarter analysing 95,000 dwelling resales. The gains revealed the highest results since records began in the 90s. Total nominal gains were also higher, at $33.98 billion up from $33.3 billion in the previous quarter.

Source: CoreLogic

Australians are also holding onto their homes for longer, with the median period of home ownership now 9 years. For those who sold this year, that means they bought in 2015. The report noted that national home values have increased 57.7 percent in that time

Houses continued to represent the best option for capital growth, with just 2.9 percent selling at a loss compared with 9.4 percent of units. Homeowners who held their properties for two years or less were most susceptible to losses. 

CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said units were historically more likely to sell at a loss but the likelihood had grown across all properties held for shorter periods in recent years.

The impact on mortgage holders would vary, however, depending on whether they were owner occupiers or investors.

“Investors are potentially in a better position to sell at a loss, because they may be able to offset that loss on future capital gains from property,” she said. “Three years on from mortgage rate lows, the incidence of loss is rising for those who have held between two and four years.”

Indeed, not every home seller walked away with a tidy profit this quarter. The report noted Melbourne was the only capital city to experience a further downturn in values, with 9.9 percent of properties selling at a loss.

The median nominal loss was -$40,000 and the total nominal loss was $270 million over the quarter.

 

Trump and SoftBank Promise to Create 100,000 AI Jobs. It Won’t Be Easy.

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son stood besides President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Monday, and announced a commitment to invest $100 billion in the U.S. over the next four years—and create 100,000 jobs. The investments will be concentrated in AI.

“My confidence level to the economy of the United States has tremendously increased with his victory,” Son said at the news conference.

SoftBank is an investment holding company with a range of technology investments all over the world, but especially in the U.S. At the end of September, the total value of its investments was $136 billion, so the new commitment would represent a substantial expansion of SoftBank’s balance sheet.

Raising that sort of money may prove difficult, but the bigger obstacle could be the commitment on jobs—the focus on AI companies, in particular, complicates the goal. AI companies spend a lot on salaries, but these are some of the most expensive employees in the world right now. And they don’t tend to employ a lot of people overall

OpenAI, which has raised $18 billion and has a private market value of $157 billion, has 1,372 employees. To fulfill Trump and Son’s commitment, in other words, the investments would have to create 73 AI companies on the scale of OpenAI.

“A lot of advanced tech these days, including AI, is capital intensive and also highly dependent on high-paid skilled workers,” labor economist Guy Berger of the Burning Glass Institute told Barron’s . “I’m not sure how much head count $100 billion spread out over four years gets you.”

A selection of a dozen AI start-ups with valuations over a billion dollars reveals the uphill climb to the 100,000 jobs goal. These companies have raised a combined $42 billion and have an aggregate private market value of $309 billion, according to FactSet. Anthropic, which has raised almost $12 billion, has only 425 employees. All told, these companies employ less than 10,000 workers, an average of 785 workers per start-up.

Databricks, a data analytics start-up with a valuation of $43 billion, accounts for almost half of those employees. Excluding Databricks, the per start-up employee count falls to 399.

Other barriers in the labor market exist, as well. The overall unemployment rate is 4.2%, but narrow that down to workers with masters and doctoral degrees who are most likely to be AI employees, and the rate drops to 2.0% and 1.0%, respectively. In all, there are only 483,000 workers with advanced degrees looking for work, and most of them aren’t AI engineers.

“The labor market is not super loose right now,” Berger said. “A lot of gross jobs created here might simply involve reallocating people who already have jobs.”

Monday’s press conference recalled a similar one from 2016, when Trump and Son stood in the lobby of Trump Tower and promised $50 billion in U.S. investment and 50,000 jobs. SoftBank didn’t reply to a request for comment about the progress of that 2016 commitment.

How Australian spending patterns are changing

October was the month for going out and partying, November saw spending on fashion spike while December shoppers will be turning to credit to have a happy Christmas.

That’s the pattern of spending by Australian consumers for the past three months according to recently released data.

Research from the Commonwealth Bank showed spending on ticketing services rose by 27 percent over October, with tickets to concerts by Oasis, Luke Combs, Metallica and even the F1 in Melbourne proving irresistible for many Australians looking to enjoy themselves.

In November, Black Friday sales — a retail event borrowed from the United States to bridge the day between Thanksgiving and the following Monday — have become a strong feature in Australia in recent years. While the sales events can begin at the start of the month and last for weeks rather than days, the Commonwealth Bank noted 8 of the 12 Household Spending Insights experienced an uptick over the month. This was led by women’s and men’s fashion, with shoppers hoping to take advantage of sales ahead of Christmas.

