The ‘new frontier’ in Australian property is not where you think

The Australian housing market is rapidly evolving, with new research revealing changing activity in regional and city areas.

The latest Regional Movers Index from the Commonwealth Bank showed the exodus from Australian cities to the regions is significantly exceeding pre-COVID movements, sitting at 19.8 percent higher. Even more revealing is data which showed relocations are 1.8 percent up on the average recorded during the height of the lockdowns. At the same time, people in regional areas are staying put.

The report is a partnership between the Commonwealth Bank and the Regional Australian Institute. RAI CEO Liz Ritchie said the regions have become the permanent home of choice for more Australians.

“The inter-regional migration index —which tracks regional to regional relocations — has fallen by 5.1 percent, suggesting that more regional residents are content to stay where they are. With the continuing strong jobs market across regional Australia, increasing city property prices and ongoing cost-of-living pressures, it’s no surprise the regions remain desirable,” Ms Ritchie said. 

She said this had significant implications for planners, with a better understanding of infrastructure needs required by planners.

“Regional Australia is truly the nation’s new frontier. There are so many opportunities in our regional communities, but likewise we know there are challenges. Housing for example remains a key ongoing concern in many communities,” she said. “Regional Australia is growing and for that to continue we need adequate foundations. The time to lay them is now.” 

Among the areas to benefit from this shift over the past quarter was the Hunter Valley city of Maitland in NSW which saw a 3.4 percent increase in net migration from the cities and other regional areas. Long seen as the less desirable locale in the wine growing region, Maitland has attracted more buyers looking for an affordable home with lifestyle benefits. CBA Executive General Manager Regional and Agribusiness Banking Paul Fowler said it was an area on the rise.

“There is significant development happening around Maitland, with extensive land releases for residential, industrial, commercial and retail fuelling strong employment and construction industry opportunities,” Mr Fowler said.  

“Maitland is also set to benefit from major investments in the area including the nearby Newcastle Airport which will welcome international flights from 2025, further enhancing the region’s accessibility and economic profile.”   

And while Melbourne property prices continue to experience a lull, it’s a different story outside the capital, with regions closer to main city centres performing particularly well.

“A move to regional Victoria remains on trend among those relocating, with the state’s regional areas experiencing the largest surge in popularity in the 12-month period to September 2024, with its share of net regional inflows rising from 21 percent to 30 percent,” Mt Fowler said. “Trending scenic LGAs like Queenscliffe on the coast, as well as Moira, Wangaratta and Strathbogie located further north, offer attractive and more affordable lifestyle opportunities for many Australians. 

“With more corporate employers setting up or relocating to Geelong, Queenscliffe’s proximity to Greater Geelong and the Melbourne CBD means more regional Australians can enjoy diverse employment opportunities while living in a beautiful location with enhanced lifestyle opportunities.” 

This Company Won Big With Bitcoin and AI. Why It’s Now Favoring One Over the Other

Austin, Texas, company Core Scientific went from bankruptcy to stock market darling this year by betting on two technologies: Bitcoin mining and AI data centers. Shares are up 400%.

But if given the choice of whether to invest more in one business over the other, executives answer without hesitating: the data centers.

“We really just value long-term, stable cash flows and predictable returns,” Chief Operating Officer Matt Brown said in an interview. The company began life as a Bitcoin miner. Even though Bitcoin has been a great asset lately, it’s very volatile. By comparison, Core Scientific can earn steady profits for years by hosting servers owned by companies that sell cloud services to AI providers, Brown said.

This year, you couldn’t go wrong betting on either. Bitcoin is up 116%, and data centers are in high demand because tech companies need them to power their AI applications.

The two technologies seem to have little in common, but they both depend on the same thing: access to reliable power. Core Scientific has a lot of it, operating nine grid-connected warehouses in six states with access to so much electricity they could serve several hundred thousand homes. Other Bitcoin miners have similarly transitioned to data center hosting , but few with quite so much success.

Core Scientific’s business didn’t look quite so good at the start of the year. The company started 2024 under the shadow of bankruptcy protection. It had too much debt on its balance sheet after going public through the SPAC process in 2022 and succumbed to a Bitcoin price crash. But the company’s fortunes quickly turned around after it emerged from bankruptcy on Jan. 23 with $400 million less debt.

The company started the year focused entirely on crypto mining, but quickly pivoted as it saw demand surge for electricity for AI data centers.

In June, the company signed a deal with a company called Coreweave to lease data center space for AI cloud services. Coreweave has since agreed to lease 500 megawatts worth of space. Core Scientific says it will get paid $8.7 billion over 12 years under the deal.

Privately held Coreweave is one of the fastest-growing companies behind the AI revolution. It was once a cryptocurrency miner, but has since transitioned to offering cloud services, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence. It’s closely connected to Nvidia , which has invested money in Coreweave and given the company access to its top-end chips. Coreweave expects to be one of the first customers for Nvidia ’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs.

Core Scientific’s quick success in this new world has surprised even the people who are driving it.

“Every once in a while I need to pinch myself, to see I’m actually not dreaming,” Brown said.

Core Scientific’s success does create a high bar for the stock to keep rising. The company is expected to lose money this year, largely because of a change in the value of stock warrants—an accounting shift that doesn’t reflect underlying earnings. Analysts see the company becoming profitable in 2025, when more of its data center deals start to hit the bottom line. They see EPS jumping tenfold by 2027. Shares trade at about 13 times those 2027 estimates.

The data center opportunity should only grow from here, as tech companies build more powerful AI systems. Of the 1,200 megawatts worth of gross power capacity Core Scientific has contracted, about 800 megawatts are going to data center computing deals and 400 megawatts toward Bitcoin mining.

Brown said the company has good relationships with its power suppliers and can potentially add more capacity without having to buy more real estate. It expects to be able to secure about 300 more megawatts worth of power at existing sites, perhaps by the end of the year.

It’s also in the hunt for new sites, including at “distressed” conventional data centers that have lost their tenants. Core Scientific has figured out how to quickly spiff up bare-bones data centers and turn them into high-tech sites with resources like liquid cooling equipment and much higher levels of electricity.

A single server rack in a standard data center might need 6 or 7 kilowatts of power. A high-performance data center can use as much as 130 kilowatts per rack; Core Scientific is working on increasing capacity to 400 kilowatts. The company likens the process of upgrading the warehouses to turning a ho-hum passenger vehicle into a Formula One racing car.

Core Scientific’s transformation from a broken-down jalopy to a hot rod has been a wild story. Its fate next year will depend on just how quickly the AI revolution unfolds.

Chinese EV Demand Sets Record. December Should Be Huge

Monthly electric vehicle deliveries at NIO , XPeng , and Li Auto set a record in November. Things are looking even better for December.

EV demand isn’t an issue in China. Pricing, however, continues to be a struggle.