CBA Chief Economist Stephen Halmarick said in a year where cost of living pressures have been felt across Australian households, the possibility of securing a bargain moved Christmas spending forward.

“We’re seeing Black Friday and holiday spending shift earlier as retailers entice shoppers with early discounts on discretionary items,” Mr Halmarick said. “Collectively, sales for October and November 2024 were up 2 per cent compared to the same period last year.” 

With Christmas Day a little over a week away, research by Roy Morgan, commissioned by the Australian Retailers Association showed more than half of Australian shoppers had begun their Christmas spend as early as October. The research also found that Australians are expected to spend $11.8 billion on presents this year, an increase of $1.6 billion on 2023.

Financial comparison service Finder research indicated more Australians will be leaning on credit to cover the shortfall in their budgets this year. The survey of 1009 respondents showed 26 percent regretted not saving more for Christmas, while a further 14 percent felt they had not saved enough.

In contrast, 34 percent revealed they had no need to set aside money for the holidays while another 26 percent had implemented a savings plan over the year to cover costs.

Sarah Megginson, personal finance expert Finder, said Australians struggling with Christmas expenses should avoid racking up debt on credit and instead focus on ways of trimming down costs.

“Many families have very little wiggle room in their budgets this festive season after a surge in living costs,” she said. “When you’re in this situation, planning and comparing to get the best deals and discounts is crucial.

“Avoid extending yourself and ending up with a credit card balance you’re struggling to pay off once the tree has been packed away.”

Property of the Week: 26-27 Olola Rd, Vaucluse

A Sydney trophy home which has been no stranger to the property market in recent years has reappeared this week, listed with new agents and an amended price guide of $45 million.
The grand Vaucluse estate on coveted Olola Avenue is currently owned by shipping container king Arthur Tzaneros and his wife Maude who paid $32 million for the expansive 2266sq m estate just three years ago. Tzaneros is currently the CEO of Australian Container Freight Services Port Logistics.
Despite purchasing in 2021, but reportedly only settling on the prestige property in 2022, the
palatial residence was back on the market mid last year with $50 million to $55 million price
expectations. That 2023 listing of Olola Rd was likely prompted by Tzaneros spending $61.5
million for another luxury home in nearby Bellevue Hill last year.
Prior to the Tzaneros’ acquisition, the high profile house was on the market in 2018, when it
exchanged for $17 million, and 2012 when it fetched $8.5 million.
Now the extravagant five-bedroom home, complete with resort-style grounds including a pool and tennis court, is being marketed with co-agents Michael Pallier of Sydney Sotheby’s International and David Malouf of Highland Double Bay.
The vast compound sits opposite historic Vaucluse House and Vaucluse Park, featuring northerly harbour views out to The Heads and a long wish list of designer finishes.
A stately home with grand proportions, the elevated three-storey property has a winding private driveway to a large forecourt fit for multiple cars in addition to the six-car showroom garage.
An imposing foyer and gallery with herringbone floorboards and a statement staircase make a
great first impression, while formal rooms open up to a pergola and water views. This spacious ground floor footprint has multiple zones for entertaining and the sleek state-of-the-art kitchen features a huge marble island bench, big butler’s pantry, Miele ovens and an induction stovetop.
There is also a separate home office with external access on the same level.
Upstairs, five bedrooms all have their own ensuites with Calacatta marble surfaces and heated floors. The hotel-style primary suite is a home to a Hollywood-inspired dressing room, and a fireplace, and features balcony access with a harbour outlook, a deluxe bathroom with double showers and vanities plus an oval freelancing bathtub.
The converted attic is the ultimate retreat or guest bedroom with a wide terrace, kitchenette and bath ensuite.
For outdoor entertaining, the property also has a combined tennis and basketball court, a
swimming pool, an alfresco pavilion with integrated barbecue and bar fridge, a level lawn, as well as landscaped private grounds.
The long list of luxury features at the residence includes a five-person lift to three levels, a wine cellar, cloak room, two powder rooms and a self-contained street-level studio ideal for live-in staff.
Surrounded by VIP homes, the Olola Ave house is close to harbour beaches and sought after
schools.
26-27 Olola Rd, Vaucluse is listed with a $45 million price guide with co-agents Micheal
Pallier of Sydney Sotheby’s International Realty and David Malouf of Highland Property
Double Bay.

Swarovski: The Christmas tradition to last a lifetime

There’s a famous scene in Love Actually where actor Rowan Atkinson goes through a convoluted exercise to gift wrap a piece of jewellery for fellow actor Alan Rickman. Quite the performance, Atkinson’s embellishments have become the benchmark of experiential Christmas shopping by which all others are judged.