Sunday, NIO reported 20,575 deliveries for November, up about 29% from a year ago. Based on recent guidance, given with third-quarter earnings , NIO expects to deliver about 32,000 cars in December, a record, and up about 77% from a year ago.

Li reported 48,740 deliveries for November, up about 19% from a year ago. Based on recent guidance from Li’s third-quarter earnings , the company should deliver about 65,000 cars in December, up 29% from a year ago.

XPeng delivered 30,895 vehicles in November, up about 54% from a year ago. The midpoint of its fourth-quarter guidance, given on its third-quarter earnings report, was 89,000 cars, implying December deliveries of about 34,000 units.

December’s implied numbers would be a record for all three auto makers. EV demand in China is still solid. The bigger problem is competition. Citi analyst Jeff Chung recently wrote that the Chinese car market is still concerned about a “potential price war in 2025.”

He projects 2024 all-electric vehicle sales of 7.8 million units, up about 28% from 2023. Sales in 2025 should be up another 17% to 9.1 million cars. The problem: The industry has the capacity to make 28 million all-electric cars annually, according to Chung’s calculations. Capacity utilization that low typically isn’t great for profit margins.

At least there is demand. Combined, the three Chinese EV makers sold 100,210 vehicles in November. That’s a monthly record. December guidance implies about 131,000 cars sold, another record.

Coming into Monday trading, NIO stock was down about 51% this year while the S&P 500 was up about 26%. XPeng and Li shares were down 17% and 37%, respectively.

Steam comes out of the market as Australian property values cool

Australian capitals experienced their smallest rise in home values since January 2023, new data from CoreLogic has revealed.

The property data provider’s Home Value Index showed values rose by 0.1 percent over spring after 22 months of consecutive rises. CoreLogic predicted this could be close to the last rise in this cycle, with both the Sydney and Melbourne markets showing signs of cooling.

“The downturn is gathering momentum in Melbourne and Sydney,” said Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director.“While the mid-sized capitals, which have dominated the growth cycle of late, are also losing steam.”

The trend was most obvious in Melbourne, with housing values recording drops in 10 of the past 12 months. Melbourne values fell by -1.0 percent in November, while Sydney experienced a fall of -0.5 percent. The report indicated that Sydney values had most likely peaked in August this year.

Some of the smaller capitals were also showing signs of a weakening in values, with Darwin down -0.7 percent and Canberra recording a drop of -0.3 percent.

“The mid-sized capitals and most of the regional ‘rest of state’ markets continue to provide some support for growth in the national index, but it is clear momentum is also leaving these markets,” added Mr Lawless.

However, it was a different story on the other side of the country, with Perth home values experiencing further growth. CoreLogic data showed values in the Western Australian capital up 1.1 percent over the month and 3.0 percent over the quarter. While the increases in values were the strongest amongst the capitals, CoreLogic noted that they were less than half that recorded in the June quarter, where they were at a robust  6.7 percent.

Mr Lawless pointed to a lack of movement in core inflation, as well as the diminishing likelihood of an interest rate cut early next year as factors in the subdued capital gains. Leading Australian economists are predicting a cut somewhere between February and May 2025.

“A lower cash rate will be a positive factor for housing markets,” Mr Lawless said. “Lower mortgage rates will provide a lift to borrowing capacity, and, along with lower inflation, should see an improvement in serviceability assessments and see a further rise in consumer sentiment.”

“A couple of rate cuts might be enough to shore up a declining trend in home values, but it is hard to see any material upward pressure returning until interest rates reduce more substantially and affordability barriers are less formidable.”

 

UNRIVALLED LUXURY IN THE HEART OF WAHROONGA

Sydney has its fair share of trophy homes, but when it comes to a mansion with every modern must-have, few could compete with this reinvented Wahroonga residence that’s been five years in the making.

Owned by actuary Julian Lipman and listed with David Walker of Ray White Upper North Shore, the extraordinary estate is expected to sell in the vicinity of its $18 million price point.

From the tennis court built to Australian Open standards to the award-winning swimming pool; the home dance studio to the imported greenhouse, this lavish property has plenty of wow factor at every turn.

Curated to be the ultimate entertainer’s retreat, the dream house doesn’t disappoint with an unparalleled home theatre by Signature Cinemas, built to standards rarely seen in a private home.

Alberto Vangi of Signature Cinemas said there is an extraordinary level of detail used to create the space.

“We created a room within a room to give it the ultimate acoustic treatment and to soundproof it with the least chance of any vibration. It has silk leather seating, and four-way masking so that no matter if you’re watching normal TV content, or a CinemaScope movie, the masking can move in four directions, giving you the ultimate size screen,” he explained, adding that the cinema also has a separate projection room.

“There are cinema-grade speakers specifically chosen to give you the most realistic sound possible. The time, detail and work that went into this project is next level.”

The fully appointed space has a commercial-grade projector, extensive acoustic treatments, ATMOS surround sound and a 4.9m screen.

On a vast 4047sq m parcel with a head-turning 1271sq m of internal living space, the grand homestead is a whole lot of house over three levels.

Beyond the stately double height entry foyer, the ground floor footprint alone is larger than the average Aussie house with a collection of elaborate entertaining areas for all occasions. The open plan lounge and dining zone is anchored by a statement Real Flame gas fireplace separating the formal and casual spaces and sliding doors spill out onto the expansive grounds.

A commercial-grade kitchen is home to Valcucine cabinetry, granite and timber surfaces, two fridges, an under counter freezer, Washtech dishwasher, osmosis water filter, Waldorf gas cook tops, a teppanyaki plate and Rational combi oven. There is also a huge butler’s pantry, island bench and a breakfast nook, as well as a full outdoor kitchen overlooking the pool.

That unique 25m heated infinity pool by Premier Pools earned a gong from the Master Builders Association back in 2023 and features in-floor cleaning, waterfalls, automated pool covers, sound speakers, a spa and lane markings.

Beside the pool, the neighbouring Plexicushion Prestige north/south-facing tennis court, which has an adjoining cabana with a wet bar, is suitable for professional play. Throughout the designer gardens there are established plants, a vegetable patch, a Hartley Botanic green house with heat lamps, lighting and SONOS sound, plus golf course-rated Sir Grange lawns.

There is an abundance of additional living space on the ground floor including a combined play room and study for the kids, a separate home office, a media room, a professional gym or dance studio complete with sprung floor, as well as TV systems, speakers and mirrored walls. A guest bedroom on the same level offers privacy with a walk-in wardrobe, a courtyard and shower ensuite.

Upstairs, a wide balcony overlooks the grounds and there are four more bedrooms with walk-in wardrobes and ensuites, however the primary suite is the real showstopper. It includes a dressing room with backlit display shelving, ensuite with a solid cast-iron bathtub, Onyx fireplace and a personal terrace.

The list goes on with a host of five-star inclusions such as a climate-controlled 2500-bottle wine cellar and tasting room, a 100sq m workshop beside the four-car garage featuring two EV chargers, a Crestron home automation system, a lift to all levels, zoned ducted air-conditioning and filtered air, hydronic under floor heating of all tiled areas, 21mm solid Tallowwood flooring, Louis Poulsen imported light features, Markilux electric awnings and electric blinds, Toto Neorest toilets, 60,000L buried rainwater tank.

The estate is close to Wahroonga Public School, the local train station, Knox Grammar, Barker and Abbotsleigh.

The Carrington Rd home is listed with David Walker on 0414 184 911 and Belinda Edwards on 0451 672 977.

The Australian regions where property buyers are cleaning up

Savvy property investors might do well to head to the regions for their next purchase, if market trends are correct.

That’s the news from CoreLogic’s quarterly regional Market Update, with data showing regional housing markets continuing to outperform properties in capital cities.

Mining regions in Queensland and Western Australia lead the charge once again, with regional towns in those states taking out the top 10 spots.

The Queensland town of Mackay was the top performer over the quatter, with 8.3 percent growth, followed by Geraldton in WA (8.2 percent) and Townsville (6.6 percent). Geraldton also experienced the strongest annual growth, up 28.7 percent. Western Australian regional towns also delivered the highest gross rental yields.

Report author and CoreLogic Australia economist Kaytlin Ezzy said affordability was a strong factor in the growth these areas had experienced.

“Regions like Mackay, Geraldton, and Townsville are seeing exceptional growth, driven

by affordability advantages compared to our major cities, as well as lifestyle appeal,”

Ms Ezzy said.

“This will have contributed to the strong demand but even with the impressive growth,

for those with the capacity to service a mortgage, they still remain attainable with

medians less than $600,000.”

However, CoreLogic noted that not all regional housing markets were showing signs of growth with Batemans Bay on the NSW far south coast the worst performer, seeing a fall in housing values of -2.7 percent. The Victorian town of Warrnambool was right behind, down -2.6 percent. The once-prosperous gold rush town of Ballarat in Victoria experienced the greatest fall over the year, down -6.3 percent.

Office Conversions Find New Life After Property Values Plunge

Developer efforts to convert emptying office towers into residential buildings have largely gone nowhere. That may be finally changing.

The prospect of transforming unused office space into much-needed housing seemed a logical way to resolve both issues. But few conversions moved forward because the cost of acquiring even an aging office building remained too high for the economics to pencil out.

Now that office vacancy has reached record levels, sellers are willing to take what they can. That has caused values to plunge for nothing-special buildings in second-rate locations, making the numbers on many of those properties now viable for conversions.

Seventy-three U.S. conversion projects have been completed this year, slightly up from 63 in 2023, according to real-estate services firm CBRE Group. But another 309 projects are planned or under way with about three-quarters of them office to residential. In all, about 38,000 units are in the works, CBRE said.

“The pipeline keeps replenishing itself,” said Julie Whelan , CBRE’s senior vice president of research.

In the first six months of this year, half of the $1.12 billion in Manhattan office-building purchases were by developers planning conversion projects, according to Ariel Property Advisors.

While New York,  Chicago  and Washington, D.C., are  leading the way, conversions also are popping up in Cincinnati, Phoenix, Houston and Dallas. A venture of General Motors and Bedrock announced Monday a sweeping redevelopment of Detroit’s famed Renaissance Center that includes converting one of its office buildings into apartments and a hotel.

In Cleveland, 12% of its total office inventory is either undergoing conversions or is planned for conversion. Many projects there are clustered around the city’s 10-acre Public Square. The former transit hub went through a $50 million upgrade about 10 years ago, adding fountains, an amphitheater and green paths.

“You end up with so much space that you paid so little for, that you can create amenities that you would never build if you were doing new construction,” said Daniel Neidich, chief executive of Dune Real Estate Partners, a private-equity firm that has teamed up with developer TF Cornerstone to invest $1 billion on about 20 conversion projects throughout the U.S. in the next three years.

Conversions won’t solve the office crisis, or make much of a dent in the U.S. housing shortage . And many obsolete office buildings don’t work as conversion projects because their floors are too big or due to other design issues. The 71 million square feet of conversions that are planned or under way only account for 1.7% of U.S. office inventory, CBRE said.

But city planners believe that conversions will play an important part in revitalising depressed business districts, which have been hollowed out by weak return-to-office rates in many places.

And developers are starting to find ways around longstanding obstacles in larger buildings. A venture led by GFP Real Estate is installing two light wells in a Manhattan office-conversion project at 25 Water St. to ensure that all the apartments will get sufficient light and air.

Cities such as Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Calgary, Alberta, have started to roll out new subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives to boost conversions.

The projects are breathing new life into iconic properties that no longer work as office buildings. The Flatiron Building in New York will be redeveloped into condominiums. In Cincinnati, the owner of the Union Central Life Insurance Building is converting it into more than 280 units of housing with a rooftop pool, health club and commercial space.

In the first couple of years of the pandemic, office building owners were able to hold on to their properties because of government assistance and because tenants continued to pay rent under long-term leases.

As leases matured and demand remained anaemic, landlords began to capitulate and dump buildings at enormous discounts to peak values. In Washington, D.C., for example, Post Brothers last year paid about $66 million for 2100 M Street, which had sold for as much as $150 million in 2007.

Washington, D.C., has been particularly hard hit by the office downturn because the federal government has been especially permissive in allowing employees to work from home .

“We’re able to make it work as a conversion because it was no longer priced as though it could be repositioned as office,” said Matt Pestronk , Post’s president and co-founder.

Increasingly, more deals are taking place behind the scenes as converters reach deals with creditors to buy debt on troubled office buildings and then push out the owners. GFP Real Estate reduced costs of its $240 million conversion of 25 Water Street by buying the debt at a discount and cutting deals with tenants to exit the building before their leases matured.

One of the first projects planned by the venture of Dune and TF Cornerstone likely will be the Wanamaker Building in Philadelphia. TF Cornerstone just purchased the debt on the office space in the building and is in the process of taking title.

“The banks are foreclosing and doing short sales,” said Neidich, Dune’s CEO. “There’s a ton of it going on.”

In Washington, D.C., a conversion of the old Peace Corps headquarters building near Dupont Circle is 70% leased just four months after opening, said developer Gary Cohen . Rents are higher than expected.

“If that’s the way to get people downtown, that’s what we have to do,” Cohen said.

Not all developers agree that the economics of conversions work, even at today’s low prices. Miki Naftali , who has converted more than five New York properties over the years, said he has been very actively looking at conversion candidates but hasn’t yet found a deal that works financially.