And for good reason.

Jewellery is a deeply personal gift meant to last a lifetime, whether the someone special you’re buying for is a significant other, or even yourself. And the experience of purchasing is all part of the enjoyment. The Swarovski range is designed to elevate the everyday to the extraordinary with an enviable array of earrings, necklaces, rings and wrist wear perfect for a day with friends, the office or even an extravagant night out. Whether in store or online, skilled sales consultants are on hand, ready to assist every step of the way, from selecting the perfect pieces for you through to the final flourishes of gifting. It’s all part of a commitment to quality and service that brings lovers of beautiful jewellery back year after year.

While others have tried to emulate them, Swarovski crystals are unmatched. Since founder Daniel Swarovski opened for business in Austria in 1895, they have become known for their exceptional cut and brilliance, literally outshining the competition. Known as the masters of light, Swarovski crystals are still crafted in Wattens, Austria, although the range has expanded to Christmas ornaments, decorations and figurines, spreading the sparkle at this festive time of year.

Here are our favourites from the latest Swarovski releases:

The Una Angelic Set

What can we say about this classic necklace, bracelet and earring set? This timeless trio moves effortlessly from office and client meetings to after work celebrations. Finished in classic white crystals and Rhodium plated it’s the set you’ll return to again and again. If you’re looking for the failsafe gift, this is it.

 

Swarovski Advent Calendar

Don’t want to wait to embrace the Christmas season? Treat yourself, a loved one or even the whole family to something special leading up to the big day. The Swarovski Advent Calendar features a sparkling crystal Christmas decoration behind each of its 25 doors, ensuring your tree becomes a glittering centrepiece. Count down the days with style.

 

2024 Christmas Ornament

Swarovski aficionados will already be on the hunt for this year’s official ornament but it’s never too late to start your own tradition. The beautiful snowflake creation has been designed with 133 facets and is available in clear or gold tone finish. It is complete with a gold tone metal tag engraved with the year. Ideal for hanging on the tree, it also looks stunning hanging on a door or in the window.

 

The Angelic range

When too much sparkle is never enough, this beautiful range of earrings, bracelets, necklaces and more offers a glittering array of choice. The delicate collection is an easy wear range, perfect for casual Christmas lunches, work outfits or any event where the desired look is sophisticated, stylish and completely put together. With a range of colours and finishes available, the greatest challenge with the Angelic range is deciding on your favourite — and knowing when to stop.

Receive a pouch when you spend $280 and treasure all your new favourites. Shop Now.

Offer ends 16th December 2024.

While stocks last.
Terms and conditions apply.

 

A variable Australian property market holds firm in 2024 as west coast investors cash in

If there is one word to describe the Australian property market this year, it’s resilience.

That’s according to data released by CoreLogic today as part of its Best of the Best report.

Despite the cash rate remaining unmoved at 4.35 percent in 2024, home sales went up by 8 percent compared with last year and increased 6 percent on the previous five-year average. In signs that property continues to be a sound choice for investors, home values have risen 5.5 percent over the past 12 months, with the overall value of Australian homes now in excess of $11 trillion.

Head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen, noted that there was significant ‘variability’ across markets, with Melbourne recording a fall of -2.3 percent in annual values while Perth saw home values rise by 21 percent over the same period. It was a similar story in regional areas, with regional Victoria experiencing falls of -2.7 percent and regional Western Australia witnessing a 15.5 percent increase.

Indeed, the Geraldton suburb of Beachlands in WA took out the top spot for the greatest increase in house values nationally, with a rise of 38.4 percent. In the unit market, Dolphins Heads in the Mackay region of Queensland experienced the most growth this year, with an increase in values of 52.8 percent. In capital city markets, Perth took out all 10 spots for strongest growth in house values.

While the greatest gains in terms of percentages were in the bottom quarter of the market, the greatest results were at the luxury end, with Sydney’s Mosman holding its position with the highest total value of house sales over the past 12 months at $1.652 billion.

Source: CoreLogic

While it has been a good year for those already in the market, there are indicators that conditions in 2025 could soften, with the final quarter of 2024 recording less robust results.

“The market’s initial strength in 2024 gradually waned due to declining demand, rising levels of advertised supply, and a shifting outlook for inflation and interest rates,” Ms Owen said.

However, she said an anticipated interest rate cut in the first half of 2025 and the possibility of wages growth next year made further increases in property values hard to predict. 

“While market conditions are broadly expected to improve off the back of a cash rate

reduction in 2025, there will still be considerable diversity in housing market performance,” she said.