One of the issues facing converters is that even if an office building is dying, it often has a few existing tenants who would need to be relocated. Some buildings would need atriums to ensure that all the apartments have sufficient light and air.

“When you start to add everything up, if your costs get close to new construction, that’s when you get to the point that it doesn’t make financial sense,” Naftali said.

Some landlords are including clauses in leases that give them the right to evict tenants to make room for a major conversion. Others are keeping a small ownership stake when they sell buildings so that they can learn the conversion process for future buildings.

“The world is looking at these assets in a different way,” said developer William Rudin , whose company decided to learn the conversion process by keeping a stake in 55 Broad Street, a downtown New York office building it sold last year to a converter.

Hong Kong Is Becoming Hub for Financial Crime, U.S. Lawmakers Say

Leading China hawks in the U.S. House of Representatives are calling for a rethink on whether Hong Kong should continue to enjoy the cozy banking relationship it has with the U.S., saying the city is becoming a hub for money-laundering and sanctions evasion.

Hong Kong has turned into a major centre for the export of controlled Western technology to Russia; the creation of front companies to buy Iranian oil; the managing of “ghost ships” that serve North Korea, as well as other violations of U.S. trade controls, the bipartisan leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen .

The letter was signed by Rep. John Moolenaar , a Michigan Republican who chairs the committee, and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi , an Illinois Democrat who is the committee’s ranking member. The Wall Street Journal reviewed a draft of the letter, which was publicly released Monday.

“Hong Kong has shifted from a trusted global financial centre to a critical player in the deepening authoritarian axis of the People’s Republic of China, Iran, Russia and North Korea,” the lawmakers said. “We must now question whether longstanding U.S. policy towards Hong Kong, particularly towards its financial and banking sector, is appropriate.”

The lawmakers cited research, for example, that shows that nearly 40% of goods shipped from Hong Kong to Russia in 2023 were high-priority items such as semiconductors that Russia could use to prosecute its war in Ukraine.

Both lawmakers have worked extensively in the past with President-elect Donald Trump ’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, on China-related issues, including efforts to force TikTok’s Chinese owners to sell the app.

The allegation that Hong Kong is a money-laundering hub is unfounded, a spokesman for the Hong Kong government said. The spokesman added that Hong Kong has a vigorous enforcement system to prevent the illegal diversion of strategic commodities. A representative for Yellen didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The two lawmakers, whose committee focuses on competition with China and frequently makes bipartisan calls for a tougher approach to the country, asked Treasury for information on how it intends to combat money-laundering and sanctions evasion that use Hong Kong’s financial system.

Hong Kong, which has a special status within China, has seen its role as a global financial hub increasingly come into question as Beijing has muscled the city closer into its orbit, driving an exodus of expatriates. U.S. officials in particular have condemned Hong Kong authorities’ crackdown on dissidents under a tough national security law, though many Western banks have continued to do some business there.

Last week, a court in Hong Kong sentenced dozens of pro-democracy advocates for what Communist Party leadership viewed as subversion under that law. The Biden administration has called for their immediate and unconditional release. The government of the Hong Kong special administrative region said attacks on the “fair and open” sentencing are smears.

The same day, a Hong Kong government-sponsored financial summit played host to a number of global financial leaders, including Goldman Sachs Chairman David Solomon , Citi Chief Executive Jane Fraser and State Street CEO Ronald O’Hanley , according to a program of the event. Leaders from HSBC , BNP Paribas and other institutions also attended.

Banking leaders didn’t publicly discuss the court proceedings on the summit’s panels. A spokesman for State Street confirmed O’Hanley’s attendance. A spokeswoman for Citi declined to comment. Representatives for the other banks didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Earlier this month, Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi called on the Biden administration to sanction Hong Kong police, judges and prosecutors for their role in the arbitrary detentions of human-rights activists.

The exclusive club more Australians are joining

Australia has one of the highest proportions of millionaires in the world, new research has found. Finder’s Wealth Building Report 2024 has shown that one in 8 or 2.8 million Australians are members of the millionaires club, mostly thanks to growing home values. That figure more than halves to 1.1 million Australian when their principal place of residence is removed from net worth calculations.

The report delved into ways Australians are building wealth and discovered many were using similar strategies to get ahead. The top methods were:

  • Budgeting (38 percent of respondents)
  • Investing frequently (12 percent)
  • Paying off debt (9 percent)

Those with more than $1 million in net wealth were also more likely to have at least one passive income source.

Personal finance expert at Finder, Sarah Megginson, said most of the strategies were practical at any economic level.

“A lot of the habits and tactics of the rich are very practical things that can be implemented no matter how much you earn,” she said.

Ms Megginson suggested options such as investing in low cost options such as ETFs or salary sacrificing to pre tax make superannuation contributions as effective ways to build wealth over time.

“Reaching that coveted millionaire status might feel out of reach, but many investors started with nothing,” she said.

“Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. The sooner you cross the starting line, the better off you will be later in the race.”

What’s Flying Higher Than Bitcoin? The Software Company Buying Up Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices have surged about 40% since Election Day. MicroStrategy has climbed even faster.

The software company turned itself into a bitcoin buying machine in 2020 and now holds some $37 billion worth of tokens. For many individual investors, the stock is a more popular bitcoin play than the cryptocurrency itself and they are willing to pay up for it.

With a $91 billion market value, MicroStrategy is trading at more than twice the value of its underlying bitcoin. The shares have soared more than sixfold this year and 77% since Nov. 5, with traders betting that the digital-assets industry will flourish under President-elect Donald Trump . Bitcoin prices are hovering just below $95,000, after trading near $100,000 last week.

“MicroStrategy found a way to outperform bitcoin,” Michael Saylor , the company’s founder and executive chairman, said in an interview. “The way that we outperform bitcoin, in essence, is we just lever up bitcoin.”

And Saylor says he is just getting started. He unveiled an audacious plan just days before the election to hire investment banks to raise $42 billion in capital over three years through stock and bond offerings to buy more tokens. His company had $4.3 billion in convertible debt outstanding as of Oct. 29.

MicroStrategy’s mix of bitcoin maximalism and Wall Street-style financial engineering has paid off for its investors, but skeptics question whether it is sustainable.

Saylor’s heavy use of leverage, or borrowed money, to buy bitcoin backfired during the 2022 crypto-market meltdown when the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried ’s FTX dragged bitcoin prices below $16,000. Quarter after quarter, MicroStrategy incurred mounting losses tied to bitcoin and Saylor stepped down as CEO, a position he had held since 1989.

“This stock has become detached from reality,” said Andrew Left, a prominent short seller and founder of Citron Research.

Left describes himself as bullish on bitcoin itself and praised MicroStrategy in 2020 when it first began amassing bitcoin. But in a Thursday post on X , Left said he had taken out a bet against MicroStrategy, which caused its stock to tumble.

Some analysts warn MicroStrategy’s stunning run-up is part of a broader investor euphoria for speculative assets and will inevitably collapse. David Trainer, founder of research firm New Constructs, said MicroStrategy is a bad business by conventional metrics—for instance, it has posted a net loss for the past three quarters.

Michael Saylor’s heavy use of borrowed money to buy bitcoin backfired during the 2022 crypto-market meltdown. Photo: Alyssa Schukar for WSJ

“It’s symptomatic of a market that has become obsessed with believing in get-rich-quick schemes,” Trainer said. “If you like bitcoin, go buy bitcoin. But don’t invest in a company that’s losing money and also buying bitcoin, because then you’ve sort of doubled your risk.”

Some traders say a key part of the stock’s appeal is its volatility, which can help amplify their gains over a short period.

Garrett Shirey , a barber in Florence, Ala., bought one share of MicroStrategy at $436.53 in his retirement account Tuesday afternoon and sold it at $472.40 Wednesday morning, notching a quick profit.

Restricted from purchasing bitcoin in his Roth IRA account, the 39-year-old crypto enthusiast has had to settle for bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy stock and bitcoin exchange-traded funds. He holds some shares of the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF .

“I don’t think bitcoin went up 8% in the last 24 hours, but MicroStrategy did,” said Shirey, who has been investing in cryptocurrencies since the pandemic.

Saylor said he came up with the bitcoin strategy in 2020 when Covid-19 forced lockdowns and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero. MicroStrategy was competing with tech giants such as Microsoft and falling behind. The company was under pressure to return cash to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends.

“It was either a fast death or a slow death, or take a risk, do something out of the box,” he said.

Saylor has often boasted about MicroStrategy’s volatility. “When you embrace volatility, then you’re outperforming the S&P,” he said during last month’s earnings call.

MicroStrategy’s volatility has helped it find ready buyers for its repeated issuances of convertible bonds—debt that can eventually be converted into shares, if the stock price rises to a specified level. Such bonds are often purchased by hedge funds that protect themselves against a collapse in the stock’s price by going short, or placing a bet that the stock will fall. Such funds generally don’t focus on whether the company is a good long-term investment, and instead seek to profit from the volatility of its stock.

MicroStrategy is an attractive trade for convertible-bond arbitragers, said Vadim Iosilevich, a veteran hedge-fund trader in New York.

“We can definitely agree that the volatility will be there,” he said.

Some investors are turning to ETFs that seek to amplify the return of MicroStrategy shares using borrowed money or derivative contracts. One such fund, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF aims to double the daily return of the stock and has attracted $1.8 billion in assets since it launched in August. Other funds allow traders to make inverse bets.

Chase Furey , a 25-year-old trader in Newport Beach, Calif., said he started buying bitcoin-related stocks including Coinbase Global, MicroStrategy and BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF in October. Hoping to turbocharge the gains, he moved all of his investments, worth about $112,000, into the Defiance ETF instead and has grown his portfolio to about $400,000.

The Harvard graduate, who studied economics in college, convinced his parents to let him manage $700,000 of their retirement assets. He said he came up with a “less dangerous and smarter” plan for them, investing 27% of their portfolio in the Defiance ETF and the rest in MicroStrategy shares. The money has more than doubled to $1.8 million, he said.

“I think bitcoin could hit $400,000 and I think MicroStrategy could possibly 10x from where it is now by the end of next year, so that’s kind of my game plan with that,” he said.

Even some bitcoin bulls have expressed unease about the risks investors face by betting on MicroStrategy. Mike Novogratz , the billionaire CEO of crypto-trading firm Galaxy Digital , warned in an interview on CNBC Thursday that bitcoin could fall 20% after peaking at $100,000—in part because of leveraged bets on MicroStrategy available through some exchange-traded funds.

“The crypto community is levered to the gills right now, so there will be a correction,” Novogratz said.

Warren Buffett Donates Another $1 Billion. He Has Estate-Planning Advice for Everyone.

At age 94, Warren Buffett is reflecting on life, wealth and mortality.

The legendary investor’s company, Berkshire Hathaway , said Monday that Buffett will again give a portion of his Berkshire shares, in this case worth about $1.15 billion, to four family foundations. The donations leave him holding 206,363 Class A shares worth about $148 billion.

As he did last November, Buffett is converting 1,600 Class A shares into 2.4 million Class B shares, which hold less voting rights, before donating them to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, named for his late first wife, and to foundations led by his children.

The Thanksgiving-time donations supplement annual gifts to the four foundations, as well as to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that Buffett has made since 2006, when he unveiled plans to make major gifts throughout his lifetime.

In a message accompanying Monday’s news of the donations, Buffett discussed his plans for his three children, Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett , to distribute the Berkshire shares he owns at his death. Buffett told The Wall Street Journal in June that the Gates Foundation had no money coming after he dies.

The three Buffett children, now in their 60s and 70s, will need to decide unanimously what philanthropic purposes their father’s money serves. Buffett said in his new comments to shareholders that the requirement will give his children some degree of protection from an expected bombardment of requests.

“Those who can distribute huge sums are forever regarded as ‘targets of opportunity,’ ” Buffett wrote. “This unpleasant reality comes with the territory. Hence, the ‘unanimous decision’ provision. That restriction enables an immediate and final reply to grant-seekers: ‘It’s not something that would ever receive my brother’s consent.’ And that answer will improve the lives of my children.”

Buffett wrote that while potential successor trustees have been chosen, he hopes that Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett are themselves the ones to distribute all of his assets.

“I know the three well and trust them completely,” he wrote.

Buffett’s huge position in Berkshire means a rapid selling of his stock could jolt the share price. He wrote that his children should distribute his holdings gradually, and in a manner that “in no way betrays the exceptional trust Berkshire shareholders bestowed upon Charlie Munger and me.”

Buffett offered a suggestion for all parents, wealthy or not: “When your children are mature, have them read your will before you sign it.” He said it is better for children to be able to ask questions when a parent is still able to respond.

In discussing his fortune, Buffett, ever the teacher, highlighted the importance of compounding, especially after many years of investing.

“The real action from compounding takes place in the final twenty years of a lifetime,” he wrote. “By not stepping on any banana peels, I now remain in circulation at 94 with huge sums in savings—call these units of deferred consumption—that can be passed along to others who were given a very short straw at birth.” undefined undefined Berkshire’s Class B shares have rallied 34% this year, compared with a 26% gain by the S&P 500. Earlier this year the company joined a small club of U.S. businesses worth more than $1 trillion.

The country house that was destined to be built

There’s a sense of inevitably about this home in regional NSW, or, at least, destiny. When owners David and Pippa Beak, of Beak & Sons fame, decided to buy a property outside of Sydney, Pippa already had a place in mind. The Sydney couple were looking for a second home where they could entertain family and friends, as well as business contacts associated with their company, Mr Beak’s, who manufacture ready made meals, sausages and other meat products available through major supermarkets.