Rates on hold again as the RBA continues to exercise caution

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today, dashing hopes of an early Christmas present for mortgage holders.

In a widely anticipated decision, the RBA has once again cited persistently high inflation as the reason for the pause. While acknowledging inflation has fallen substantially since it peaked at 7.8 percent in December 2022, the board said in a statement that there was still work to be done.

“Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance,” the RBA board said in a statement. “Measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5 percent, which is still some way from the 2.5 percent midpoint of the inflation target.

“The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.”

In further signals that a rate cut is still some way off, the board noted that the economic outlook remained ‘uncertain’ both in Australia and overseas, where some central banks have made cuts to their cash rates in recent months.

“There remains a high level of uncertainty about the outlook abroad. Most central banks have eased monetary policy as they become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably back towards their respective targets,” the board said. 

“They note, however, that they are removing only some restrictiveness and remain alert to risks in both directions, namely weaker labour markets and stronger inflation. “Geopolitical uncertainties remain pronounced.”

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the RBA board’s decision to stick to its ‘steady as she goes’ approach was finely balanced.

“Tight labour market conditions, juxtaposed with a combination of low productivity growth, weak economic conditions and high inflation demonstrates the ‘narrow path’ the RBA is traversing, keeping rates high while avoiding a recession or blow out in the unemployment rate,” Mr Lawless said. 

“So far, the RBA has held to this path; the economy has staved off a recession, albeit largely due to population growth and government spending.  

“Similarly, households are battling through a seven-quarter ‘per capita’ recession that has been compounded by a period of negative real income growth and a depletion of savings, yet we haven’t seen mortgage arrears rise beyond 2 percent.”

He noted that, despite the lack of movement in the cash rate, home values were up 5.5 percent over the past year, although there was now evidence the heat was coming out of the market.

“Home purchasing is winding down, total listing numbers rising, the clearance rate is falling and homes are taking longer to sell,” he said. “Affordability may increasingly see buyers drop out of the market amid high interest rate settings.”

Based on the data, he said it was still likely mortgage holders could see a rate drop in the first half of 2025. The RBA board will meet again in February.

The Australian regions outperforming the capitals for energy efficient housing

CANBERRA

New Australian homes are far more energy efficient than those built previously, a new report from CoreLogic has shown. The report, Amped Up: How energy efficient are Australian

Homes?’ has taken data from CoreLogic and checked it against metrics generated by the  CSIRO’s RapidRate™ product to reveal that houses built after 2010 achieved a media star rating of 5.9 out of a possible 10. This compares with a median rating of 2.8 stars for homes built prior to 2010.

The most energy efficient region overall was the ACT, with a median star rating of 6.1. Within the ACT, the region of Molonglo had the highest rating. Positioned halfway between Yarralumla and Stromlo Observatory, Molonglo is the newest district in the ACT and is still under development. It is the only region nationally with a star rating of 6 or above for all dwellings.

The ACT dominated the top 30 list of most energy efficient suburbs. In contrast, Sydney and Hobart were notably absent from the top 30 list, although the report noted that there was a high level of variation across both cities. Sydney and Hobart are also the oldest cities in the country, with some housing stock dating back to the early 19th century. The report noted that demand for heating was also strongest in Hobart, which also had the lowest dwelling completion to population ratio. Heritage restrictions were also identified as a factor.

At a micro level, the Sydney suburbs of Blacktown-North and Bringelly-Green Valley recorded the highest ratings for NSW, with a median of 5.2 stars. In Victoria, the Surf Coast-Bellarine peninsula performed well, with the suburbs of Armstrong Creek, Curlewis and Mount Duneed all showing a median rating of 6 stars or higher.

Given Australian housing accounts for 24 percent of electricity use and 10 percent of carbon emissions, CoreLogic’s Head of Banking & Finance Solutions Tom Coad said it was vital that standards set in the National Construction Code were adhered to.

“The significant difference in energy efficiency between relatively modern homes and older homes can largely be attributed to changes in the National Construction Code

which has progressively placed more emphasis on energy efficiency requirements for newly built homes,” Mr Coad said.

“The Coalition’s recent push to pause the National Construction Code for 10 years flies in the face of Australia’s commitments to reduce carbon emissions.”

“Policymakers should be incentivising the construction of energy efficient buildings, not slamming the breaks.”

The report was compiled using the Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) star rating system. Research director at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, said it was important to continue to monitor the energy efficiency of housing construction.

“What gets measured gets done,” he said. “As standards for energy efficient design and construction rise, it’s also becoming more important to measure energy resilience in

our housing stock.