The locality of Kerrabee, equidistant between Mudgee, Muswellbrook and Rylstone, is prime farming land, ideal for raising top quality cattle. It also had a 1.2ha property Pippa was already familiar with.

“Pippa’s father attempted to buy this farm about 50 years ago and missed out,” says architect Michael Bell. “It turned out it was available, so they bought it.”

While the farmland was perfect for running Angus, a renowned carcass breed, the existing house was not the light-filled farmhouse the couple had envisaged. However, it did offer clues to the best position for a new home.

“When you’re working with a new site, you don’t always know the land well and you have to make sure to pick somewhere where it will not flood,” Bell says.

“The original site is a good place to start because the house had been there for a number of years (without incident).”

The old house would have to make way for the new, but instead of demolishing the existing three-bedroom dwelling, which was relatively new, it was relocated further up the hill to function as additional accommodation when guests come to stay.

The farmhouse kitchen is perfect for entertaining. Image: Justin Alexander

For the main site, Bell designed a welcoming four-bedroom house in a classic farmhouse style that functions like a contemporary home. Key to creating the look and feel the owners desired was the corrugated steel pitched roof with deep wraparound verandas to offer protection from the summer heat while still allowing the sun to penetrate the house in winter.

“They wanted something that appeared established,” Bell says. “They liked the look of the large rooms and the wraparound verandas, but it was also important that the kitchen faced east to get that morning sun and they wanted to be able to look across the garden.”

Internally, 3.2m high ceilings in all the rooms create a sense of space, light and old world charm, while slightly wider French doors carry the theme through without interrupting the flow.

“Even though the language is that traditional style, we started with 3.2m high ceilings, and we have those large doors to get that open feel at the same time as maintaining the look of the old style house,” he says. “It’s traditional, warm and familiar but it is also open and light like a modern house.

“There’s also plenty of light and air which some people feel they will not get in a house like this.”

While it is often just the owners at the house, they regularly cater for guests, so the open plan kitchen needed to be suitable for managing larger groups as well as the couple’s day-to-day needs.

An expansive island bench with marble top and open shelving works in well with the Shaker-style profile to provide the entertainer’s kitchen David and Pippa required.

“Pippa is a keen cook and she has access to the best food,” Bell says. “A big part of David’s business is networking and they will often have up to 14 visitors at a time.”

The generous living area has the ability to be partially closed off when desired, which is especially useful in winter when the fire is in use, but internal French doors and a central ceiling fan ensure air flow is maintained.

The living room can be closed off to maintain temperatures. Image: Justin Alexander

In keeping with the focus on entertaining, design work on the property extended outdoors, with a fenced-in pool and classic cabana along with not one, but three outdoor cooking facilities.

“David grew up in Argentina so he wanted a Brazilian barbecue, along with a pizza oven and a standard barbecue,” Bell says. “They also have grown children and grandchildren so the house is serving that extended family.”

While the property is very much a working farm, Bell says there are some departures from the traditional layout.

“We put the house away from the sheds and up the valley a bit further. It’s a ‘city people’ thing to do,” he says. “Farmers are on the land all the time and they will have the house close to the sheds so they don’t have to walk.

“The main thing was to be able to hook up to the existing electricity otherwise you would have to put up new poles and wires. The house was a fraction too big to be completely off grid but it’s all solar with diesel back up.”

Although construction was completed during COVID lockdowns, the work schedule was relatively unaffected. Scone builder Darryl Rossington from Rossington Building Contractors was tasked with completing the construction of the house.

“Because we live in Kiama, we weren’t affected by the Sydney lockdowns while this was built. We got most of it done prior to the supply chain issues,” says Bell.   

Although Bell visited the site regularly, having a builder experienced in classic farmhouse-style buildings was essential.

“If you have builders who are used to doing our kind of work, using people like Darryl makes things easier,” Bell says.

“If a builder who is used to doing contemporary work is asking me about things like gutter profiles, it slows things down.

“With Darryl, I don’t have to talk about those things, and it’s important because you can’t get up there on site at the drop of a hat.

“You need to be able to rely on them.”

Buy the House First, Get Married Later: Couples’ New Math

The big wedding can wait. Couples are deciding they would rather take the plunge into homeownership.

In reshuffling the traditional order of adult milestones, some couples may decide not to marry at all, while others say they are willing to delay a wedding. Buying a home is as much, if not more of a commitment, they reason. It helps them build financial stability when the housing market is historically unaffordable.

In 2023, about 555,000 unmarried couples said that they had bought their home in the previous year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data. That is up 46% from 10 years earlier, when just under 381,000 couples did the same.

Unmarried couples amounted to more than 11% of all U.S. home sales. The percentage has climbed steadily over the past two decades—a period in which marriage rates have fallen. These couples make up triple the share of the housing market that they did in the mid-1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors.

To make it work, couples must look past the significant risk that the relationship could blow up, or something could happen to one partner. Without a marriage certificate, living situations and finances are more likely to fall into limbo, attorneys say.

Mark White, 59 years old, and Sheila Davidson, 62, bought a lakeside townhouse together in Newport News, Va., in 2021. But only her name is on the deed. He sometimes worries about what would happen to the house if something happened to her. They have told their children that he should inherit the property, but don’t have formal documentation.

“We need to get him on the deed at some point,” Davidson said.

White and Davidson both had previous marriages, and decided they don’t want to do it again. They also believe tying the knot would affect their retirement benefits and tax brackets.

Financial foundation

Couples that forgo or postpone marriage say they are giving priority to a financial foundation over a legal one. The median homeowner had nearly $400,000 in wealth in 2022, compared with roughly $10,000 for renters, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances.

Even couples that get married first are often focused on the house. Many engaged couples ask for down-payment help in lieu of traditional wedding gifts.

“A mortgage feels like a more concrete step toward their future together than a wedding,” said Emily Luk, co-founder of Plenty, a financial website for couples.

Elise Dixon and Nick Blue, both 29, watched last year as the Fed lifted rates, ostensibly pushing up the monthly costs on a mortgage. The couple, together for four years, decided to use $80,000 of their combined savings, including an unexpected inheritance she received from her grandfather, to buy a split-level condo in Washington, D.C.

“Buying a house is actually a bigger commitment than an engagement,” Dixon said.

They did that, too, getting engaged eight months after their April 2023 closing date. They are planning a small ceremony on the Maryland waterfront next year with around 75 guests, which they expect to cost less than they spent on the home’s down payment and closing costs.

The ages at which people buy homes and enter marriages have both been trending upward. The median age of first marriage for men is 30.2, and for women, 28.6, according to the Census Bureau. That is up from 29.3 and 27.0 a decade earlier. The National Association of Realtors reported this year that the median age of first-time buyers was 38, up from 31 in 2014.

Legal protections

Family lawyers—and parents—sometimes suggest protections in case the unmarried couple breaks up. A prenup-like cohabitation agreement spells out who keeps the house, and how to divide the financial obligations. Without the divorce process, a split can be even messier, legal advisers say.

Family law attorneys say more unmarried people are calling for legal advice, but often balk at planning for a potential split, along with the cost of drawing up such agreements, which can range from $1,000 to $3,000, according to attorney-matching service Legal Match.

Dixon, the Washington condo buyer, said she brushed off her mother’s suggestion that she draft an agreement with Blue detailing how much she invested, figuring that their mutual trust and equal contributions made it unnecessary. (They are planning to get a prenup when they wed, she said.)

There are a lot of questions couples don’t often think about, such as whether one owner has the option to buy the other out, and how quickly they need to identify a real-estate agent if they decide to sell, said Ryan Malet, a real-estate lawyer in the D.C. region.

The legal risks often don’t deter young home buyers.

Peyton Kolb, 26, and her fiancé figured that a 150-person wedding would cost $200,000 or more. Instead, they bought a three-bedroom near Tampa with a down payment of less than $50,000.

“We could spend it all on one day, or we could invest in something that would build equity and give us space to grow,” said Kolb, who works in new-home sales.

Owning a place where guests could sleep in an extra bedroom, instead of on the couch in their old rental, “really solidified us starting our lives together,” Kolb said. Their wedding is set for next May.

Homes and weddings have both gotten more expensive, but there are signs that home prices are rising faster. From 2019 to 2023, the median sales price for existing single-family homes rose by 44%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The average cost of a wedding increased 25% over that time, according to annual survey data from The Knot.

Rent versus buy

Roughly three quarters of couples move in together before marriage, and may already be considering the trade-offs between buying and renting. The cost of both has risen sharply over the past few years, but rent rises regularly while buying with a fixed-rate mortgage caps at least some of the costs.

An $800 rent hike prompted Sonali Prabhu and Ryan Willis, both 27, to look at buying. They were already paying $3,200 in monthly rent on their two-bedroom Austin, Texas, apartment, and felt they had outgrown it while working from home.

In October, they closed on a $425,000 three-bed, three-bath house. Their mortgage payment is $200 more than their rent would have been, but they have more space. They split the down payment and she paid about $50,000 for some renovations.

Her dad’s one request was that the house face east for good fortune, she said. Both parents are eagerly awaiting an engagement.

“We’re very solid right now,” said Prabhu, who plans to get married in 2026. “The marriage will come when it comes.”

Emerging-Markets Stocks Have Rarely Been So Hated. It’s Time to Buy

The last time emerging markets were doing this badly the term “emerging markets” hadn’t been coined yet.

That spells opportunity, and the greatest spoils might go to those investors who are the boldest and also willing to look past that poorly-defined category. The benchmark for how emerging markets stocks are doing is a widely followed index maintained by MSCI that has returned less than 4% annually in the past five years, compared with nearly 12% for global equities and more than 15% for U.S. stocks.

Dig into any of those broad categories, though, and there are clear leaders and laggards. A whopping 65% of the MSCI All Country World Index’s market value, including nine of its top 10 stocks, were American as of the end of October. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been dragged down in large part since 2020 by China, where a housing crisis and a heavy-handed approach to technology firms by leader Xi Jinping have depressed valuations. Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings were two of the world’s most valuable companies four years ago, before the tech crackdown.

If not for the massive surge of the MSCI index’s Chinese components in September on renewed stimulus hopes, the overall picture for emerging-markets stocks would be even worse. India, in no small part because it isn’t China, has seen huge foreign and domestic investor interest and now has the third largest weighting in the emerging-markets index. But it also is one of the world’s pricier markets .

Emerging markets outperformed developed market stocks in the century’s first decade as commodity prices boomed and the tech and housing bubbles dented the U.S. market. Today, though, they are much cheaper as a multiple of earnings, and not solely because of China.

Just buying an emerging-markets index fund and betting on the performance pendulum swinging back could be a decent strategy. Bolder investors might be able to do better: The most enticing opportunities are where skepticism is highest.

For example, Mexico and the multinational companies that use it as a base to sell products destined for the U.S. are in President-elect Donald Trump ’s crosshairs. Newly-elected leftist President Claudia Sheinbaum also faces violent drug cartels and protests over changes to the country’s judiciary. But the MSCI Mexico Index has gone absolutely nowhere, with a slightly negative return over the past decade and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 times—less than half that of the U.S. market.

And Mexico is pricey compared with South Africa, Brazil and Turkey, which fetch multiples on the same measure of about 9.8 times, eight times and five times, respectively. All three also face significant domestic problems and leaders who have mismanaged their economies. But even poorly-run countries can have long-term promise, and occasionally some short-term charms: Brazil’s dividend yield, for example, is about 6%, or five times that of the S&P 500 index.

Another way to profit as a savvy emerging-markets investor? By reading what is on the label and then ignoring it. MSCI’s benchmark has had an odd definition of what qualifies that mostly matters to professional money managers.

For example, both South Korea and Taiwan are major emerging markets, but their citizens are wealthier than those of developed Portugal or Greece. With leading high-tech companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co . and Samsung Electronics , educated workforces and excellent infrastructure, they have more in common with neighbouring Japan, a developed market. MSCI cites market access issues that hold them back. That might still make them attractive places to invest, but the rapid growth a country enjoys by becoming modern, educated and wealthy—the sort of thing that has people so excited about India’s long-term potential—are now behind them.

Getting booted from the index can create anomalies too. Israel, which is richer than Britain or France , was included in the emerging-markets index until 2010 for what seems like geographical reasons. Then it went from being a notable emerging-markets investing destination to irrelevancy for many fund managers.

Because it is the only officially “developed” market in the Middle East, Israel is now part of the little-tracked MSCI Europe and Middle East Index created that year instead of the more-followed MSCI Europe, which dates to 1986. It is also a minuscule part of MSCI EAFE, which tracks 21 non-U.S. developed markets. With world class healthcare and tech companies like Teva Pharmaceutical Industries  and Check Point Software in the index, “Startup Nation’s” stocks trade at barely half of the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the tech-heavy U.S. market.

And there are other stock markets just waiting to join, or rejoin, the official emerging-markets club. By the time they do the best gains might have been had. Take Argentina , which was demoted to “stand-alone” status three years ago because it was difficult to invest there. It has had a blistering return in dollars of almost 50% a year in the three years through October compared with a negative return for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over that time.

While far from a foolproof investing strategy, betting that the last shall be first and buying what feels uncomfortable could pay off when it comes to beaten-down emerging-markets stocks.