“Minimum energy efficiency standards for new builds will continue to be important in supporting Australia’s greenhouse gas reduction targets, but there is likely to be

increasing focus and incentives on established housing where most of Australia’s housing stock was built prior to recent minimum standards.”

The Key to Affordable Living Is Moving In With Your Sibling

Grant Gechtman had a dilemma.

He was preparing to meet a date at his place when he realized he hadn’t mentioned something important: He has an identical twin brother, Dylan, who lives with him.

Grant and Dylan Gechtman , 25, share a rented three-bedroom home in Fremont, Calif. They do almost everything else together too. They work as senior associate scientists at the same pharmaceutical company, share a Mazda CX-5, and even joined the same Jewish fraternity in college.

They have another roommate, college friend Vedant Vaidya —whom their co-workers sometimes call the “third twin”—but they don’t view it as a permanent situation.

“We definitely don’t want to live in a big house with both of our wives and stuff like that,” said Dylan.

More adults have moved in with their siblings in recent years, a reflection of how it is becoming harder and more expensive to buy a home or make the rent. With Americans living longer and having fewer children —and divorcing late in life —siblings can be the closest people left for support.

There are about 1.1 million adults ages 50 and older living with a sibling, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by Bowling Green State University’s National Center for Family & Marriage Research. That represents about 1.6% of that age group in 2022, up from about 1.3% in 2012.

There are also about 1.9 million adults ages 18 to 29 living with a sibling. That works out to about 3.6% of that cohort.

“Often when young adults talk about moving back in with their parents, there’s a sense of defeat,” said Krista Westrick-Payne, the center’s assistant director. “Moving in with a sibling…may feel less like a failure.”

Bowling Green’s analysis didn’t include those in their 30s or 40s.

Sherry Campbell , a certified financial planner, has noticed a small yet significant rise in clients seeking guidance on managing finances while owning a home with siblings. Most of her clients are women over 50, looking for emotional and financial support to get through a divorce.

“Men will a lot of times remarry, and women will not remarry,” Campbell said. “So that causes them to search for other ways to have that second income.”

Rooming with a brother or sister can come with challenges. Just because two people were raised the same way doesn’t mean they have the same views about cleaning, privacy or dating. And it is a lot harder to kick a roomie off the lease when you are blood relatives.

But there are perks too. The person in the other room already knows your life story; no need to explain it. And lots of sibmates said it was easier to get over a fight with a sibling than with a friend—perhaps because of the years of experience.

“Obviously you know what you’re getting into,” said Ben Karlin , who recently moved into the rented two-bedroom apartment of his triplet sister, Allison Karlin . “We kind of had a test run for 18 years.”

Ben and Allison have been living together in New York City since September. Their fridge is small, so Ben is careful about what he buys, picking up apples one trip and grapes the next. They don’t share groceries—only condiments.

“Our mom said before we moved in we have to operate like we’re not siblings,” said Ben, a 26-year-old publicist. “I feel like we make an effort.”

They enjoy having their grandparents just a few minutes away. Other family is close by as well. Their other brother, Jason, lives in a two-bedroom apartment in Boston with his girlfriend. He’s jealous of how much time Allison and Ben get to spend with the extended family.

“It’s harder sometimes to feel closer to family members when they’re not down the hall,” Jason said.

‘The modern-day Golden Girls’

The pandemic sparked a big run-up in home prices, and mortgage rates remain high even though the Federal Reserve has started cutting its benchmark interest rate. That has made the idea of buying a home with friends or family members a lot more enticing for many Americans.

Sisters Cheryl Sutton and Sandra Sutton recently bought a five-bedroom home in Portland, Ore., with their best friend. They were ready to leave California and wanted more space for their three dogs.

They knew it would work because they all have been living together for the past 25 years, leveraging each move into an upgrade. Each year, they travel somewhere new together. Next year, they’re going to Scotland. They call themselves the modern-day Golden Girls.

“At this point, anybody that gets married, they’re gonna have to just take the other two as well,” said Sandra, a 52-year-old talent coordinator for a tech company. “There’s no plans to not live together.”

Lauren Rogers , a real-estate agent in Southern California, recently sold a two-bedroom condo in Upland, Calif., for $603,000 to two brothers. The older brother, in his mid-30s, couldn’t afford to buy on his own. So his mother proposed the idea of buying with his younger brother, who is in his late 20s.

Rogers thought it was a great idea to invest together at an early age but says things might change as they get older. “I just told them, ‘This is not your forever home, but it’s your stepping point to get to the next,’” she said.