How to Make AI Less of a Power Guzzler

Artificial intelligence is poised to transform both work and everyday life. But it has a dark underside: AI computer centres consume enormous amounts of electricity and water, to power their processing chips and cool the heat they emit.

Annual U.S. electricity use by data centres of all types will rise from 3% to 4% of the nation’s total today to between 11% and 12% in 2030, with AI being the main driver, according to projections from consulting firm McKinsey.

Meantime, AI’s demand for water globally in 2027 could account for more than the total annual amount withdrawn for use in Denmark or half of that in the U.K., according to researchers at the University of California, Riverside and University of Texas at Arlington.

All of that heavy use is causing logistical and public-image problems for the industry. Some utilities struggle to supply the needs of AI providers, and communities push back, fearing the added use will boost power prices and deplete water supplies.

The biggest AI providers, including Amazon , Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Meta and Microsoft , say they are working to be both carbon-neutral and replenish more water than they use—even as they continue to build massive data centres.

“It will be harder to build data centres, especially where energy already is at a premium or water might be scarce,” says Ed Anderson, research vice president at technology advisory firm Gartner. But, he adds, “the economic opportunity is rich enough that the providers will find a way.”

Below are some of the steps tech companies and researchers are hoping will reduce AI’s appetite for power and water.

Making chips more efficient

One way of addressing power consumption is to make chips less power hungry. Nvidia , the largest maker of AI processors, says its newest ones, called Blackwell, will be about 25 times as energy efficient as its previous high-end version. Meanwhile, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are designing their own processing chips, in part to cut costs but also to make them use less power.

“Each generation has been significantly more efficient than the prior one,” says Google’s Partha Ranganathan , a vice president and engineering fellow, speaking of his company’s processing units.

Different sources for water

Equipment used to cool data centres creates another issue: where to get the vast amount of water these systems consume. Google says its data centers globally used about 6.1 billion gallons of water in 2023, equivalent to the water used to irrigate and maintain 40 golf courses in the Southwest each year.

OpenAI’s GPT-3 model, meantime, consumes the equivalent of a 16.9-ounce bottle of water for every 10 to 50 responses it provides to users’ queries, according to the researchers at UC Riverside and UT Arlington. OpenAI declined to comment on the finding.

Data-centre water typically comes from municipal water systems. But in an era of water shortages, diverting drinking water for an industrial use has created tensions in some locales. That has sent AI companies searching for other sources, including rainwater, treated wastewater or water left over from factory processes.

Amazon, for example, uses recycled wastewater for cooling at its Santa Clara, Calif., data centers. The water comes from the city’s sewage-treatment system after it undergoes a three-step process that removes 99% of impurities.

Smarter training for AI

Some researchers have experimented with carefully controlling what kind and how much information an AI model takes in during training. Usually, training a so-called large language model AI, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot, involves ingesting hundreds of billions of words from the internet and elsewhere, then learning the relationships among them.

And that is energy and water intensive. Training an AI model called BLOOM over a 3½-month period consumed enough electricity to power the average U.S. home for 41 years, according to a Stanford University report.

As for water, training one of Google’s AI models, known as LaMDA, used about two million liters of it, both to produce the electricity used and keep the computers cool—enough to fill about 5,000 bathtubs, according to Shaolei Ren , a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of California, Riverside. Google declined to comment on the research, but said it is “committed to climate-conscious cooling of our data centres.”

One possible solution is to have AIs remove redundancy and low-quality data, instead of just vacuuming up the whole internet. The goal is a much smaller set of data that the AI system can more easily sift through when a user asks it a question.

This can lower electricity consumption, according to some researchers.

AI systems that limit the information they take in are also less likely to “hallucinate”—give false or misleading answers—and can respond in ways that are more on-point because of the higher quality of the data they contain, experts say. Microsoft found that one of its pared-down AIs exceeded that of vastly larger ones in measurements of  common sense and logical reasoning .

Dialling down the juice

Researchers at several universities have found that capping the amount of electricity used by AI computers has only a minor effect on the outcome, such as slightly more processing time.

Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Northeastern University say that reducing the power to one of Meta’s AIs by 22% to 24% slowed the speed at which the AI responded to a query by only 5% to 8%. “These techniques can lead to significant reduction in energy consumption,” the researchers say. They add that the method also caused the processors to run at a lower temperature—which could trim the need for cooling.

Meta declined to comment on the research, but said it has had efforts to boost data-centre energy efficiency “since we started designing our first data center over a decade ago.”

Meantime, a team at the University of Michigan, University of Washington and University of California, San Diego devised an algorithm to modulate the use of power during training. The technique could cut power use by up to 30% , they say.

Show users AI’s impact

Some researchers believe companies should give users more context about the environmental impact of AI, to let them make more-informed decisions about the technology. Ren, of UC Riverside, proposes that AI providers disclose the approximate amount of electricity and water each query consumes—akin to how Google tells people searching for flights the amount of carbon emissions each trip would create.

Another proposal is to devise a rating system for the power efficiency of AI systems, akin to the government’s Energy Star ratings for home appliances and other products. Such a system could help people choose AI models for differing tasks based on their energy consumption, according to Sasha Luccioni , an AI researcher at Hugging Face, a company that makes machine-learning tools.

Using greener power

Academics and others have come up with other proposals to minimise AI’s environmental impact by tapping into green energy. For instance, companies might build more data centers in countries with abundant, low-emission power, such as hydropower in Norway or geothermal in Iceland. Or companies might do AI calculations at different locations at different times of the day, such as deploying computer centers with high use of solar power during the daytime or wind-powered ones when wind is more reliable at night.

Chilling the computers

Data-centre computers put out tremendous amounts of heat, and their temperature must be kept in a certain range, often 64 to 72 degrees, to prevent damaging the electronics. Traditionally, this has been done by high-power air conditioning. But air conditioning uses up to 40% of all the electricity consumed by a typical data centre, while devices called cooling towers that expel the heat to the outside air use a lot of water.

In response, the data-centre industry is moving to liquid cooling, which circulates a special liquid or cold water to “cold plates” that sit on top of the processor chips and keep them at a safe and efficient temperature range. The system, called direct-to-chip liquid cooling, uses less power than the traditional method—about 30% less, Nvidia says—because liquid is vastly better at removing heat from the electronics than blowing cold air over them.

Another method under development, called immersion cooling, involves placing the computers themselves inside big tanks of cooling liquid. While showing early promise, there are environmental concerns about the chemicals often used in the setup, says Mark Russinovich , chief technology officer of Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing unit.

Some companies, meanwhile, are using computing gear that can withstand higher temperatures and doesn’t need as much cooling. Google says its data centres already are 1.8 times as energy efficient as the typical data centre, which it achieved in part by raising the inside temperature to 80 degrees. For every one-degree boost in their temperature, data centres can save 4% to 5% in energy costs, according to the Energy Star program.